Global cocoa prices, as tracked by cocoa cash contracts, have plunged more than 50% year-to-date, extending a wave of selling pressure that has been building steadily since early 2025.
The fall began in January, following a dramatic 194% rally in 2024 that sent chocolatiers into panic mode, and has since intensified through the second half of the year.
Analysts say that in 2025, improving weather conditions across key West African producers such as Ivory Coast and Ghana have eased market concerns, prompting investors to dump positions amid concerns that supply could soon outpace demand.
In 2024, poor weather and disease outbreaks in major producing regions pushed cocoa contracts from $4,192 to record highs above $12,000 per ton.
“We had absolutely ridiculous highs that were not sustainable long term in 2024,” said Oran van Dort, a commodity analyst at Rabobank. “However, since mid-August 2025, they’ve been really on a gradual downtrend.”
Meanwhile, governments across West Africa have sharply increased the prices paid to farmers, a move expected to encourage production and further boost supply.
Better West African conditions
Recent policy adjustments across West Africa are reinforcing expectations of higher cocoa output and increased supply in the months ahead.
- Ahead of upcoming elections, Ivory Coast raised its guaranteed price by more than 25%, to roughly $5,000 per tonne in dollar terms.
- In response, Ghana also lifted its rate to 58,000 cedis (around $4,600).
These higher guaranteed incomes are expected to motivate farmers to sell through official channels rather than to smugglers, while also enabling them to prune trees, buy fertilizer, and invest in new cocoa plants, actions that could lift production over time.
Analysts forecast that the 2025–26 harvest may result in a global surplus, supported by favorable weather and government interventions.
In Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, cocoa deliveries have surged, adding pressure to prices.
- Shipments to Ghanaian ports reached 50,440 metric tons in the four weeks ending September 4, compared to just 11,000 metric tons during the same period in 2024.
Meanwhile, in Ivory Coast, farmers are optimistic as the main crop harvest begins this October.
Expectations of a strong, high-quality yield are fueling projections that global cocoa prices could face even more downward pressure.
Market Trend
Cocoa cash contracts started the year at $12,466 but quickly came under strong bearish pressure, dropping by more than 33% to around $8,142.
The commodity briefly recovered in the second quarter, gaining about 16%, with April and May marking its only positive months so far, accounting for most of the quarter’s gains.
However, the rebound was short-lived.
- Prices turned negative again in June and continued sliding through the third quarter, falling below $7,000, with September contributing the most to the decline.
So far in early October, cocoa remains in the red, down more than 9% and struggling to hold above the $6,000 level.
