The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Heineken Lokpobiri has said that he anticipates a crude oil production of 2 million barrels per day in 2024.
According to a January 2 Arise News report, the Minister said that during the year, the country will be producing up to 2 million barrels per day, this is a combination of crude oil and condensates production.
According to him, the country can even achieve higher production figures.
The Minister also said that this is made possible due to the administration’s efforts towards the fight against crude oil theft, and insecurity in the oil-producing areas of the Niger Delta. According to him, these efforts will bring about sustainable crude oil production in the country.
He said:
- “In the past seven years or more, there is no fuel queue across the country, that did not happen by accident, it is a product of careful planning and execution. I can assure you that our projection for the year 2024 will be to surpass 2 million barrels per day and we will achieve it.
- When I came in, we were doing about a million barrels, today, we are doing about 1.7 million barrels per day, inclusive of condensates, so we can fund our budget comfortably. But we can do a lot more and I am already engaging all the companies about their plan for 2024 so that we can sustain this momentum.”
Lokpobiri also stated that President Tinubu has provided the needed leadership for a turnaround in the oil sector, targeting increased production for the benefit of the economy.
Recall that at the Argus European Crude Conference in London in November 2023, Maryamu Idris, Executive Director for Crude and Condensates at the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), highlighted efforts to increase oil production.
She mentioned that challenges stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic, like reduced investments, supply chain disruptions, aging oil fields, and oil theft, impacted Nigeria’s production in late 2022 and early 2023.
To tackle these, Nigeria embraced a new framework—the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) of 2021—transforming the industry. This shift has led NNPC Limited to adopt a more commercial approach in managing the nation’s oil resources.
What the November 2023 data says
November 2023 data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) shows that the country produced 1,250,299 barrels of crude oil, 49,457 of blended condensates and 166,429 of unblended condensates, making up a total of 1,466,185 barrels per day of crude oil production in November 2023.
Note that December 2023 crude oil production data from the NUPRC will be made available soon.
The FocusEconomics context
In FocusEconomics’ December 2023 Consensus Forecast report, Nigeria’s crude oil production for 2024 is estimated at an average of 1.36 million barrels per day.
It’s important to note this projection solely considers oil production, excluding condensates.
The report anticipates a consecutive increase in oil output for 2024, attributed to improved security in the Niger Delta.
This rise in crude output is expected to address the country’s fuel needs, especially with the expected increase in production at the Dangote Refinery.
However, potential turmoil in the Niger Delta poses a significant risk to this projection. The report also highlights Nigeria’s challenges, such as low foreign currency reserves, rising inflation, and a devalued national currency (the naira).
Despite these obstacles, an uptick in GDP growth for 2024 is forecasted, largely driven by expected boosts in private spending and increased crude oil output.
