The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has expressed concerns over the delayed submission of the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), warning that the lag could undermine legislative scrutiny and weaken the credibility of Nigeria’s budget process.
This was contained in a policy brief sent to Nairametrics by the organisation’s Director and Chief Executive Officer of CPPE, Dr. Muda Yusuf, on Sunday.
The organisation stressed that the Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA) requires the MTEF to be transmitted to the National Assembly at least four months before the beginning of a new fiscal year.
The failure to comply with this timeline, he noted, places undue pressure on lawmakers and reduces the depth of analysis typically required for such a crucial fiscal document.
“The Fiscal Responsibility Act mandates that the MTEF be submitted to the National Assembly at least four months before the start of the next fiscal year. The delayed presentation of the 2026–2028 MTEF would significantly constrain the diligence of deliberations because of the limitation of time,” the think tank noted.
Dr. Yusuf added that strict adherence to the provisions of the FRA is essential for strengthening fiscal governance, enhancing transparency, and ensuring that the government’s financial planning remains credible and predictable.
CPPE welcomes cautious assumptions, but gaps remain
The CPPE acknowledged improvements in the new MTEF, particularly the adoption of more cautious revenue and expenditure assumptions.
Nairametrics earlier reported that the Federal Executive Council (FEC) adopted an oil production benchmark of 2.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) for 2026, although a more conservative 1.8 mbpd will be used for budgeting in the 2026–2028 MTEF.
The Council also approved an oil price benchmark of $64 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,512 per dollar.
These adjustments, according to Yusuf, provide a stronger foundation for sustainable fiscal outcomes and improve overall budget credibility.
However, the organisation warned that the reforms do not go far enough. It highlighted lingering concerns about crude oil price benchmarks, production volumes, and other macroeconomic assumptions, which it said must reflect Nigeria’s real operating environment.
“By adopting more cautious revenue and expenditure assumptions, the new MTEF strengthens the foundation for improved budget credibility and more sustainable fiscal outcomes. However, the shift—though significant—does not go far enough, particularly regarding crude oil price and output assumptions,” the brief stated.
Backstory
During the week, FEC approved the 2026–2028 MTEF, a key fiscal document that outlines Nigeria’s revenue expectations, macroeconomic assumptions, and spending priorities for the next three years.
The Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Atiku Bagudu made this known after the FEC meeting on Wednesday.
The Minister said the Federal Government is projecting a total revenue inflow of N34.33 trillion in 2026, including N4.98 trillion expected from government-owned enterprises.
Bagudu said the exchange rate assumption reflects projections tied to economic and political developments ahead of the 2027 general elections.
