Airtel Africa Plc, one of Nigeria’s most capitalised companies and a major player on the London Stock Exchange (LSE), has seen a widening valuation gap between its dual listings.
The telecom giant’s share price has soared from £1.17 at the start of 2025 to £2.80 as of November 3, representing a 139% year-to-date (YTD) rise.
On the Nigerian Exchange (NGX), however, the stock has barely moved, inching up from N2,156.90 to N2,310.50, a modest 7.1% gain over the same period.
In naira terms, Airtel’s LSE valuation now equates to N5,329.9 (using an exchange rate of N1,903.5 per Pound Sterling), while the NGX price remains at less than half that level.
This translates to a 58% valuation discount for the Nigerian listing.
Airtel Africa, with a market capitalization of over N8.68 trillion, is a member of the Stocks Worth Over One Trillion (SWOOT) group— yet its local price has remained static since June 18, 2025.
Data Summary (as of November 3, 2025):
- Airtel Africa (LSE): £1.17 → £2.80 (+135%)
- Airtel Africa (NGX): N2,157 → N2,310 (+7%)
Analysts weigh in
Market experts attribute the valuation gulf primarily to liquidity disparities between both exchanges. David Adonri, Chief Executive Officer of Highcap Securities Limited, said the NGX’s limited trading volume constrains price movement, even for fundamentally strong equities like Airtel Africa.
“The movement of stock upwards is facilitated by liquidity,” he explained. “On the London market, trading is deep and dynamic, but on the NGX, to move Airtel’s price significantly, one would need to buy around 100,000 shares, that’s over N230 million at current price. Only large institutions can do that.”
Adonri added that while Airtel Africa’s performance reflects strong fundamentals and growing investor confidence abroad, Nigeria’s stock market remains “too shallow” to reflect such momentum. “The London price shows what investors expect in the future,” he said. “The NGX price reflects the market’s liquidity limits, not the company’s value.”
Market frictions block cross-border trading
While the wide price gap might appear to offer arbitrage potential, experts note that such trades are practically impossible. Tajudeen Olayinka, Chief Executive Officer of Wyoming Capital & Securities Limited, explained that despite Airtel Africa’s dual listing, the two markets operate under separate depository systems with no real-time link.
“You can’t simply buy Airtel shares in Nigeria and sell them in London,” Olayinka said. “To move shares across, you must transfer holdings between depositories — a slow and expensive process requiring foreign exchange access and regulatory clearance.”
He added that cross-market inefficiencies, capital controls, and weak FX liquidity make arbitrage unrealistic. “The disconnect is structural,” Olayinka said. “It’s not just a difference in sentiment — it’s a difference in market architecture.”
Institutional dominance and retail inactivity deepen the divide
Both analysts agree that Airtel Africa’s share price movement on the NGX can only be influenced by institutional investors who buy large blocks of shares but hold them long-term for dividend income or currency hedging. Retail investors, constrained by capital size, rarely influence price direction.
“Retail traders cannot move the stock,” Olayinka noted. “Only institutions with substantial volumes can impact pricing — and since most are long-term holders, there’s little daily activity.”
This has resulted in months of price stagnation, even as the company’s London-listed shares rallied on strong earnings, dividend declarations, and improved financial ratios.
Strong fundamentals, weak market depth
Despite the market disparity, Airtel Africa’s fundamentals remain solid. The company continues to deliver robust earnings, stable dividends, and expansion across African markets. Its H1 2025 earnings per share (EPS) rose over 9x year-on-year to USD0.08, supported by a 29% increase in revenue and a 51% drop in finance costs.
However, analysts warn that without liquidity reforms, Nigerian investors may remain unable to fully benefit from such performance. “The fundamentals are strong,” Adonri reiterated, “but until liquidity deepens and interest rates fall, premium stocks like Airtel will continue to underperform in price on the NGX compared to global peers.”
Financial Highlights (H1 2025 vs H1 2024)
- Revenue: $2.98 billion + 25.8% (constant currency: +24.5%)
- EBITDA: $1.45 billion + 33.2% (margin: 48.5% vs 45.8%)
- Operating profit: $959 million + 35.9%
- Profit before tax: $656 million + 269%
- Profit after tax: $376 million + 375%
- Earnings per share: 8.3 cents (vs 0.8 cents)
- Operating cash flow: $1.13 billion + 46.5%
- Net debt: $5.5 billion (Leverage: 2.1x, improved from 2.3x)
- Capex: $318 million (flat year-on-year)
- Interim dividend: 2.84 cents per share + 9.2%
