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The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, on Wednesday presented President Bola Tinubu administration’s reform scorecard, stating how the government’s economic reforms have affected government finances, foreign exchange reserves, investment, inflation, household welfare and economic growth.
The presentation, which assessed the reforms against a counterfactual scenario of what could have happened without them, showed that the government generated N20.4 trillion in incremental resources but incurred N30.64 trillion in incremental expenses.
It also noted improvements in debt sustainability, external reserves, capital importation, inflation and economic growth, while acknowledging that the reforms have imposed significant costs on households and that more work is required.
The government said it borrowed N11.9 trillion between June 2023 and December 2025, but noted that the amount would have been significantly higher without the fiscal space created by its economic reforms.
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Here are 10 key takeaways from the scorecard
1. FG gets N5.4 trillion out of N15.8 trillion subsidy savings
According to the Minister’s presentation, the government saved N15.8 trillion from the subsidy removal, but the Federal Government got only 34%, which is N5.4 trillion based on the statutory FAAC allocation formula.
It added that other incremental revenue contributed N3.1 trillion, mainly from remittances by government owned entities. Incremental borrowing accounted for the largest share at N11.9 trillion.
2. Incremental spending reached N30.64 trillion
The government’s incremental expenses amounted to N30.64 trillion, significantly higher than the N20.4 trillion in incremental resources generated.
The largest spending item was wage adjustments, including the minimum wage increase, wage awards and allowances, which accounted for N9.39 trillion. External debt service costs arising from exchange rate depreciation accounted for another N9.37 trillion, while strategic infrastructure development took N6.47 trillion.
Other major expenses included N3.14 trillion for incremental electricity subsidies and N1.24 trillion in domestic debt service costs linked to higher monetary policy rates.
3. Wage adjustments alone were almost twice the subsidy savings
The scorecard highlighted the scale of government’s wage-related interventions, noting that wage adjustments alone were nearly twice the Federal Government’s share of subsidy savings.
Of the N30.64 trillion in incremental expenses, wage adjustments accounted for N9.39 trillion compared with the N5.4 trillion in subsidy savings received by the Federal Government.
The government said the spending included the minimum wage increase, wage awards and allowances.
4. Two-thirds of reform-related spending came from incremental resources
The government said about two-thirds of its reform-related incremental spending was funded through the additional resources generated from the reforms.
The presentation showed that N20.4 trillion of the N30.64 trillion in incremental expenses was funded by incremental resources, while the remaining N10.24 trillion was absorbed within the existing revenue base.
This suggests that the government relied not only on additional revenue and subsidy savings but also on the existing revenue base to meet the costs associated with the reforms.
5. Debt service to revenue has fallen from about 100% to around 50%
One of the government’s key indicators of fiscal improvement is the decline in the debt service to revenue ratio.
The scorecard showed that the ratio was approximately 100% in 2022 and is projected at around 50% in 2026. The government estimated that without the reforms, the ratio could have reached between 100% and 200%.
The government also said the stock of Ways and Means financing, which stood at about N30 trillion as a legacy liability in May 2023, has been curtailed. Without reforms, it estimated that the figure could have risen to at least N60 trillion.
6. Nigeria’s foreign reserves have risen to $52.5 billion
The scorecard pointed to a significant strengthening of Nigeria’s external buffers.
Gross foreign exchange reserves increased from about $35 billion in May 2023 to $52.5 billion in July 2026. Net foreign reserves also rose from approximately $3 billion in 2023 to $34.8 billion at the end of 2025.
The government also highlighted the narrowing of the gap between the official and parallel exchange rates, with the premium falling from more than 60% to below 5%.
It said the current account balance also strengthened from a $1.21 billion surplus in 2023 to a $14.04 billion surplus in 2025.
7. Capital importation and FDI have recovered
The government said Nigeria’s investment climate has improved significantly since the reforms began.
Total capital importation increased from $1.13 billion in the first quarter of 2023 to $10.37 billion in the first quarter of 2026. Foreign direct investment also increased from $895 million in 2022 to $4.01 billion in 2025.
The government also pointed to a sharp increase in stock market capitalisation, which rose from about N31 trillion in May 2023 to approximately N150 trillion in June 2026.
Sovereign Eurobond yields also declined from about 10% to 13% to approximately 7% to 8% by mid-2026, which the government described as evidence of improved investor confidence.
8. Inflation has started to moderate, but households still face pressure
The government acknowledged that the reforms initially created significant economic pain but argued that inflation has begun to moderate.
Headline inflation declined from 22.41% in May 2023 to 15.91% in June 2026, while food inflation fell from 24.82% to 17.52% over the period covered by the presentation.
However, the presentation described household welfare as a work in progress, noting that poverty remains high and the recovery is still incomplete.
The scorecard also showed the increase in petrol prices from approximately N185 per litre in May 2023 to between N1,100 and N1,400, while the minimum wage increased from N30,000 to N70,000.
9. Economic growth has strengthened across key indicators
The government said the reforms have helped reverse the direction of Nigeria’s economic growth.
Real GDP growth increased from 2.31% in the first quarter of 2023 to 3.89% in the first quarter of 2026. Real GDP per capita growth, which was negative or contracting in May 2023, has also returned to positive territory.
Non-oil GDP growth is projected at about 4% in 2026, compared with less than 2% previously, while manufacturing growth increased to 3.29% in the first quarter of 2026.
Oil production also improved from a range of about 1.2 million to 1.4 million barrels per day to approximately 1.6 million to 1.75 million barrels per day.
10. FG says reforms will continue without reversal
The government said it would maintain the reform programme while focusing on translating macroeconomic improvements into tangible benefits for households.
According to the scorecard, the administration plans to continue implementing the Nigeria Tax Act and undertake further fiscal reforms covering budgeting, reporting and accountability. It also expects the tax-to-GDP ratio to continue rising and wants to push headline inflation towards single-digit levels.
The government also identified exchange rate unification and predictability, poverty reduction, agricultural interventions to lower food prices, greater collaboration with states and local governments, and improved prioritisation of government spending as key areas for the next phase of reforms.
