Billionaire investor Femi Otedola has projected that the naira could strengthen to below N1,000 per dollar before the end of the year, citing Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s attainment of full capacity.
In a post on X on Thursday, Otedola described the feat achieved by the refinery as a key turning point for Nigeria’s foreign exchange outlook.
The billionaire congratulated Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, on what he described as a transformational milestone for Nigeria and the continent.
What Otedola is saying
Otedola noted that the refinery’s capacity to supply up to 75 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit daily could significantly reduce the country’s dependence on imported fuel.
- “With domestic refining now firmly underway after decades of reliance on imports, pressure on the foreign exchange market should ease significantly,” Otedola wrote.
- “I am optimistic that the naira will strengthen meaningfully, and trading below N1,000/$1 before year end is increasingly within reach,” he added.
Beyond the current milestone, Otedola disclosed that Dangote has commenced an additional $12 billion expansion project aimed at increasing refining capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day.
The expansion will also include the production of 2.4 million tonnes of polypropylene and 400,000 metric tonnes of Linear Alkyl Benzene, a key input in detergent manufacturing.
Polypropylene is widely used in plastics and packaging, while Linear Alkyl Benzene is a major raw material for household and industrial cleaning products.
Increased local production of these inputs could reduce import dependence in Nigeria’s manufacturing sector and further lower foreign exchange demand.
“Aliko is not stopping here,” Otedola wrote, noting that work on the expansion has already commenced.
Backstory
Nigeria has historically spent billions of dollars annually importing refined petroleum products due to limited domestic refining capacity, a trend that has exerted sustained pressure on the foreign exchange market.
- Fuel imports have traditionally been one of the largest components of Nigeria’s import bill, driving demand for US dollars and contributing to exchange rate volatility.
- Analysts have long argued that large scale domestic refining could help conserve foreign reserves by cutting the need for dollar denominated fuel imports.
Otedola’s remarks align with this argument, linking the refinery’s ramp up to full capacity with the potential easing of demand in the FX market.
What you should know
The Dangote Refinery, located in the Lekki Free Zone in Lagos, is designed to refine 650,000 barrels of crude oil per day, making it the largest single-train refinery in the world.
At full output, it is expected to meet domestic demand for petrol, diesel and aviation fuel, with surplus volumes available for export.
- Nairametrics reported that the refinery has reached its full designed capacity, marking what the company describes as a historic milestone and making it the first refinery globally to achieve full nameplate capacity in a single train of that scale.
- In a statement issued on Wednesday, February 11, 2026, the refinery said the milestone was achieved following the optimisation of its Crude Distillation Unit (CDU) and Motor Spirit (MS) production block, further strengthening steady-state operations at Africa’s largest oil refining facility.
As part of the process, the refinery has commenced an intensive 72-hour series of performance test runs in collaboration with its technology licensor, UOP, to validate operational efficiency and confirm that all critical parameters meet global standards.
