The Naira recorded modest gains across the foreign exchange market on Monday, appreciating ahead of the highly anticipated 303rd Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), scheduled for Monday, November 24 to Tuesday, November 25, 2025, in Abuja.
According to data on the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) website, the currency closed at N1,452/$1 on Monday, improving from N1,458/$1 recorded last Friday.
The parallel market shows a different picture.
The currency weakened mildly, trading at N1,472/$1, compared to N1,462/$1 on Friday.
The currency’s slight rebound comes at a period of heightened anticipation and market positioning ahead of the MPC meeting, where analysts expect the Committee to weigh Nigeria’s complex macroeconomic realities, rising external reserves, slowing inflation momentum, and persistent Naira pressures.
Background to the Upcoming MPC Meeting
At the previous meeting, the Committee surprised markets with a subtle shift in monetary policy stance, implementing a 50 basis point cut in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) from 27.5% to 27%, its first easing move in months.
In addition, the MPC narrowed the asymmetric corridor around the MPR to +250/-250 basis points, from +500/-100 basis points, a move widely interpreted as an attempt to improve liquidity management while signalling cautious optimism over emerging macroeconomic stability.
Other parameters were retained, including:
- Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) for commercial banks at 45%,
- CRR for merchant banks at 16%,
- Liquidity Ratio at 30%.
The upcoming meeting is expected to be particularly significant as the MPC balances a complex landscape, rising reserves on one hand, and persistent Naira pressures on the other.
What you should know
Analysts at Standard Bank have projected that the Naira will close at N1,458.8/$1 by December 2025 amid improved foreign exchange (FX) reserves, buoyant banking system liquidity, and growing investor confidence in naira assets.
According to the bank, the currency has appreciated against the US dollar to below N1,500 since September 15, reflecting the CBN’s sustained efforts to stabilize the market.
In its earlier projection in September, the bank stated it expects the naira to close 2025 at N1,585.5/$1, compared to its earlier forecast of N1,697.5/$1.
The bank stated that political developments and fiscal spending ahead of the 2027 general elections could exert pressure on the naira.
In December 2024, President Bola Tinubu, during his budget presentation speech said the 2025 budget was based on the projections that inflation will decline from the current rate of 34.6 per cent to 15 per cent, while the exchange rate will improve from approximately 1,700 naira per US dollar to 1,500 naira.
