Energy economist, Ken Ife, has criticised the World Bank’s recommendation urging Nigeria to deepen fuel importation and liberalise its downstream petroleum sector, describing the advice as “ill-timed” and inconsistent with existing laws.
He made this known during a televised interview on Nigeria’s economic outlook, where he assessed the bank’s latest Nigeria Development Update.
While acknowledging parts of the report as analytically sound, he argued that its stance on fuel imports contradicts Nigeria’s policy direction.
The remarks come amid growing debate over the World Bank’s position on Nigeria’s fuel supply strategy and downstream reforms.
What they are saying
Ife strongly opposed the recommendation, warning that it undermines Nigeria’s drive for energy independence and local refining capacity.
- “You cannot come to a country that is struggling and has suddenly developed a vision of becoming economically independent, and then advise it to reverse course and start importing again.”
- “The law is very clear; priority must be given to local refining capacity. Advising Nigeria to abandon that and return to import dependence is not only against government policy but against the PIA law itself.”
- “This conclusion was parachuted into an otherwise strong report. There is no evidence to support telling Nigeria to depend on imports when major refining countries are restricting exports.”
- “Fuel price pressures in Nigeria are largely contrived. If local refiners are given crude at the terms stipulated by law, they will stabilise prices and reduce volatility.”
He maintained that increased reliance on imports could expose Nigeria to external shocks and weaken domestic investments.
Backstory
The debate follows the World Bank’s Nigeria Development Update, which initially recommended sustained importation of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) to stabilise fuel supply in Nigeria.
- The report was later removed from the World Bank’s website, drawing attention to possible revisions in its policy stance.
- The April 2026 report had suggested continued fuel imports alongside a gradual shift toward a more competitive downstream petroleum market. However, it was subsequently replaced with a clarification urging reassessment in light of changing global energy conditions.
The World Bank later noted that current energy volatility makes import-dependent policy prescriptions less suitable for countries prioritising energy security and resilience. It also reaffirmed the need for carefully sequenced reforms that protect consumers while improving market efficiency.
More Insights
Ife also raised concerns about the broader economic implications of increased fuel importation.
- He warned that higher imports could put pressure on foreign exchange reserves.
- The move could discourage ongoing investments in domestic refining capacity.
- He argued that global supply disruptions make import dependence a risky strategy.
- He also criticised proposals to expand social safety nets through borrowing, noting that such measures may conflict with fiscal laws.
According to him, policy consistency is critical to sustaining investor confidence and long-term economic stability.
What you should know
The World Bank’s recommendation has triggered debate among policymakers and industry stakeholders.
Earlier, Nairametrics reported that the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) had expressed concern over the World Bank recommendation.
The CPPE says the World Bank’s recommendation to increase the importation of petroleum products is misaligned with Nigeria’s current economic trajectory and reform direction.
