Global oil prices retreated on Monday, breaking a five-session rally, as a robust U.S. dollar weighed on the market ahead of critical economic updates from the Federal Reserve and the U.S. labor market, Reuters reports.
Brent crude futures fell by 28 cents, or 0.4%, to $76.23 per barrel as of 0800 GMT, pulling back from Friday’s close at its highest level since October 14.
Similarly, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined 27 cents, or 0.4%, to $73.69 per barrel after reaching its highest point since October 11 on Friday.
The recent rally in oil prices was fueled by optimism over increased demand spurred by colder weather in the Northern Hemisphere and fiscal stimulus measures in China aimed at reviving its flagging economy.
However, the strengthening of the U.S. dollar has tempered these gains, as it makes oil—a dollar-denominated commodity—more expensive for international buyers.
“The strength of the dollar remains a key concern for investors,” noted Priyanka Sachdeva, a senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, in her Monday report. The dollar hovered near a two-year high, keeping the markets cautious.
Investors react
Investors are eagerly awaiting pivotal economic indicators later this week for insights into the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory and its implications for energy consumption. The minutes of the Fed’s latest meeting, scheduled for release on Wednesday, and the December payroll report, due Friday, are expected to provide critical guidance.
- Adding complexity to the global oil market, Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil exporter, announced its first crude price hike for Asian buyers in February after three consecutive months of reductions. This move signals confidence in regional demand recovery despite global uncertainties.
- Concerns over geopolitical factors are also shaping market sentiment. The potential for stricter sanctions on Iranian and Russian oil exports could impact supply flows. Analysts estimate that Iran’s crude production might drop by 300,000 barrels per day to 3.25 million barrels per day in the second quarter if additional sanctions are imposed.
Meanwhile, U.S. domestic production shows mixed signals. Baker Hughes reported on Friday that the U.S. oil rig count, a forward-looking indicator of output, fell by one to 482 last week. However, market watchers remain wary of the possibility of increased production under policies favoring expansion in the sector.
OPEC’s influence
Despite these developments, a broader supply surplus looms over the oil market in 2025. Analysts anticipate that an increase in non-OPEC supplies, including potential growth in U.S. production, could offset global demand growth.
Analysts such as Patrick De Haan, Head of Petroleum Analysis at GasBuddy said in December that OPEC may no longer wield the market-shaping power it once did over global oil prices.
“OPEC’s relevance likely has been reduced. They are continuously fighting lower prices,” he remarked.
