The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has warned that recent changes to Nigeria’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) methodology may have created credibility gaps, potentially undermining confidence in official inflation data.
This is according to a policy brief signed by its CEO, Dr. Muda Yusuf on Sunday.
CPPE noted that while inflation has shown a disinflationary trend over the past 12 months, alterations to key CPI computation parameters have raised doubts among investors, analysts, businesses, and policymakers.
The organisation stressed that inflation data is central to economic decision-making, influencing monetary policy, fiscal planning, investment strategies, wage negotiations, and business pricing decisions.
What CPPE is saying
CPPE highlighted the concerns raised by the CPI methodology changes, noting that even accurate data can lose its usefulness if stakeholders question how it is produced.
- “However, adjustments to CPI computation parameters have created credibility gaps, undermining the confidence of investors, analysts, businesses, and policymakers,” the organisation stated.
- “Recent changes in the methodology for computing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) have raised concerns about the credibility of the inflation data. Although this has not materially affected the disinflation trend over the past 12 months,” CPPE added.
The group emphasised that maintaining trust in official statistics is critical for effective policymaking and market confidence.
Backstory
Last week, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that Nigeria’s headline inflation declined sharply to 15.15 per cent in December 2025, following a review of its inflation measurement methodology.
The CPI data showed that the CPI rose to 131.2 points in December from 130.5 points in November, indicating a slower pace of increase in average prices across the economy.
The NBS clarified that the December figures reflected a change in methodology following the rebasing of the CPI.
Under the new approach, year-on-year inflation and sub-indices were calculated using a twelve-month index reference period, with the average CPI for 2024 set to 100, rather than a single-month reference base.
The NBS earlier noted that it will publish two separate inflation figures for December after changes to its consumer price index (CPI) methodology caused the headline rate to more than double.
Why this matter
Credible inflation data directly affects economic planning and market behavior. CPPE warned that perceived inconsistencies could have broader economic consequences.
- Inflation figures influence the decisions of policymakers, investors, and businesses.
- Confidence in official data supports wage negotiations and pricing strategies.
- Any erosion of trust could complicate fiscal and monetary policy formulation.
Ensuring reliability and transparency in CPI computations is therefore essential for sustaining investor confidence and market stability.
What you should know
- Nigeria’s 2025 inflation path was revised upward after the NBS reviewed its CPI methodology in December 2025, although the broader disinflation trend remains intact.
- The IMF endorsed Nigeria’s December 2025 inflation outcome and the NBS’s revised methodology, saying the changes align with international best practice and support macroeconomic stability.
- CPPE noted that dependable inflation data is crucial for enhancing policy effectiveness, supporting Nigeria’s economic reform agenda, and restoring confidence in official economic indicators.
