The Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Zrosk Investment Management, Samson Esemuede, has said a higher crude oil price in the global oil market may not be in Nigeria’s favor.
Esemuede, while speaking on the Drinks and Mics program on Nairametrics TV, argued that Nigeria needs global oil prices to be “lukewarm” rather than too high or too low.
He stressed that if crude oil prices rise above the current range, it could lead to inflation in Nigeria, which would rob the country of the revenue gains from the rise.
“A high oil price will typically lead to higher fiscal revenues, but at the same time, it will lead to higher inflation,” he said.
Watch the full video here:
He argued that contrary to what many economic pundits have said, the recent drop in global oil prices does not pose a serious threat to Nigeria’s economy.
“Lower oil prices for me, within the context of Nigeria, is not necessarily a bad thing,” he argued.
He explained that even though high crude oil prices would increase the country’s revenue, it could drive up inflation and consequently eat into the increased revenue.
“So when oil price went up, even during the Ukraine war, when countries like Angola and Saudi were posting great revenue surpluses, we never did. Right. If anything, we’re in the middle of a currency crisis at record-level oil pricing,” he noted.
Why $60-$70 is good for Nigeria
Brent futures are currently around $69 per barrel, dropping consistently from $80 since Donald Trump was sworn in as President in January 2025.
Esemuede argued that a crude oil price within the range of $60 to $70 is not necessarily bad for Nigeria.
“So I think that 60 to $70 oil price is a gold deluxe period where oil price is never too high to have inflationary impact and not too low to hurt revenue, fiscal revenue. So Nigeria is now in a period where it needs a lukewarm oil price as opposed to a high oil price.”
What you should know
- Nairametrics reported that Crude oil prices dropped last Tuesday after the U.S. government implemented fresh tariffs, raising global trade tensions and having a potential impact on fuel demand.
- We also reported that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is relaxing its stance on production cuts, with members like Nigeria and Iran contributing to the cartel’s recent production increase. Nigeria reportedly produced above its 1.5 million bpd OPEC quota in February.
- Some analysts have expressed concerns over the consistent drop in oil prices and its possible impact on Nigeria’s foreign exchange market, which relies heavily on crude sales for dollar liquidity.
