Senior solar executives and independent energy analysts are entering 2026 with sharply differing expectations for the sector.
Their expectations reflect uncertainty driven by policy shifts, financing conditions, supply chain dynamics, and uneven demand across global and emerging markets.
This outlook is based on multiple interviews conducted by Nairametrics with solar industry leaders, policy experts, and market analysts.
While some stakeholders view 2026 as a recovery year marked by stabilisation and renewed expansion, others caution that structural weaknesses, particularly around regulation, margins, and access to capital, could restrain growth.
The divergence highlights a sector at a crossroads. On one hand, rapid technological improvements, declining module prices, and advances in battery storage continue to improve affordability and reliability.
On the other hand, market volatility, regulatory gaps, and macroeconomic pressures remain significant headwinds, especially in emerging economies.
What they are saying
Executives at several solar companies remain cautiously optimistic, viewing 2026 as a potential rebound year following a period of high interest rates, inventory overhangs, and uneven policy support.
“In 2026, we expect the market to stabilise and grow again, especially in regions with weak grid infrastructure,” said Mrs. Aisha Bulila, Managing Director of SolarTech Renewables Ltd.
“Energy demand is rising faster than utilities can keep up with, and solar remains the fastest solution,” she added.
Yischai Beinisch, CEO of Daystar Power Group, said Nigeria’s solar industry is on an upward trajectory, driven by strong economic fundamentals and supportive regulation.
Beinisch added, “We’re seeing strong momentum as more businesses recognise solar as a reliable and cost-effective solution. Efforts to encourage investment and strengthen the renewable energy framework are positive for the overall sector.”
- The executives emphasize that falling module prices, improving battery storage technologies, and innovative financing models—such as pay-as-you-go systems and carbon-linked funding—could drive significant demand in off-grid and distributed solar markets across Africa and Asia.
- However, some experts caution that the recent surge in ultra-low-cost solar panels, largely driven by overcapacity in major manufacturing hubs, could squeeze margins for developers and installers.
- While cheaper modules benefit consumers in the short term, prolonged price compression may lead to market consolidation, job losses, and reduced investment in innovation.
“Low prices alone do not guarantee a healthy market,” Mr. Ibrahim Danjuma, a policy analyst with the African Clean Energy Initiative, noted.
“If developers cannot secure affordable financing or operate within clear regulatory frameworks, growth will remain fragile,” he added.
More Insights
The African solar market has been shaped by decades of unreliable grid supply, high fuel costs, and uneven regulatory support. Over the past ten years, policy initiatives such as the Nigerian Energy Transition Plan and incentives from multilateral development agencies have driven private sector participation, particularly in off-grid solutions.
- Solar hardware costs have fallen sharply due to global overcapacity in module production.
- Innovative financing models have expanded access to solar systems for households, small businesses, and industrial users.
- Governments across the continent are increasingly recognising solar as a strategic solution to energy access gaps.
However, the rapid adoption of ultra-low-cost solar panels has also created challenges, including margin pressures for developers and installers, potential consolidation, and risks of reduced investment in innovation. Currency volatility and dependence on imported components continue to constrain growth in markets such as Nigeria.
What you should know
Recent data reflects the accelerating adoption of solar power in Nigeria and other African markets:
- The Rural Electrification Agency (REA) estimates that at least 5 million off-grid solar systems are needed to serve unpowered and underserved communities.
- The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) has proposed regulations allowing solar power users to sell excess electricity back to the national grid, aimed at improving investment returns and grid stability.
- Nigeria imported over 4 million solar panels in 2023, valued at $200 million, with imports reaching N125.29 billion by early 2025, indicating growing demand in rural and peri-urban areas.
- In 2024, Nigeria added 63.5 megawatts (MW) of new solar capacity, bringing total installed solar capacity to 385.7 MW—a modest but notable increase reflecting rising momentum from both public and private sector participation.
Analysts note that while demand for clean and reliable energy continues to rise, the pace and sustainability of growth will depend on the alignment of regulators, investors, and industry players with on-the-ground realities.
