Nigeria’s food inflation rate eased to 8.89% year-on-year in January 2026, marking its first single-digit reading in 128 months and the lowest level in 174 months, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The January 2026 CPI report shows food inflation declined from 29.63% recorded in January 2025 to 8.89% in January 2026, a sharp 20.73 percentage point year-on-year drop.
On a month-on-month basis, food inflation contracted by 6.02% in January, compared with a 0.36% decline in December 2025.
What the data shows
An analysis from figures obtained through Nairalytics, an online data and research portal by Nairametrics, showed that the 8.89% reading is the first time food inflation has fallen below 10% since May 2015, when it stood at 9.78%.
From June 2015, when the rate rose to 10.04%, food inflation remained in double digits for 128 consecutive months until December 2025.
January 2026, therefore, ends a stretch of more than 10 years of persistent double-digit food inflation.
More significantly, the January figure is the lowest since August 2011, when food inflation was 8.66%.
The span between August 2011 and January 2026 covers 174 months, equivalent to 14 years and six months. In effect, Nigeria has not recorded food inflation this low in over 14 years.
The NBS attributed the slowdown to declines in the average prices of water yam, eggs, green peas, groundnut oil, soya beans, palm oil, maize, guinea corn, beans, beef, egusi and cassava tuber.
On a twelve-month average basis, food inflation stood at 20.29% in January 2026, significantly lower than the 38.47% recorded in January 2025.
According to the latest CPI report by the NBS, “The Food inflation rate in January 2026 was 8.89% on a year-on-year basis. This was 20.73% points lower compared to the rate recorded in January 2025 (29.63%).
- “On a month-on-month basis, the Food inflation rate in January 2026 was -6.02%, down by 5.66% compared to December 2025 (-0.36%). The decrease can be attributed to the rate of decrease in the average prices of Water Yam, Eggs, Green Peas, Groundnut Oil, Soya Beans, Palm Oil, Maize (Corn) Grains, Guinea Corn, Beans, Beef Meat, Melon (Egusi) Unshelled, Cassava Tuber, Cow Peas (White), etc.
- “The average annual rate of Food inflation for the twelve months ending January 2026 over the previous twelve-month average was 20.29%, which was 18.18% points lower compared with the average annual rate of change recorded in January 2025 (38.47%).”
While this confirms a strong disinflation trend, it also shows that the broader price level over the past year still reflects earlier spikes.
From 40.87% peak to single digits
The latest moderation follows an intense inflation cycle between 2022 and 2024. Food inflation rose from 23.75% in December 2022 to 33.93% in December 2023, before climbing further to a peak of 40.87% in June 2024.
- By January 2025, food inflation remained elevated at 29.63%. However, through 2025, the rate gradually eased.
- It fell to 25.22% in March, 24.55% in May, 20.16% in September, 16.30% in October, 14.21% in November and 10.84% in December 2025 before entering single digits in January 2026.
- The 8.89% print represents a decline of nearly 32 percentage points from the June 2024 peak, underscoring the scale of the reversal.
- Headline inflation also eased marginally to 15.10% in January 2026 from 15.15% in December 2025. On a year-on-year basis, headline inflation was 12.51 percentage points lower than the 27.61% recorded in January 2025. Month-on-month, headline inflation printed at -2.88%, compared to 0.54% in December 2025.
Food remains the largest contributor to headline inflation, accounting for 6.04 percentage points of the 15.10% rate, meaning the sharp deceleration in food prices has been central to the broader easing trend.
State-level disparities remain
Despite the national slowdown, state-level data show wide variations. On a year-on-year basis in January 2026, Kogi recorded the highest food inflation at 19.84%, followed by Benue at 18.38% and Adamawa at 17.29%.
- Ebonyi recorded the slowest rise at 1.69%, while Abia and Imo posted 3.23% and 3.74% respectively.
- Month-on-month, several states recorded sharp price declines, including Yobe at -11.88%, Nasarawa at -9.06% and Sokoto at -8.31%.
- January 2026, therefore, marks a structural turning point.
After 128 straight months in double digits and following a peak of 40.87% less than two years ago, food inflation has returned to single digits for the first time in over a decade and to its lowest level in more than 14 years.
