Business confidence expected to hit 36.1 points by February 2027 — CBN survey

Business confidence among formal-sector enterprises is expected to strengthen significantly over the next six months, reaching 36.1 index points by February 2027.

This is according to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Business Expectation Survey.

The projection follows an improvement in the Business Confidence Index (BCI), which rose to 14.8 points in August 2026 from 5.7 points in July, signaling stronger optimism among businesses.

Respondents attributed the positive sentiment mainly to increased demand (25.9%), economic diversification (18.3%) and the monetary policy stance (14.2%).

Confidence is projected to rise further to 23.6 points in September 2026 and 30.1 points in November, before reaching 36.1 points in February 2027.

What the survey is saying

The positive outlook cut across the major sectors in August, with industry recording the strongest monthly improvement.

The survey shows that the industry sector rose from 11.5 points in July to 17.1 points in August, while Services increased from 3.6 to 13.3 points. Agriculture also strengthened, moving from 3.4 to 13.9 points.

The outlook for the next six months remained positive across all three sectors, suggesting that businesses expect operating conditions to improve over the medium term.

• At the subsector level, Electricity, Gas and Water Supply recorded the highest optimism regarding current operations, with an index of 50.0 points.
• Businesses also reported their strongest expectations for the Volume of Total Orders, at 20.3 points, followed by the Volume of Business Activity index at 19.7 points. The readings point to expectations of stronger demand and relatively stable business activity.
• The Construction sector recorded the highest expansion outlook at 73.9 index points.
• However, employment expectations for September remained generally subdued, with the Electricity, Gas and Water Supply sector the only one reporting a neutral hiring outlook.
• Despite the improving outlook, businesses continued to identify several factors constraining their operations.
• High or multiple taxation was ranked as the biggest constraint in August, with an index of 67.8 points, followed by insecurity at 66.9 points and high interest rates at 63.5 points.
• High bank charges, at 61.1 points, and competition, at 59.5 points, were also significant concerns, according to the survey.
• Other major constraints included unclear economic laws and an unfavourable economic climate, both at 57.7 points. Unfavourable political conditions and poor infrastructure recorded 56.3 and 55.7 points respectively, the survey noted.
• Businesses also expressed expectations of a gradual appreciation of the naira against the US dollar.
• The exchange-rate outlook index stood at 8.5 points for August, rising to 15.1 points for September, 23.5 points over the next three months and 31.8 points over the next six months.
• Respondents nevertheless expect borrowing costs to remain relatively high. Borrowing-rate indices remained within the 18–19 point range across the different outlook periods, pointing to expectations of only a marginal easing in financing costs.

Average capacity utilisation among businesses was largely unchanged, edging down marginally from 55.9% in July to 55.8% in August.

The Mining and Quarrying sector recorded the highest capacity utilisation during the review period.

Get up to speed

The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) earlier noted that Nigeria’s business environment expanded further in August 2026, with the composite Current Business Performance Index (CBPI) rising to 112.7 points from 108.6 points in July.

• The reading represented the highest level since February 2026.
• Also, the Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria in its Purchasing Managers’ Index report, noted that Nigeria’s private sector recorded its strongest improvement in business conditions in 29 months in August 2026.

Also, Nairametrics earlier reported that Nigeria’s overall economic activity expanded for the third consecutive month in August 2026, with the Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rising to 52.7 points from 51.1 points in July.

What you should know

Nairametrics earlier reported that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 4.43% year-on-year in real terms in the second quarter of 2026, up from 4.23% recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The latest growth rate represents a 0.20 percentage-point improvement from a year earlier, pointing to a modest expansion in overall economic activity.

The performance was supported by stronger growth in agriculture and services, while growth in the industrial sector slowed significantly compared with the same period in 2025.