The Presidency has cautioned the International Monetary Fund (IMF) against what it described as excessive and often exaggerated assessments of the country’s economic reforms, inflation, and poverty levels.
The Special Adviser to President Bola Tinubu on Economic Affairs, Tope Fasua, made this known on Tuesday during an appearance on Channels Television’s Morning Brief.
He was reacting to a recent IMF article titled “How Nigeria Can Unleash Its Economic Potential,” which expressed concerns about the country’s persistently high inflation and the slow pace of reform impacts.
“Whoever wrote that statement is not sounding like an economist. Because an economist is not a fantasist, that’s a fantastic statement they just made, expecting things to just turn around.
“Sometimes these statements feel overrated. We should invest in collecting our own data and stop depending solely on Bretton Woods institutions. Let’s build our own capacity and data credibility,” he said.
“Sometimes one wants to think they go into overdrive—almost every week or every two to three days, there’s a statement on Nigeria. At the end of the day, it leaves everyone in a state of confusion,” he added.
“This administration under President Tinubu has done some of the deepest reforms that we have seen in a while. We only just got the tax bills signed into law—bills that offer relief to low-income earners and double the tax threshold for small businesses,” he said on Tuesday’s edition of Channels Television’s The Morning Brief.
“We haven’t even allowed those measures to settle, yet we’re hearing all sorts of very fatalistic statements from different places, including, unfortunately, the IMF,” Fasua said.
The special adviser said the IMF had become overly critical, describing its frequent statements on Nigeria as “heckling” and potentially destabilising.
He disclosed that Nigeria recently repaid $3 billion to the IMF to exit its COVID-19 loan package—something many other countries have yet to do—yet the Fund continues to pile pressure on the country.
“We’re not asking for a pat on the back; we’re just saying, you know what, give us a breather. Let us be able to implement the policies we’ve started. They acknowledge that the reforms are good, yet they keep demanding more, and it’s almost like being caught between the devil and the deep blue sea,” he added.
Fasua warned that the IMF’s statements risk pitching the Nigerian people against the government, saying they lack nuance and fail to consider the depth of the economic problems inherited.
“Give us a break; let us be able to know where we are going before coming at us at every angle and generally throwing us off whack. It’s like a house that is completely dilapidated.
“And we’re being asked to provide full comfort in two years after removing the roof and working on the foundation. That’s not realistic,” he said.
He also pointed out a contradiction in the IMF’s dual role, highlighting that its advisory messages often conflict with its lending stance.
“The IMF has both an advisory and a lending arm and sometimes it looks like their advice clashes with their lending stance. We don’t even know which to believe anymore.
“We’ve done the right things. They say they want more—but the government also has a right to say, ‘Let us see how what we’ve done turns out.’ Like the president would say, ‘Let the poor breathe,‘” Fasua stated.
Responding to questions about the cost-of-living crisis and whether the IMF’s concerns were valid, the special adviser stated that while their recommendations roll out, progress has been made in Nigeria’s economy.
“They’ve recommended even more painful reforms. They want us to keep raising interest rates. But interest rates are now stabilising. The Central Bank has a view to begin to reduce them gradually,” he explained.
Background
The IMF, in its article released on Monday, acknowledged President Tinubu’s reforms but raised concerns over Nigeria’s inflation rate – which remains above 20 per cent – alongside high poverty and infrastructural challenges.
It recommended a more effective budgetary framework and the need to channel savings from fuel subsidy removal into critical investments. The Fund also advised that once Nigeria’s cash transfer system is fully functional, tax rates could be aligned with regional benchmarks.
On monetary policy, it urged the Central Bank of Nigeria to maintain a firm stance to reduce inflation and restore confidence in the economy.
“The country needs stronger and more sustained growth to lift millions out of poverty and food insecurity,” the IMF stated.
It further called for improved domestic revenue generation and emphasised the need for continued investment in agriculture, electricity, infrastructure, and climate adaptation.
What you should know
Last week, the IMF announced that its Executive Board has concluded the 2025 Article IV consultation with Nigeria, projecting a 3.4 percent expansion in the country’s real GDP for 2025.
On April 22, the IMF projected that Nigeria’s economy would grow by 3 percent in 2025, down from the 3.2 percent forecast in October 2024.
