The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has projected that global passenger traffic will rise 4.9% in 2026.
Willie Walsh, IATA Director General, made the disclosure during his Changi Aviation Summit 2026 speech in Singapore.
Cargo volumes are also expected to grow 2.4% globally, signaling continued recovery in the airline industry.
What IATA is saying
Walsh reflected on 2025 as a relatively strong year for aviation, with global passenger traffic up 5.3%, international travel rising 7.1%, domestic traffic increasing 2.5%, and cargo volumes growing 3.4%.
Geopolitical factors affected trade lanes differently: cargo between Asia and North America fell 0.8%, while Europe–Asia volumes rose 10.3%.
Looking to 2026, Walsh said passenger traffic is expected to rise 4.9% and cargo 2.4%, slightly below 2025 growth but still a strong gain for the industry.
“Now turning to 2026, we’re forecasting that passenger traffic will increase by 4.9% and cargo by 2.4%. And while these are slightly lower than the growth we witnessed in 2025, they still represent a significant advantage for the airline industry,” the IATA DG said.
Despite these gains, airline profitability in 2026 remains razor-thin, with the global industry forecast to earn $41 billion in net profit, a net margin of 3.9%, an operating margin of 6.9%, and just $7.9 in profit per passenger.
What this means for African aviation
Passenger traffic in Africa is projected to grow 6% in 2026, above the global forecast of 4.9%, according to IATA.
Despite this stronger growth, African airlines are expected to earn a net profit of only $0.2 billion, with a net margin of -1% and revenue per passenger at $1.30.
- IATA has noted that African carriers face the highest unit costs globally, at 140 US cents per available tonne-kilometre (ATK), nearly double the global average.
- Capacity is expected to expand 5.7%, but growth remains cautious due to high operating costs, aging fleets, fragmented markets, and restrictive regulations.
Additional challenges, such as low GDP per capita, visa restrictions, high passenger charges, and corporate taxes averaging 28% further limit profitability.
What you should know
While African carriers are expected to record passenger growth in 2026, profitability across the continent remains tight, as high operating costs continue to limit airlines’ ability to fully benefit from rising demand.
- Speaking on the Nigerian experience, the President of the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association of Nigeria (AOPAN), Dr. Alexander Nwuba, said domestic airlines earn just N8 per kilometre.
- He explained that domestic flights cost about N104 per kilometre to operate, while revenue averages N112 per kilometre, leaving carriers highly vulnerable despite elevated air fares.
Dr. Nwuba also noted that only about 0.02% of Nigerians fly annually, making it difficult for airlines to achieve economies of scale comparable to Europe or the United States.
He added that high fuel costs, limited aircraft capacity, a weakened naira, and multiple aviation charges continue to place significant pressure on airline profitability in Nigeria.
