Cocoa prices have staged a comeback, rising over 12% month-to-date in early December on the global commodities market, climbing from $5,510 per ton to above $6,200.
The rally comes after six straight months of declines, putting the commodity on track to finally break the losing streak that stretched from June to November.
On November 28, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) cut its global 2024/25 cocoa surplus estimate to 49,000 metric tons (MT), down from a previous forecast of 142,000 MT.
The organization also lowered its 2024/25 global cocoa production outlook to 4.69 million metric tons (MMT) from an earlier estimate of 4.84 MMT.
Earlier, improving weather conditions in major African producers —Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire — had weighed on prices, fueling renewed oversupply concerns, particularly from the third quarter of 2025.
However, newer reports from Côte d’Ivoire indicate that farmers shipped 804,288 MT of cocoa to ports between October 1 and December 7, down 1.8% from 819,425 MT recorded during the same period last year.
Exports are still projected to strengthen by January 2026, when beans from the favorable 2025 weather cycle begin arriving at ports in larger volumes.
Expectations
Farmers say light rainfall in Côte d’Ivoire has helped small and medium-sized cocoa pods grow ahead of the seasonal Harmattan winds (December to March).
These rains could extend the main crop and support a bigger harvest than last year, with shipments expected from late December to January.
“There is a lot of cocoa on the trees right now, and we think the harvest will remain strong into next year,” said Salame Kone, who farms near Soubré in southwestern Côte d’Ivoire.
Last year was very different. Heavy rains, especially in the southwest, disrupted harvesting, slowed drying, and delayed transport to ports.
This pushed cocoa prices up sharply, contributing to an 80% year-to-date spike by mid-October 2024.
Market trend in 2025
Cocoa started 2025 at $10,950 but quickly came under strong bearish pressure, dropping below $8,000 after the first quarter to $7,888.
The market saw a brief rebound in the second quarter, rising more than 16%, with April and May delivering the only positive monthly performances of the year and contributing most of the quarter’s gains.
However, the recovery was short-lived. Prices turned negative again in June and continued to decline through the third quarter, falling below $7,500, with September recording the steepest losses.
The downtrend extended into October, with cocoa falling over 8% to $6,151, and the weakness persisted in November, pushing prices below $6,000 to $5,403, down more than 12% for the month.
- December has been different so far, with prices rebounding above $6,200 as of the London session on 11th December 2025.
Year-to-date, the commodity is down 49.50%.
