The Nigerian Naira’s performance against the US dollar was uneven last week (November 3–9, 2025).
Week by week, the rate on the official Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) declined slightly, closing between N1,436- N1,437/$ by November 7–10, from roughly N1,421/$–N1,422/$ at the beginning of the month (a depreciation of 1–1.4 percent).
Despite Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) interventions and increased inflows, this was attributed to ongoing FX demand pressures from importers and fuel marketers.
The Naira exhibited greater volatility in the parallel (black) market, ultimately saw some appreciation in certain areas, trading between N1,440/$ and N1,470/$ buy/sell by November 8–10 (down from highs near N1,485/$ earlier in the period in some reports).
The difference between official and parallel exchange rates decreased somewhat but stayed between N10/$ and N30/$ amid continuous segmentation and cash demand. In comparison to previous months, the Naira remained comparatively steady overall.
CBN’s controlled float and growing external reserves (roughly $43 billion), all contributed to the Naira’s overall stability in contrast to previous months’ volatility. But considering declining oil prices and other global factors, a slight depreciation in the official window indicated caution.
The Nigerian Naira is expected to be stable with a slight bias toward mild depreciation by the end of this week, trading between N1,435/$ and N1,450/$ officially and between N1,455/$ and N1,480/$ in the parallel market.
Last week’s official weakening indicates that demand-supply imbalances may continue despite intervention from the Nigerian Apex Bank, particularly given year-end import pressures. Overall, long-term projections indicate a mild decline in November (between N1,444/$ and N1,479/$, with an average of ~N1,444/$).
Markets may witness a slight increase back toward N1,430/$ official if oil prices stabilize or reserves continue to increase.
U.S dollar soft amid renewed risk appetite
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US dollar’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, was trading at 99.65 at the time of publication.
The DXY increased amid expectations that the US government shutdown might soon end. Bipartisan negotiations in the US Senate to end the federal shutdown seem to have taken a positive turn, according to Senate Majority Leader John Thune.
A vote on reopening the federal government was held by the US Senate on Sunday, suggesting that the historic shutdown may soon come to an end. Through January 30, the measure would provide funding for specific departments.
The US dollar may be impacted by weaker US economic data and uncertainty about the country’s economic future. The Consumer Sentiment Index fell from a final reading of 53.6 in October to 50.3 in November, the lowest level since June 2022, according to information released on Friday by the University of Michigan (UoM).
This number was lower than the 53.2 market consensus. Following poor US private jobs data and a negative Consumer Sentiment survey, traders increased their bets on a US rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch tool, trading Fed funds futures has priced in a nearly 67 percent chance of a 25-basis point (bps) interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) December meeting.
Dollar’s outlook slightly bearish in the short term
Government Shutdown Resolution Hopes, there is growing optimism that the shutdown may end between November 11 and November 21 (60 per cent probability, according to Barclays), increasing risk appetite and driving down the dollar.
Feds’ speeches or private-sector indicators will predominate, but volatility might be muted in the absence of official statistics. Fed Rate Expectations: With inflation remaining above 2 percent and some Fed officials (including Chicago’s Goolsbee) reluctant to ease too aggressively, markets are pricing in caution on additional cuts.
In contrast to more significant rate cuts overseas, the Fed has recently kept rates unchanged, offering modest dollar support. There won’t be any significant FOMC announcements this week, but speeches may have an impact.
Trump Policy Impacts: Experts warn that tariffs and fiscal risks could weaken US exceptionalism and worsen deficits, further undermining the dollar’s appeal as a haven. Although safe-haven flows could reverse risk, global reallocation away from USD assets continues.
