The Nigeria Economic Summit Group (NESG) has called on the Federal Government to maintain crude oil production at 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) to ensure the viability of the 2025 budget and stabilise the economy.
Dr. Tayo Aduloju, Chief Executive Officer of NESG, made the recommendation during the group’s media briefing on its 2025 strategic vision and private sector macroeconomic outlook in Abuja.
He emphasised that sustaining this production level is critical for revenue generation, foreign exchange stability, and economic growth.
Aduloju noted that Nigeria’s oil production has fluctuated between 1.1 million bpd, 2.2 million bpd, and a peak of 2.8 million bpd in recent years.
However, he argued that maintaining 2.2 million bpd is a realistic target, given the current administration’s track record in boosting output.
“Hitting 2.2 million bpd crude production, regardless of the crude oil price, is necessary for the budget to be realistic. The government has shown since it came into office that crude production moved from 1.1 million bpd to 2.2 million bpd, and even to 2.8 million bpd,” he said.
The NESG’s latest report, “The Arc of the Possible,” outlines actionable strategies for Nigeria’s economic transformation, with clear short-to-medium-term targets across key sectors.
Economic Impact of Sustained Oil Production
Aduloju highlighted that maintaining 2.2 million bpd would:
- Stabilise the forex market by increasing dollar inflows.
- Support fuel subsidy removal and downstream sector liberalisation.
- Boost government revenue, enabling critical infrastructure and social investments.
However, he warned that political stability and security are essential to sustaining production levels, citing recent tensions in Rivers State—a major oil-producing region—as a potential risk.
Projected Macroeconomic Gains in 2025
The NESG report, titled “Stabilisation in Transition: Rethinking Reform Strategies for 2025 and Beyond,” projects that effective reforms could push Nigeria’s GDP growth to 5.5% in 2025, with inflation declining to 24.7% under optimal conditions.
Key drivers of this growth include:
- Improved power supply and fuel availability, reducing operational costs for businesses, especially Nano, Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (NMSMEs).
- Better forex liquidity, supporting manufacturers reliant on imported raw materials.
- Agricultural sector reforms, addressing financing, storage, and logistics bottlenecks.
- Enhanced security in farming regions, boosting food production and easing inflation.
Aduloju stressed that policy coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities is essential to achieving these targets.
In February 2025, President Tinubu signed the N54.99 trillion 2025 appropriation bill into law, marking a 99.96 percent increase from the 2024 budget of N27.5 trillion.
The bill was approved by the National Assembly on February 13 after revisions to Tinubu’s initial budget proposal of N49.7 trillion.
