Global memory chip shortages driven by artificial intelligence demand could push smartphone prices globally up by 15 to 20% in the coming months if supply constraints persist, according to market data and industry analysts.
The pressure is coming primarily from surging prices of DRAM and NAND memory chips, core components used in smartphones, computers, and vehicles.
Spot prices for DRAM have jumped by more than 600% in recent months, while NAND prices have also risen sharply as global demand for data storage expands alongside AI infrastructure.
Analysts say the shortage reflects a structural shift rather than a temporary disruption.
Semiconductor manufacturers are redirecting production capacity toward high-bandwidth memory (HBM), a specialised chip used in AI accelerators, tightening supply for conventional memory used in consumer electronics.
What they are saying
Industry observers describe the situation as a memory “supercycle,” breaking the sector’s historical boom-and-bust pattern.
According to them, traditionally, memory cycles lasted three to four years, but current demand has exceeded previous peaks in both duration and intensity.
- “We stand at the cusp of something that is bigger than anything we’ve faced before,” Tim Archer, chief executive officer of chip equipment supplier Lam Research Corp., said at a conference in South Korea.
- “What is ahead of us between now and the end of this decade, in terms of demand, is bigger than anything we’ve seen in the past, and, in fact, will overwhelm all other sources of demand,” he added.
Bloomberg reported that tech leaders, including Elon Musk and Apple CEO Tim Cook, have also been warning about the global crisis in the making as the shortage of memory chips is beginning to hammer profits, derail corporate plans and inflate price tags on everything from laptops and smartphones to automobiles and data centers.
Chinese media outlet Jiemian reported that Chinese smartphone makers, including Xiaomi Corp., Oppo and Shenzhen Transsion Holdings Co. are trimming shipment targets for 2026, with Oppo cutting its forecast by as much as 20%.
More insights
Massive investments in AI infrastructure by hyperscale technology companies, including Amazon, have accelerated demand for advanced memory, leaving fewer resources available for standard devices such as smartphones.
- Financial markets mirror this divergence. Shares of memory manufacturers have surged, with SK Hynix gaining more than 150% amid strong demand for AI-related products.
- In contrast, consumer electronics companies dependent on affordable memory components have faced declining valuations.
Memory plays a central role in modern smartphones, powering artificial intelligence features, high-resolution cameras, and multitasking performance. Higher component costs, therefore, feed directly into device manufacturing expenses and retail pricing.
Impacts on phone prices in Nigeria
Nigeria’s smartphone market is heavily dependent on imports, leaving retailers vulnerable to global price swings.
- Rather than immediate shortages, analysts expect gradual price increases as distributors adjust to higher procurement costs.
- Traders in major electronics hubs such as Computer Village in Lagos said they are closely monitoring international trends.
- Some distributors are stocking inventory ahead of anticipated price hikes, while others are limiting purchases to reduce exposure to volatility.
Mid-range smartphones are expected to face the greatest pressure because they rely on balancing affordability with competitive specifications. Manufacturers may respond by raising prices, reducing base storage options, or delaying feature upgrades.
What you should know
Nairametrics reported that worldwide smartphone shipments grew for the second consecutive year, posting a 2% year-on-year increase in 2025, according to preliminary estimates from Counterpoint Research’s Market Monitor.
- Apple emerged as the market leader for the year with a 20% share of global smartphone shipments, recording a 10% year-on-year growth — the highest among the top five brands.
- Samsung finished 2025 in second place with a 19% market share and 5% year-on-year growth, while Xiaomi, vivo, and OPPO followed behind.
With the current crisis caused by chip scarcity, the global smartphone market may shrink again in 2026 as device makers cut shipments.
