The World Food Programme (WFP) has warned that about 10.4 million people in West and Central Africa could be pushed into acute food insecurity if the ongoing Middle East conflict persists.
The warning was issued on March 17, 2026, in a report published on the WFP’s website, highlighting the growing global consequences of the crisis.
The agency noted that, globally, as many as 45 million additional people could fall into acute food insecurity if the conflict continues and oil prices remain elevated, adding to the 318 million people already facing hunger worldwide.
What they are saying
The WFP said the conflict, driven by tensions involving Iran and a combined force of Israel and the United States, could trigger a global food crisis due to its impact on energy markets, which are closely linked to food prices.
- “If this conflict continues, it will send shockwaves across the globe, and families who already cannot afford their next meal will be hit the hardest,” said Carl Skau. “Without an adequately funded humanitarian response, it could spell catastrophe for millions already on the edge.”
The agency further warned that African countries, particularly those dependent on food and fuel imports, would be among the hardest hit.
- “Projections indicate an increase of 21% in food-insecure people for West and Central Africa and 17% for East and Southern Africa,” the report stated.
More insights
According to the WFP, the projections were calculated by modelling the impact of sustained high oil prices—around $100 per barrel—on global food systems. Analysts assessed the number of people unable to afford a minimum energy-sufficient diet (2,100 kcal per day), factoring in rising transportation and food costs, as well as each country’s dependence on imported food and energy.
The crisis stems from the ongoing war involving Iran and a combined force of Israel and the United States, which began on February 28 and has since disrupted global energy supply chains. Key shipping routes, including the Strait of Hormuz, have faced significant disruptions, driving up oil prices and, in turn, increasing fuel costs in countries such as Nigeria.
Beyond West and Central Africa, the WFP projects that:
- East and Southern Africa could see 17.7 million people pushed into acute food insecurity (about 17% increase)
- Asia could record 9.1 million additional people (24% increase)
- Middle East and North Africa could see 5.2 million more people affected (14% increase)
- Latin America and the Caribbean could experience 2.2 million additional cases (16% increase)
What you should know
In Nigeria, the warning comes at a time when many households are already grappling with economic reforms introduced by President Bola Tinubu, including the removal of fuel subsidy in 2023, which significantly increased the cost of living.
- A recent policy study by Agora Policy, supported by the Nigeria Economic Stability and Transformation Programme and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, found that the country’s poverty headcount rose sharply from about 49.8% to roughly 63%.
- While the reforms have drawn criticism from opposition figures such as Peter Obi, who recently said, “True economic reform must be people-centred and must protect the most vulnerable while pursuing fiscal sustainability,” they have also been praised by international financial institutions as necessary steps to stabilise the economy.
- For instance, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 3.9% in 2025 and 4.2% in 2026.
However, as the Middle East conflict continues to disrupt global energy and food systems, concerns remain about how vulnerable populations—particularly in import-dependent economies like Nigeria—will cope with rising prices and deepening food insecurity in the months ahead.
