Nigeria is projected to slip to the fourth largest economy in Africa in 2024, behind South Africa, Egypt, and Algeria, according to IMF forecasts for April 2024.
Nigeria which has held the title of “Africa’s largest economy” since the GDP rebasing in 2013 is projected to have a total GDP of $253 billion in 2024, primarily due to the devaluation of the Naira.
According to IMF forecasts, South Africa will be Africa’s largest economy with a GDP of $373 billion, followed by Egypt with $348 billion, and Algeria with $267 billion.
Recall that in 2023, it was projected that South Africa will overtake Nigeria as the largest economy in Africa.
Based on IMF’s estimates, Nigeria’s GDP in US Dollars declined from $477 billion in 2022, to $375 billion in 2023, it is estimated to drop to $253 billion in 2024. However, in the Naira, the GDP improved from N202.4 trillion in 2022 to N234.4 trillion in 2023. For 2024, the GDP is projected to hit N296.4 trillion.
Recommended reading: IMF sees Nigeria’s inflation dropping to 26.3% this year
What you should know
According to IMF data, Nigeria was the largest economy in Africa in 2022, however, a devaluation of the Naira caused Nigeria to drop to third place in 2023, behind Egypt with a GDP of $394 billion and South Africa with a GDP of $378 billion.
In 2024, the devaluation of the Nigerian Naira and the Egyptian Pounds will see Nigeria and Egypt’s fortunes decline, with South Africa taking the reins as Africa’s largest economy.
Since President Bola Tinubu took over as President in 2023, the official exchange rate of the Nigerian Naira has plunged by over 55%, leaving a significant dent in the GDP computation of the country. Meanwhile, in Egypt, economic reforms since March 2024 have caused the Egyptian Pounds to decline by almost 40% in just over a month. In South Africa, the Rand has devalued by a slim 4% in 2024.
IMF estimates that Nigeria’s GDP will grow by 3.34% in 2024, up from the 2.86% growth rate posted in 2023. South Africa’s GDP is estimated to grow by 0.9% in 2024, from 2023’s 0.6% GDP growth rate.
Egypt’s GDP is projected to grow at 3.0% in 2024, a decline from its 2023’s GDP growth rate of 3.76.
Does gdp measurres well being of citizen , or can be a good measure for accountable government?how can we compare the performance of government to say this government better to its citizen & this one bad?
This report, while informative, is somewhat sensationalist.
It shows why adjusting for differences in Purchasing Power Parity, rather than solely relying on nominal GDP figures, yields a more accurate representation of economic size and performance. If currency valuation were the primary factor driving GDP rankings, countries might be tempted to artificially appreciate their currencies through central bank interventions to boost their economies. However, this approach is not sustainable and does not accurately reflect real economic growth in goods and services.
For instance, despite the significant devaluation of the Naira, Nigeria’s GDP in local currency terms shows growth, indicating real economic expansion of between 3-4% annually. This example illustrates the misleading nature of unadjusted nominal GDP metrics, particularly when impacted by currency fluctuations, and highlights the importance of considering PPP in international economic comparisons.
We threw away 2015 to 2023, and we are about to waste another 4 years chasing monetary policy while the looters make sure the headline comes to past. It’s a sad projection.
Actually in 2015, the World Bank rated Nigeria among the World’s bottom 20 nations.
Today it climbed up, and no longer among bottom 50.
In 2019, Nigeria attracted the highest volume od foreign capital in its entire history…..
If that type of movement is a waste then it’s a good waste.
@CJI, stats and damn lies…LOL!!
For starters, “foreign capital” is a substantively MEANINGLESS stat, without context. Accordingly, a high volume of foreign PORTFOLIO capital or “hot money” is NOT an indicia of economic health but rather usually of undervalued stocks, and most (if not all) of such capital is just as likely to flow out the same year it was ‘imported’ or shortly thereafter (sometimes within a few weeks or months).
On the other hand, foreign DIRECT investment is the sort of foreign capital that’s a better indices of economic health or prospects. Sadly, when you look at FDI into Nigeria, it has been on precipitous decline over the last decade, with only 1 year of the last decade (2016) witnessing more inflow than any year between 2010-2015. In fact, FDI in 2011 was about THRICE that if 2019!
Finally, Nigeria was actually among the WORLD’S FASTEST-GROWING ECONOMIES in 2014/15, and was among the world’s top 25 biggest economies (see several rankings in the links below), and thus totally befuddled by which “world bank” you supposedly sourced that rubbish about Nigeria being among “the world’s bottom 20 countries” – whatever that means.
I suspect you’re merely being crudely partisan, but that Nigeria which was categorized among the so-called ‘Next 11’ group of nations and ranked in the MINT (alongside Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey) nations has reportedly become the World Capital of Extreme Poverty within a decade should SHOCK the conscience of any well-meaning Nigerian irregardless of party affiliation.