The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has announced that its Executive Board has concluded the 2025 Article IV consultation with Nigeria, projecting a 3.4 percent expansion in the country’s real GDP for 2025.
The IMF’s Article IV consultation is a routine assessment of a country’s economic performance and policy framework, providing evaluations and recommendations for improvement.
On April 22, the IMF projected that Nigeria’s economy would grow by 3 percent in 2025, down from the 3.2 percent forecast in October 2024.
“Real GDP is expected to expand by 3.4 percent in 2025, supported by the new domestic refinery, higher oil production, and robust services. Against a complex and uncertain external environment, medium-term growth is projected to hover around 3½ percent, supported by domestic reform gains,” the IMF said.
The IMF recommended that Nigeria adopt a “neutral fiscal stance to safeguard macroeconomic stabilization with priority given to investments that enhance growth.”
The organisation recommended “accelerating the delivery of cash transfers to assist the poor.”
According to the IMF, it would be beneath the pace needed to quickly reduce poverty in the West African nation, which afflicts almost half the population.
IMF commends tax reform bills, bank recapitalization
The IMF commended the recently signed four tax reform bills by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
According to the statement, the IMF “commended the authorities on advancing the tax reform bill, an important step towards enhancing revenue mobilization and creating fiscal space for development spending, while preserving debt sustainability.”
The statement further stated, “Directors recognized actions to strengthen the banking system, including the ongoing process of increasing banks’ minimum capital. They welcomed the authorities’ efforts to boost financial inclusion and promote capital market development, while emphasizing the importance of moving to a robust risk‑based supervision for mortgage and consumer lending schemes as well as the fintech and crypto sectors.”
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The IMF recommended several measures to improve Nigeria’s growth outlook, strengthen food security, and reduce fragility.
IMF stressed the importance of addressing security challenges, cutting bureaucratic red tape, enhancing agricultural productivity, closing infrastructure gaps — particularly by boosting electricity supply — and increasing investments in health and education. Additionally, the IMF noted that tackling structural barriers to private credit expansion is essential to support economic growth.
IMF welcomed capacity development initiatives aimed at supporting Nigeria’s reform agenda and agreed that improving data quality is crucial for effective, evidence-based policymaking.
