Nigeria’s bond, T-bill market turnover surge 137.49% amid sharp rise in yields

Nigeria’s fixed income secondary market recorded a sharp increase in trading activity during the week ended June 19, 2026, with Treasury bill turnover rising 137.49% to N1.51 trillion and FGN bond trading volume increasing 75.91% to N1.20 trillion.

Data compiled from the Financial Markets Dealers Association (FMDA) weekly research showed that yields across both markets also moved higher, reflecting bearish sentiment and persistent inflation concerns that continue to shape domestic fixed income pricing.

The data points to an active repricing cycle in Nigeria’s fixed income market, with investors increasing trading activity while demanding higher returns, pushing yields higher across most maturities despite declining yields in major global bond markets.

What the data is saying:

FGN bond and Treasury bill yields rose across most maturities during the review period, reflecting changing investor expectations and higher return requirements.

The Treasury bill market experienced a steeper repricing than the bond market, with average yields recording a stronger increase.

• The average FGN bond yield edged up by 2 basis points to 16.95%, with the 7-year and 30-year maturities recording the biggest increases of 24 basis points each.
• The 5-year bond was the only tenor to decline, easing by 1 basis point to 17.39%.
• Treasury bill yields rose more aggressively, with the average yield climbing 72 basis points to 18.31%.
• The 9-month bill recorded the largest increase, rising 154 basis points to 20.15%, while the 6-month bill gained 98 basis points to 18.78%.

According to the FMDA, weaker demand and investor preference for higher returns drove the broad increase in Treasury bill yields, consistent with the June 17 NTB primary auction where the CBN raised N1.49 trillion at stop rates that increased by as much as 99 basis points on the 364-day bill.

The data indicates that investors continued to reposition their fixed income portfolios as market yields adjusted higher.

More insights:

The week’s fixed income market was characterized by the unusual combination of rising yields and significantly higher trading volumes, suggesting active portfolio repositioning rather than broad investor exits.

• The relatively modest increase in bond yields compared with the sharper Treasury bill repricing indicates that longer-term investors remained cautious in adjusting their positions.
• Average FGN bond yields increased only marginally, suggesting investors were gradually adjusting duration exposure instead of aggressively selling longer-dated securities.
• Treasury bills experienced stronger repricing, highlighting increased demand for higher short-term returns amid prevailing inflation and liquidity concerns.
• Secondary market activity strengthened significantly, with Treasury bill turnover rising 137.49% to N1.51 trillion and FGN bond trading volume increasing 75.91% to N1.20 trillion, bringing combined turnover to approximately N2.71 trillion for the week.

The surge in trading activity suggests institutional investors, including banks, pension funds and asset managers, remained active in repositioning portfolios at more attractive yield levels.

What you should know:

According to FMDA, Nigeria’s fixed income market continued to diverge from global bond markets during the review period as domestic inflation and liquidity conditions sustained upward pressure on yields.

While Nigeria’s benchmark 10-year bond yield increased, most major global benchmark yields declined over the same period.

Nigeria’s 10-year bond yield rose 17 basis points to 17.61%, while the US 10-year yield fell 5 basis points to 4.46%.

• The UK 10-year yield declined 12 basis points to 4.79%, Japan dropped 6 basis points to 2.62%, South Africa fell 21 basis points to 8.41%, and Kenya declined 6 basis points to 12.14%.
• China’s 10-year yield remained unchanged at 1.75%.
• Nigeria’s 10-year bond now offers a yield premium of 13.15 percentage points over the US equivalent, underscoring the impact of domestic inflation and liquidity conditions on local fixed income pricing.

The FMDA noted that domestic liquidity pressure and rising inflationary pressure at 15.93% in May, 2026 continued to drive pricing in Nigeria’s fixed income market even as developed market central banks signalled a more accommodative monetary policy stance.

The divergence highlights how domestic macroeconomic conditions continue to shape Nigeria’s fixed income market independently of broader global monetary trends.