Following an impressive first half year 2025 showing, analysts now project the cement giant could close the 2025 financial year with nearly N1 trillion in revenue, a significant jump from the N696.76 billion posted in FY 2024.
In the just-released first half year 2025 results, Lafarge reported N516.977 billion in revenue, up 75% year-on-year, and 74% of 2024 full year revenue.
Profits followed suit: H1 operating profit spiked 144% to N192.27 billion, PAT rose 352% to N132.67 billion, and EPS jumped 352% to N8.22. Return on equity soared to 50.2%, while net margins hit an impressive 25.7%.
The strong performance reflects not just pricing power, but robust demand. Average price per ton stood at N162,265, up 45.4% from N111,622 in H1 2024. Sales volume also rose 20.3% YoY to 3.19 million tons.
Commenting on the performance, Lolu Alade-Akinyemi, CEO of Lafarge Africa, stated:
“Following our impressive Q1 results, our Q2 performance further showcases the strength of our team, market positioning, operational efficiency, cost management, and dedication to value creation.
We achieved excellent financial results in Q2, with Net Sales growth of 70%, Operating Profit up 153%, and Profit After Tax of N84 billion up 248% vs the prior year.
With this strong Q2 result, we closed H1 with sales and operating profit growth of 75% and 144% respectively, driven by volume growth, operational excellence, innovative product offerings, and our proactive market initiatives.”
Looking ahead, analysts at CardinalStone expect Lafarge to sell 6.13 million tonnes by year-end, at an average price of N162,743. If that holds, full-year revenue could hit N998 billion within striking distance of the N1 trillion mark.
Yet the key question for investors is: Is it still a buy even after an 80% YTD rally?
The stock remains relatively cheap, especially with analysts projecting 2025 FY EPS could exceed N16, which means a forward P/E closer to 7.8x.
For context, that means investors are paying just N7.80 for every N1 Lafarge is expected to earn—a valuation that looks modest considering Nigeria’s expanding infrastructure and construction sector, the company’s strong growth, expanding margins, and impressive return metrics.
The outlook from management reinforces this confidence.
“The building industry is projected to sustain its growth trajectory, and we are ready to capitalise on volume opportunities while focusing on cost management and sustainability,” said CEO Lolu Alade-Akinyemii.
Also, its price-to-sales ratio of 2.21 and 4% dividend yield strengthen the investment case. The price-to-sales ratio suggests investors are paying just over N2 for every N1 of revenue—reasonable for a company with expanding margins and a strong full-year earnings outlook.
Perspective
WAPCO closed at N126 on Tuesday, notching a new 52-week high and capping an 80% year-to-date rally, following a 122% gain in 2024.
While its beta of 0.87 signals lower volatility, the stock has outperformed on the back of margin expansion, rising demand, and investor confidence in Nigeria’s infrastructure rebound.
Analysts now project Lafarge Africa may hit N1 trillion in revenue in FY 2025. With a strong net margin of 26% in H1, this implies potential net earnings of N260 billion if margins hold translating to an estimated EPS of N16–N17.
Applying a forward P/E of 7.5x to 8x slightly conservative given market cyclicality, yields a revised target price range of N120–N135. This suggests the stock is nearing full valuation, though not overpriced.
Meanwhile, a price-to-sales ratio of 2.21x and 4% dividend yield enhances its appeal. The company’s 2024 dividend cut (N1.90 to N1.20) may reverse in 2025 if profitability sustains, boosting shareholder return.
Overall, Lafarge is fundamentally strong and still has earnings tailwinds. But after an 80% rally, the upside is now limited in the short term. Hold, if you are in.
Consider buying on pullbacks below N110 for better risk-reward especially ahead of full-year numbers and dividend guidance.
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