Cocoa prices fell below $4,000 per metric ton on 10 February 2026, extending a downward trend that has intensified since January.
This brings the month-to-date loss to over 10%, with prices currently around $3,780 per metric ton, raising concerns of a repeat of January’s more than 29% decline.
Analysts attribute the continued slide to favorable growing conditions in major West African cocoa-producing countries, which have boosted supplies reaching the ports.
Chocolate maker Mondelez reported that the latest cocoa pod count in West Africa is 7% above the five-year average and “materially higher” than last year’s crop.
What the data is saying
Cocoa supply has risen above demand, according to analysts’ projections for the 2025/2026 season.
StoneX projected a global cocoa surplus of 287,000 MT in 2025/2026, followed by a surplus of 267,000 MT in 2026/2027.
- On 23 January 2026, the International Cocoa Organization reported that global cocoa stocks surged to 1.1 million metric tons, up 4.2% year-on-year.
- Alongside oversupply, weakening demand is also affecting the market.
- Barry Callebaut AG, the world’s largest bulk chocolate maker, reported a 22% decline in cocoa division sales volume for the quarter ended 30 November 2025.
According to the company’s 28 January report, “negative market demand and a prioritization of volume towards higher-return segments within cocoa” caused the decline.
In Europe, Q4 cocoa grindings fell 8.3% year-on-year to 304,470 MT—the lowest fourth-quarter total in 12 years. In Asia, grindings dropped 4.8% to 197,022 MT as demand weakened.
Meanwhile, abundant ICE-monitored cocoa inventories have put additional pressure on prices, reaching a 3.25-month high of 1,812,564 bags on Monday.
The combination of oversupply and shrinking demand could further depress global cocoa prices, potentially repeating the 2025 decline when prices fell to $6,065 per metric ton.
Get up to speed
In 2025, cocoa futures fell by over 44% on the commodities market, sliding from above $10,950 to $6,065 per metric ton.
The full-year decline would have exceeded 50% if not for a bullish correction in December, when prices rebounded from $5,456 to $6,065.
According to Oran van Dort, commodity analyst at Rabobank, cocoa prices are expected to remain on a downward trend, as favourable growing conditions in West Africa are likely to keep supply strong and allow more beans to reach ports.
What to know
Year-to-date, cocoa prices have fallen by over 37% in the global commodity market.
Cocoa is approaching a support zone near $3,200 per metric ton, which traders will be watching closely for a potential break lower or a rebound above $5,000-resistance.
In Nigeria, the fifth-largest cocoa producer, December cocoa exports were reported at 54,790 metric tons, marking a 17% year-on-year increase.
