Airlines are set to lose more than $11 billion in 2025 as delays in aircraft and parts deliveries continue to disrupt operations.
This finding comes from a joint report by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) and Oliver Wyman.
The study highlights that global commercial aircraft production is struggling to meet demand, leaving a historic backlog of over 17,000 aircraft in 2024, compared with an annual average of around 13,000 between 2010 and 2019.
“Challenges within the aerospace industry’s supply chain are delaying production of new aircraft and parts, resulting in airlines reevaluating their fleet plans and, in many cases, keeping older aircraft flying for extended amounts of time.
“The worldwide commercial backlog reached a historic high of more than 17,000 aircraft in 2024, significantly higher than the 2010 to 2019 backlog of around 13,000 aircraft per year.
“The slow pace of production is estimated to cost the airline industry more than $11 billion in 2025, driven by four main factors,” the report read in part.
The cost to airlines is driven by higher fuel expenses of about $4.2 billion from operating older, less fuel-efficient aircraft, additional maintenance costs of $3.1 billion, increased engine leasing expenses of $2.6 billion, and surplus inventory holding costs of $1.4 billion.
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Rising passenger demand is worsening the impact of these supply chain delays.
In 2024, global air travel rose by 10.4%, while capacity expanded by only 8.7%, pushing load factors to a record 83.5%. This gap has forced airlines to keep older aircraft in service longer, limiting efficiency and increasing operational costs.
- The study attributed the persistent challenges to geopolitical instability, shortages of raw materials, a tight labor market, and inefficiencies in the aerospace industry’s economic model.
- These factors have slowed production of aircraft, engines, and key components, widening the imbalance between supply and demand.
- To ease the strain, it urged greater collaboration across the aviation ecosystem. Recommended measures include expanding repair and parts capacity, increasing transparency across supplier networks, and using predictive maintenance and shared data platforms to improve efficiency.
It also called for a more open aftermarket, giving airlines access to alternative parts and repair options beyond those controlled by original equipment manufacturers (OEMs).
Building a more resilient aviation supply chain, it noted, will depend on coordinated efforts among airlines, manufacturers, and suppliers, supported by investments in technology and skilled labor to prevent future disruptions.
