Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased to 22.22% in June 2025, down from 22.97% recorded in May 2025.
This is according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Wednesday.
The latest figure represents a 0.75 percentage point decrease, signaling a modest slowdown in the pace of rising consumer prices across the country.
The data shows that on a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation rate was 11.97% lower than the rate recorded in June 2024, which was at 34.19%.
“This shows that the Headline inflation rate (year-on-year basis) decreased in June 2025 compared to the same month in the preceding year (i.e., June 2024), though with a different base year, November 2009 = 100,” the NBS stated.
The NBS noted that, on a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate in June 2025 stood at 1.68%, representing an increase of 0.15 percentage points from the 1.53% recorded in May 2025.
This indicates that the average price level rose at a faster rate in June compared to May 2025.
The percentage change in the average Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the 12 months ending June 2025, compared to the previous 12-month period, was 26.58%—a 3.42 percentage point decline from the 30.00% recorded in June 2024.
Urban vs Rural inflation trends
The latest NBS report shows that Nigeria’s urban inflation rate stood at 22.72% in June 2025, representing a decrease of 13.83 percentage points compared to 36.55% recorded in June 2024.
On a month-on-month basis, the urban inflation rate rose to 2.11% in June 2025, up by 0.71 percentage points from 1.40% in May 2025.
The corresponding 12-month average for urban inflation was 28.16% in June 2025, which is 3.92 percentage points lower than the 32.08% reported in June 2024.
Meanwhile, the rural inflation rate in June 2025 stood at 20.85% year-on-year, down by 11.24 percentage points from 32.09% in June 2024.
On a month-on-month basis, rural inflation was 0.63% in June 2025, representing a decline of 1.20 percentage points compared to 1.83% recorded in May 2025.
The 12-month average for rural inflation in June 2025 was 24.65%, 3.5 percentage points lower than the 28.15% recorded in June 2024.
Food inflation
The food inflation rate in June 2025 stood at 21.97% on a year-on-year basis, representing a significant decline of 18.93 percentage points compared to 40.87% recorded in June 2024. This sharp drop is largely attributed to the change in the base year used for calculation.
On a month-on-month basis, food inflation rose to 3.25% in June 2025, up by 1.07 percentage points from 2.19% in May 2025. The increase was driven by rising prices of key food items such as dried green peas, fresh pepper, dried white shrimps, crayfish, fresh meat, fresh tomatoes, plantain flour, and ground pepper, among others.
The average annual food inflation rate for the 12 months ending June 2025 was 28.28%, which is 7.02 percentage points lower than the 35.30% recorded in June 2024.
Core inflation
Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural products and energy, stood at 22.76% in June 2025 on a year-on-year basis. This represents a decline of 4.64 percentage points compared to the 27.4% recorded in June 2024.
On a month-on-month basis, the core inflation rate rose to 2.46% in June 2025, up by 1.36 percentage points from 1.10% recorded in May 2025.
The average 12-month annual core inflation rate for the period ending June 2025 was 24.14%, which is 0.04 percentage points higher than the 24.01% recorded in June 2024.
What experts earlier told Nairametrics
In an earlier report published by Nairametrics, experts projected Nigeria’s headline inflation to post a marginal decline in June 2025, following a print of 22.97% in May.
Most projections place June inflation between 22.0% and 22.8%, driven by base effects, relative foreign exchange (FX) stability, and seasonal food supply adjustments.
However, the outlook is tempered by sticky food inflation, persistent insecurity, and demand pressures.
According to the Managing Director of Optimus by Afrinvest, Ebo Ayodeji, June inflation is likely to ease further on the back of a stable naira and relatively contained energy prices.
“We anticipate a further decline in headline inflation in June 2025, largely due to continued FX stability and minimal volatility in energy prices,” he noted. “However, food inflation remains a concern due to heightened insecurity in key food-producing areas like Benue State.”
Managing Director of Rostrum Investment & Securities Ltd, Olaitan Sunday, projects inflation to ease slightly to 22.4%–22.8%, citing a mix of statistical and policy-driven factors.
An executive banker, Onche Samuel, shares a more optimistic projection, expecting headline inflation to drop to approximately 22.0% in June.
He attributes this to tighter monetary conditions and improvements in core inflation indicators.
