Nigeria’s domestic airline market recorded a decline in available seats in December 2025, with total capacity dropping to 850,420 seats.
The figures are drawn from OAG’s Africa’s Aviation Market Monthly Airline Data Updates for December 2025, which tracks airline capacity across key African markets.
This represents a 7.5% year-on-year decline, reflecting reduced activity across Nigeria’s domestic aviation sector.
What the report is saying
The OAG data indicates that Nigeria recorded one of the steepest declines in domestic airline capacity among major African markets. Available seats dropped from 919,400 in December 2024 to 850,420 in December 2025.
By comparison, South Africa remained Africa’s largest domestic aviation market, recording 1,803,097 seats in December 2025, up from 1,686,956 seats a year earlier, representing a 6.9% increase.
“South Africa
- “Seats This Month 2024: 1686956
- “Seats This Month 2025: 1803097
- “% Change YoY: 6.9
“Nigeria
- “Seats This Month 2024: 919400
- “Seats This Month 2025: 850420
- “% Change YoY: -7.5,” the OAG report read in part.
Kenya also posted growth, with domestic capacity rising from 420,534 seats in December 2024 to 456,500 seats in December 2025, an 8.6% increase.
Tanzania recorded one of the strongest expansions on the continent, growing from 326,990 seats to 415,130 seats, a 27% increase.
More insights
In North Africa, Egypt saw a modest rise from 382,157 seats to 391,736 seats, reflecting 2.5% growth, while Algeria recorded a stronger expansion, increasing from 308,039 seats to 388,731 seats, a 26.2% rise.
Morocco also expanded its domestic market, with seat capacity growing from 215,149 to 240,499, representing an 11.8% increase. Meanwhile, Cape Verde recorded the fastest percentage growth, with capacity rising from 69,493 seats to 92,924 seats, a 33.7% increase.
On the other hand, Ethiopia experienced a contraction, with domestic seat capacity declining from 401,972 to 389,562, while the Democratic Republic of Congo recorded one of the sharpest drops, falling from 142,201 seats to 101,598 seats during the same period.
What you should know
The decline in Nigeria’s domestic seat capacity stems from several challenges. Access to dry-lease aircraft was limited for years due to the country’s blacklisting by the Aviation Working Group over non-compliance with the Cape Town Convention. Past defaults by some carriers also made leasing difficult.
Nigeria has since complied with the Cape Town Convention, raising its score from 49% to 75.5%, and the country was removed from the AWG watchlist in October 2024, allowing airlines to access global leasing markets.
Only one airline has qualified for a dry-lease aircraft, which the Minister of Aviation announced would arrive in October 2025. Other carriers continue to rely on wet leases or purchases that can cost up to $80 million per aircraft.
Dry leasing is important because it allows airlines to operate aircraft under their own crews and schedules. Unlike wet leases, it gives carriers full control over flight operations, route planning, and costs. It is widely used by airlines globally and is critical for expanding fleets efficiently and maintaining consistent domestic capacity.
High interest rates and limited financing restrict aircraft acquisition. The lack of wide-body MRO facilities forces airlines to ferry planes abroad for servicing. Air Peace CEO Allen Onyema says ferrying can cost $400,000 per trip, and aircraft can remain out of service for months.
While there are ongoing MRO projects by Air Peace, Ibom Air, and others, these facilities are not yet operational, so downtime remains a challenge.
