Nigerian breakfast tables are once again being affected by the global wheat price ripple effect.
The main variety of wheat used to make bread flour, Hard Red Winter (HRW), has reached its highest prices in almost two years as of April 2026.
A “perfect storm” of weather and geopolitical unrest is putting direct pressure on Nigerian bakers and consumers. US wheat planting has been at its lowest point since 1919 for the 2026–2027 growing season.
American Farmers have converted millions of acres to more lucrative crops like soybeans and corn. Crop yields are seriously threatened by the ongoing drought in the US Great Plains, as wheat comes out of dormancy this spring, the “breadbasket” for HRW wheat.
Nigeria is one of the biggest wheat importers in the world, and this year’s demand is expected to reach a record 7.2 million tons. Nigeria is currently the fifth-largest market for US wheat worldwide.
Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat accounted for most US exports to Nigeria, which totaled $465 million in 2025. Africa’s most populous economy’s biggest collective supplier is the European Union, which primarily supplies less expensive wheat for blending from Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland.
Any increase in Chicago or Kansas City futures prices almost immediately results in higher costs for Nigerian millers because less than 5% of Nigeria’s wheat needs are met locally. Nigerian millers might turn to Australian or Black Sea wheat if the US premium is still too high, though those areas are also dealing with their own dry weather issues.
In addition, the “replacement price” for wheat has significantly increased for importers like Nigeria because of ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, which have also disrupted fertilizer shipments and raised shipping insurance costs.
Many local bakeries may resort to “shrinkflation” (reducing loaf size while maintaining price) or direct price increases to offset the growing cost of flour.
US Wheat prices hit a 2-year high
The US’s main wheat variety reached its highest level in almost two years due to growing concerns about crop conditions, with about 70% of the production area currently experiencing drought.
Bread-making hard red winter wheat saw an increase of up to 1.1 per cent on Friday, making this week’s gain close to 6 per cent, the highest since June 2024.
The US Plains region is where the variety is mostly grown, and there is a growing consensus that prolonged dryness has already seriously harmed the crop.
The threat of global food inflation, caused by unfavorable weather in some parts of the world and skyrocketing fuel and fertilizer prices due to the conflict in Iran, coincides with the price increase.
The US Department of Agriculture highlighted the most recent winter wheat crop conditions report for the week ending April 19; the percentage of the crop in good or excellent condition dropped to 30% from 45% a year ago and 34% a week earlier.
The National Drought Mitigation Center recently reported that 70% of winter wheat was impacted by the drought, up from 50% on February 24.
According to Kansas Wheat, the months of March and April are critical for wheat development, and some crops are growing faster in the absence of more moisture, which could further lower output.
