Nigeria’s inflation expectations index declined slightly to 41.4 points in January 2026 from 41.7 points in December 2025, signalling a marginal improvement in price sentiment across the economy.
The latest Inflation Expectation Survey released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) revealed a modest easing in outlook.
The development reflects shifting perceptions among businesses and households, even as structural cost pressures persist and key inflation drivers remain elevated.
The report indicates that businesses recorded a notable softening in inflation sentiment during the review period, while household expectations stayed broadly high.
It also highlights energy, transportation, exchange rate movements, insecurity, and interest rates as the top drivers shaping price perceptions.
What the report is saying
The January 2026 survey shows that the slight moderation in the index was largely driven by improved sentiment among businesses. Business inflation perception declined from 48.3 per cent in December 2025 to 45.2 per cent in January 2026.
- Microbusinesses recorded the highest inflation perception at 51.2 per cent, reflecting their vulnerability to rising input costs and logistics expenses.
- Small businesses posted the lowest perception at 40.8 per cent, suggesting relatively stronger cost management or resilience.
- Rural households reported a 55.0 per cent inflation perception rate, slightly higher than the 53.9 per cent recorded by urban households.
The survey further showed that most businesses and households expect inflation to remain at about the same level over the next month, three months, and six months, indicating stable short-term forward expectations despite persistent concerns.
More Insights
Energy costs emerged as the most cited driver of inflation perception in January 2026. Respondents linked fuel and electricity prices to higher production, distribution, and service delivery costs across sectors.
- Transportation ranked as the second most influential factor, reflecting the continued pass-through of fuel and vehicle operating costs into consumer prices.
- Exchange rate movements were identified as a key pressure point, particularly for businesses reliant on imported inputs and finished goods.
- Insecurity was also listed among the major drivers, with respondents noting disruptions to agricultural output, supply chains, and market access.
- Interest rates completed the top five concerns, as higher borrowing costs affect business expansion and household spending power.
What you should know
Nigeria’s headline inflation eased sharply to 15.15 per cent in December 2025 following a methodological review by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The statistics agency is expected to release the January 2026 inflation report next week.
- The easing in headline inflation followed adjustments to the Consumer Price Index methodology.
- Market participants are closely watching the January data for confirmation of a sustained disinflation trend.
- The CBN’s inflation expectations survey serves as a forward-looking indicator for policymakers and investors.
The inflation expectations index is widely monitored because it provides insight into how price perceptions may shape spending behaviour, wage negotiations, and business pricing decisions in the months ahead.
