Nigeria has been rated “critical” on the 2025 Instability Risk Index released by SBM Intelligence, scoring 52 out of a possible 100 points.
The report titled “The 2025 Africa Country Instability Risk Index”, released on Monday, which evaluates political and economic risks that could impact businesses and investor confidence, places the country in one of the most vulnerable categories, signalling heightened instability across key governance and economic indicators.
According to the methodology used by SBM Intelligence, the index is composed of four major risk clusters: Leadership and Governance (40% weighting), Economy (30%), Geopolitics (15%), and History (15%). These clusters are further broken into multiple indicators, each contributing to the overall score.
Under the 2025 assessment, Nigeria recorded the following individual scores: Leadership and Governance (16), Economy (20), Geopolitics (6), and History (10).
These figures combined to produce a total score of 52, placing Nigeria firmly in the “Critical” category of the risk matrix.
SBM points to Nigeria’s economic fragility, poverty as responsible factors
In its analysis, SBM Intelligence highlighted persistent fragility in Nigeria’s economic and security environment, noting that the country continues to grapple with widespread insecurity, deepening poverty, and the aftershocks of major policy reforms.
“Nigeria’s economy remains fragile, with reported slowing inflation due to the GDP rebasing, widespread insecurity, and deepening poverty, all of which are undermining stability. Living costs have surged following the removal of petrol subsidies and exchange rate reforms, pushing more citizens into hardship and forcing many businesses to close,” SBM Intelligence wrote.
The report also pointed to fiscal tightening and renewed investor engagement as factors preventing a total economic collapse, suggesting that the government’s reforms, though painful, may be helping to stabilise macroeconomic fundamentals in the medium term.
Politically, SBM noted that lingering divisions from the contentious 2023 elections continue to influence national cohesion and governance efficiency. Nonetheless, the report acknowledged that institutional continuity and ongoing reform efforts have helped Nigeria avoid slipping into deeper instability.
“Yet, the government’s fiscal tightening and renewed investor engagement signal tentative macroeconomic adjustments. Political divisions persist after the contentious 2023 elections, but institutional continuity and gradual reform efforts have prevented a complete economic collapse, keeping the country on a precarious path of slow recovery,” SBM Intelligence wrote.
More insights
According to the report, some of the biggest gainers in the 2025 ranking are Congo Brazzaville (55), Chad (64), Zambia (35), Benin (42), Ivory Coast (44), Equatorial Guinea (49), Guinea (51), Ghana (32), Malawi (36), and Mozambique (39)
“The continued state of war in Sudan and the M-23 crisis between Rwanda and Congo contributed to the relatively poor performance in East and Central Africa, while attempted coups and Islamist insurgencies contributed to West Africa’s poor outing,” the report states.
What you should know
In August, Nairametrics reported that Nigeria has ranked 116th in the 2025 edition of the Chandler Good Government Index (CGGI), a global benchmark that measures the effectiveness and capability of national governments.
The report, released by the Chandler Institute of Governance (CIG), reveals Nigeria’s struggles across key governance indicators and its failure to feature among the top five African countries.
