Nigeria’s inflation rate is expected to maintain its downward turn in September 2025, as analysts point to a stronger naira, improved food supply, and stable energy costs as key drivers of continued price moderation.
However, experts caution that while the trend remains positive, inflationary pressures may persist in some sectors due to high logistics costs and seasonal demand ahead of the festive period.
The overall outlook suggests a mild but steady slowdown in consumer prices, an indication of a potential turning point in Nigeria’s inflation-easing cycle.
Below is what the experts are saying about September inflation.
What experts are saying
Equities Trader and Business Strategist at Rostrum Investment & Securities Ltd, Jessica Ifada forecasts
“Nigeria’s inflation rate is likely to be around 20.50% to 21.30% in September 2025, showing only a mild moderation from August”. She noted that while the strengthened naira signals progress, “the effect is yet to translate meaningfully into lower market prices, as traders are still selling old stock purchased at higher exchange rates.”
According to Ifada, the coming festive season could temporarily slow disinflation, as demand for food, clothing, and transport typically rises in the “ember months.”
She emphasized that, despite the CBN’s tight policy stance with the MPR at 27.00%, high logistics costs and imported inflation could keep price pressures sticky. “A broad-based price drop still appears unlikely until exchange rate gains and supply improvements become more sustained,” she said.
Portfolio Manager at CFG Africa, Olumayowa Bolujoko was more upbeat projecting headline inflation to slow down in September 2025”. He attributed this to continued moderation in both headline and food inflation, supported by the appreciating naira and stable energy prices.
“Moreover, September coincides with the harvest season for major food crops such as maize, yam, rice, millet, and sorghum—staple items in Nigerian households. The improved supply of these commodities is expected to reinforce the downward movement in food inflation, which recorded a sharp decline in August,” Bolujoko noted.
He added that the steady pump price of petrol has also helped reduce potential shocks from the energy segment and manufacturing costs.
Research and Insights Analyst at Norrenberger Financial Group, Abigael Kazeem-Adesina also
Agreed that inflationary pressures are easing, citing the stronger FX position, improved food availability, and continued base effects as main supports.
“The stability of the naira below N1,500 during the month averaging N1,498.38 in the official market compared to average of N1,535.25 for August has helped limit imported food inflation,” she explained.
Kazeem-Adesina also emphasized the role of harvest output and the absence of significant energy price hikes in keeping consumer prices under control. “The outlook for September remains positive, with price stability aided by improved FX liquidity, harvest-driven food supply, and stable energy costs,” she said.
Nairametrics’ Take
Since stability in the exchange rate and energy markets was maintained, September could mark the sixth consecutive month of easing inflation.
The ongoing naira appreciation and improved FX liquidity are encouraging, but their impact on consumer prices has not reflected due to lag effects in price adjustments.
Moreover, food inflation remains the most stubborn component of Nigeria’s CPI, and although the harvest season offers relief, high logistics costs continue to limit the benefits to end consumers. The festive season could also drive temporary spikes in demand for essentials, particularly in food and transport categories in the coming months.
Analysts highlight several factors likely to contribute to easing inflation in September 2025.
- Stronger naira performance: The naira appreciated across both official and parallel markets, averaging N1,498.38/$ in September compared to N1,535.25/$ in August. This relative stability in the foreign exchange market is expected to reduce imported inflation, especially for goods dependent on international supply chains.
- Improved food supply from the harvest season: September coincides with the peak of the main harvest season, which has boosted the supply of key staples like maize, yam, rice, millet, and sorghum. Increased agricultural output typically softens food prices, easing the burden on consumers.
- High base effect from 2024: Inflation readings from September 2024 were already elevated, meaning current year-on-year comparisons naturally produce a lower percentage change—an effect analysts refer to as the “base effect.”
- Stable energy prices: The pump price of petrol remained steady throughout the month, with Dangote Refinery reducing its ex-depot price to N820/litre from N850/litre in August. This price stability helps contain transportation and production costs across various sectors.
- Tight monetary policy stance: The Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) decision to hold the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 27.0% continues to anchor inflation expectations and limit excessive liquidity in the system.
