CBN plans N5.8 trillion Treasury bills auction, largest mop up in 2026

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) plans to auction N5.8 trillion in Treasury Bills (NTBs) between July and September 2026, marking a sharp increase in the domestic borrowing plan and more than four times higher than the net target in the previous Q2.

The increased issuance plan contained in the CBN’s Q3 2026 NTB Issuance Programme comes as the government seeks to excess manage liquidity, finance its fiscal deficit of about N29.20 trillion, and sustain attractive yields for investors.

The programme obtained by Nairametrics outlines thirteen auction dates between July 1 and September 23, 2026 suggesting that the monetary authorities might further intensify its liquidity mopping strategy seen in series of primary market NTB and OMO auctions in recent months.

After accounting for approximately N2.64 trillion in maturing Treasury Bills during the quarter, the programme implies a net new borrowing of about N3.16 trillion, reinforcing the government’s more aggressive domestic debt strategy compared with previous quarters.

What the data is saying:

The Q3 issuance programme shows a clear preference for longer-dated securities, with the 364-day Treasury Bill accounting for N4.0 trillion, representing about 69% of the total planned issuance.

• The CBN plans to issue N900 billion in 91-day Treasury Bills, N900 billion in 182-day bills, and N4.0 trillion in 364-day bills, bringing the total planned issuance to N5.8 trillion.
• Treasury Bills worth approximately N2.644 trillion are scheduled to mature during the quarter, comprising N550.83 billion in 91-day bills, N503.19 billion in 182-day bills, and N1.591 trillion in 364-day bills.
• The programme, therefore, translates to an estimated net new borrowing of N3.16 trillion after deducting payments for old bills expected to mature during the quarter.

The largest auction sessions are scheduled for July 8, July 29, August 5, August 12, August 26, and September 2, with each expected to offer about N700 billion.

The programme also contains two notable gaps on July 22 and August 19, when Treasury Bills worth N378.43 billion and N429.23 billion respectively will mature without corresponding new issuances, resulting in temporary liquidity injections before subsequent auctions absorb the excess funds.

Expert views:

Market analysts say the expanded programme reflects a deliberate policy effort to manage liquidity, keep interest rates elevated, and support exchange rate stability, although they acknowledge the higher financing costs associated with the strategy.

Charles Fakrogha, Chief Executive Officer of ECL Asset Management Limited, said the programme demonstrates deliberate economic planning aimed at controlling money supply, inflation, and exchange rate stability.

• “The CBN, the DMO, and the Ministry of Finance are looking at alternative ways to manage the economy — in terms of money supply, inflation, and exchange rates. CBN coming out to say this is the amount of Treasury Bills they want to sell to the public shows that they have looked at the available statistics and determined how much money needs to be withdrawn back to the CBN to control money supply,” he said.
• “For me, it shows planning — and at the same time, an attempt to manage the economy. As long as the plan is implemented as intended and the effects monitored within Q3, I think it is a good one.”
• On the yield level, Fakrogha was candid about the trade-off. “All the bills are coming at above 18%. Yes, the cost is there, and I know they will have taken into consideration some of those cost elements. But for every manager of an economy, the goal is how to control inflation. Investors will look at those rates — they are very attractive — and begin to balance their portfolios,” Fakrogha stated.

Tajudeen Olayinka, Chief Executive Officer of Wyoming Capital & Partners Limited, said the larger issuance suggests policymakers intend to keep interest rates elevated to attract foreign portfolio inflows and support the naira, warning that maintaining high interest rates over an extended period comes at a significant cost to both the government and the broader economy.

• “In every government securities issuance, they always have a purpose — either to keep interest rates elevated or to fund the budget deficit. Raising much higher sum of money in Q3 than in Q2 will necessarily mean they want interest rates to remain elevated so that they can attract foreign portfolio inflow and stabilise the exchange rate. That is one of the tools they use,” he said.
• “The only thing that can fully explain this volume is that they want interest rates to remain elevated — even though investors might be pricing at lower yields given the strong demand they are also receiving from the investing public.”
• He was frank about the cost of the strategy. “The stability we are seeing is coming at a very huge cost to the economy, even to the government itself. When you keep interest rates elevated for this long, it creates problems for companies’ price-to-earnings ratios. But these things are always temporary. Eventually, the performance of the companies will justify their return to the market.”

Both analysts agree that the Bills coming at elevated interest rates could trigger further exit from equities market into government securities even though some investors may still rotate into fundamentally strong stocks.

More insights:

The Q3 programme represents a significant escalation in domestic borrowing compared with earlier plans for 2026.

• Nairametrics reported in April that the CBN initially planned to auction N3.95 trillion during Q2 2026, although actual allotments eventually approached N5 trillion as strong investor demand prompted the apex bank to accept subscriptions well above advertised offer sizes.
• The continued dominance of the 364-day bill reflects persistent investor demand for longer-duration instruments capable of locking in attractive yields for a full year.
• Recent Treasury Bill auctions have recorded oversubscription ratios ranging from two to five times, with the stop rate on the one-year bill reaching 17.34% at the June 17 auction.

The programme also comes amid weaker foreign participation in the Nigerian Exchange, with domestic investors accounting for about 91% of market transactions in May 2026 as foreign activity continued to decline.

Whether investor demand remains strong enough to absorb the significantly larger issuance without pushing yields even higher will be one of the defining questions for Nigeria’s fixed-income market during the third quarter.

What you should know:

The CBN uses Treasury Bills as one of its primary monetary policy tools to regulate liquidity within the banking system. When planned issuances exceed maturing obligations, excess liquidity is withdrawn from the financial system, supporting the apex bank’s inflation control objectives.

• The projected net new issuance of approximately N3.16 trillion is about 4.2 times higher than planned net issuance of about N750 billion in Q2 2026, although actual Q2 allotments significantly exceeded the original programme.
• The 364-day Treasury Bill accounts for N4.0 trillion, representing about 69% of the total planned issuance and continuing the dominance of the tenor throughout 2026.
• The CBN notes that offer amounts remain subject to change in line with its standard issuance programme disclaimer, while one Treasury Bill unit is valued at N1,000.

The first major test of investor appetite under the expanded programme will come on July 8, when approximately N700 billion in Treasury Bills is scheduled for auction.

The size of the Q3 issuance programme underscores the government’s reliance on the domestic debt market to finance fiscal obligations while maintaining tight monetary conditions, making Treasury Bill auctions a key indicator for interest rates, liquidity, and exchange rate management in the months ahead.