Borrowing rates in Nigeria are projected to ease gradually over the next six months, supported by expectations of a stronger naira against the United States dollar.
This is according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Business Expectations Survey (BES) for December 2025.
The report captures the views of business leaders across key sectors of the Nigerian economy.
The survey reflects growing optimism around exchange rate stability and improving credit conditions in the near to medium term.
What the report is saying
The data suggests that as confidence in the naira improves, businesses are also anticipating a gradual reduction in borrowing costs, although broader structural challenges continue to weigh on overall economic performance.
The CBN’s survey shows a steady improvement in expectations for the naira’s performance against the US dollar over the review periods.
The exchange rate expectation index stood at 26.6 for the current month, rose to 28.8 in the next month, increased further to 36.4 in the next three months, and climbed to 39.7 in the next six months, indicating rising confidence in currency stability.
Similarly, expectations around borrowing rates point to a gradual easing of credit conditions.
The borrowing rate expectation index was 15.6 in the current month, declining to 14.7 in the next month, 11.5 in the next three months, and 9.9 in the next six months.
According to the CBN, “respondents expect the naira to US dollar exchange rate to steadily appreciate across review month periods, as indicated by positive indices. Also, they anticipate continuous positive outlook for the borrowing rate during the same periods.”
More context behind the numbers
Analysts attribute the improving outlook to tighter monetary management, ongoing foreign exchange reforms, better dollar liquidity, and increased confidence following recent policy adjustments by the apex bank.
However, the survey also highlights persistent challenges in the real sector. Average capacity utilisation across sectors stood at 49.8% in December 2025, suggesting that many businesses are still operating below optimal levels despite improving macroeconomic expectations.
The CBN noted that structural constraints such as infrastructure deficits, high taxation, and limited access to affordable credit continue to cap the pace at which improved expectations can translate into actual economic expansion.
What you should know
Nairametrics reports that the naira weakened slightly to N1,431 per dollar at the official foreign exchange market on the first trading day of 2026.
The depreciation comes as the FX market reopened after the New Year holiday, with early signs of cautious sentiment resurfacing among market participants.
