After a long bearish run, Nigeria’s Eurobonds appear to be turning a corner as they recorded consecutive days of falling rates and rising prices, which is an indication of increased investor confidence.
Breakdown
According to data made available by the Debt Management Organization on November 14, the NOV 2025 Eurobond increased by 28.7 cents to a dollar.
The price appreciated further by 22.9 cents to a dollar on November 15. From November 13 to 15, the bond’s yield rate fell cumulatively by 23.6 bps to close at 8.897% on November 15.
- The NOV 2027 Eurobond appreciated by 113.5 cents to a dollar between November 13 and 15, while its rate decreased by 37.7 bps within the same period to close at 8.897% on November 15.
- The SEP 2028 Eurobond also appreciated by 104.7 cents to a dollar within the period, while its rate depreciated by 30.7 bps to close at 10.526% on November 15.
- The MAR 2029 Eurobond appreciated by 132.4 cents to a dollar between November 13 and 15, while its rate fell by 36.3 bps within the same period.
- The FEB 2030 Eurobond also saw its price increase within the period by 151 cents to a dollar within the period, while its rate fell by 38 bps. JAN 2031 Eurobond’s price went up $1.359 between November 13 and 15, while its rate fell by 30.4 bps to close at 11.19%.
- The FEB 2032 Eurobond appreciated by 153 cents to a dollar while its rate fell by 32.8 bps between November 13 and 15. The SEP 2033 Eurobond also recorded a price gain of $1.449 and a rate decline of 28.1 bps within the same period.
- For the FEB 2038 Eurobond, the price appreciated by 187.2 cents to a dollar, with its rate falling by 34 bps to 11.461%.
- Longer bonds were not left out, as the NOV 2047 Eurobond’s price gained $2.043 between November 13 and 15, while its rate fell by 33.8 bps to close at 11.608% on November 15.
The JAN 2049 Eurobond gained 228.3 cents to a dollar within the same period, while its rate fell by 35.2 bps to close at 12.034%. SEP 2051 Eurobonds gained 207.1 cents to a dollar, while its rates fell by 33.8 bps within the same period.
What you should know
Nigeria began to suffer unfavourable bond market conditions during the Buhari administration, as a series of economic decisions caused Nigeria’s credit rating to tank to B- by S&P, Caa1 by Moody’s, and B- by Fitch.
- However, due to some of the reforms by the Tinubu-led administration, it is noted that the country’s economic rating is slowly getting back on track, as S&P upgraded Nigeria’s credit rating outlook from Negative to Positive in August.
- Local-currency bonds have not been left out of the pessimistic outlook by investors with longer-term Naira bonds being better favoured since the start of 2023, as they are only the bonds to record oversubscription this year.
- In the November 2023 auction, the 2053 Naira bonds were oversubscribed by over 300%, representing the best returns ever.
- For the Eurobonds, with yields rising as high as 3% above the issued rates, raising funds from the international bond market has become more expensive and increasingly difficult for the Nigerian government.
However, with the marginal positive rally and continuous ongoing reforms, it remains to be seen what level of optimism investors will display in the coming months.
