The naira extended its gains against the euro in late February 2026, appreciating 4.6% month-to-date at the official market.
Latest data from the Central Bank of Nigeria showed the currency closed at N1,577.3 per euro on Thursday, February 19, 2026.
Since January 2, the naira has strengthened by about 6.4 per cent on the official window, reflecting sustained demand management and improved foreign exchange liquidity.
However, at the parallel market, rates remain above N1,600 per euro, trading between N1,640 and N1,680 in Lagos, Nigeria’s commercial hub.
Technical analysis
RSI: The Naira may be approaching “overbought” territory in the near future, given the recent steep increase in February, suggesting a potential cooling-off period or a minor correction back toward the N1600 range.
Latest price action shows the local currency is currently above both its 20- and 50-day moving averages, confirming its short-term bullish bias.
Fundamentals boosting the naira
Nigeria’s gross external reserves have increased to about $48.37 billion by mid-February 2026. Nigeria’s Central Bank (CBN) has collected more than $2.8 billion in the first few weeks of 2026.
This demonstrates the resounding increase from $45.50 billion at the close of 2025, significantly boosting the country’s external buffers.
CBN Liquidity Injections: the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) became noticeably more active this month, releasing foreign exchange to accredited banks and Bureau De Change (BDC) operators and have successfully suppressed demand in the short term
Oil & Gas Revenues: Stronger prices in the international global oil market (above $74 per barrel) and a modest increase in domestic crude oil production have improved dollar inflows.
Decreased Import Demand: Nigeria now needs to spend less foreign currency on importing refined petroleum because of the Dangote Refinery’s expansion, which is now running at higher capacity.
Remittances from Nigerians in the diaspora have reportedly increased, supporting the nation’s foreign exchange reserves.
Africa’s most populous economy posted a $10 billion trade surplus with the EU in 2025 amid a surge in agricultural exports and Europe’s increased need for energy products.
European currency sinks against the U.S dollar
The EUR/USD continues to decline as the US dollar strengthens against the Euro. Currently, the pair is trading around 1.1748, marking the fourth consecutive day. Fading optimism for an upcoming Fed rate cut has driven demand for the dollar.
- Cooling Eurozone inflation data has put mild downward pressure on the Euro internationally, making the Naira’s recovery seem even more pronounced.
- Positive data released from the US economy has provided further support for the Greenback. DXY, the index that tracks the dollar against a basket of 6 other currencies, is trading around 98, its highest value since February 6 of this year.
- In the released data, Initial Jobless Claims dropped from 229k to 206k, which was a great surprise. Forecasts expected 225k; however, they decreased, and the four-week average has also dropped from 220k to 219k.
Currency traders’ focus is on upcoming US data releases for Friday, which include the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the advance estimate for the fourth quarter.
On the other hand, it is generally expected that the European Central Bank (ECB) will not change interest rates until 2026. The focus in the Eurozone will be on consumer confidence data expected later in the US session before Friday’s flash PMI readings.
- Finally, most bullish drivers for the European currency have been eliminated by the escalation of US-Iranian tensions, which has given the greenback support in the face of rising oil prices.
Its appeal as a haven remains high, especially when oil shocks are caused by geopolitical tensions. One explanation is that the EUR and JPY, two other safe havens, are less appealing when crude prices rise because they rely significantly on energy imports
