The dollar was little changed but hovered near a two-week low on Thursday after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting showed that policymakers were taking a cautious stance, as Investors wait for important data on US inflation.
Naira’s Decline in Parallel Market
The naira continues to fall in the parallel market as demand continues to regularly exceed supply. Forex traders are selling at N1045/$ to the dollar, suggesting this is due to growing scarcity.
Consequently, the naira has lost more than 40% against the US dollar since the mid-June devaluation.
Although the measures were aimed at improving the country’s financial and foreign accounts, the inflationary impact was short-lived.
Dollar Index and Inflation Outlook
Furthermore, the dollar index, a measure of the US currency against its six rivals, was at 105.64, not far from 105.55, its lowest since September 25.
Later in the day, US economic news will include Consumer Price Index data.
The cautious tone is reinforced by a mixed report on producer prices in the US, which rose more than expected in September amid rising energy and food costs.
However, underlying inflationary pressures driving factory output continue to ease.
The report comes ahead of Thursday’s release of US consumer price index data for September, which is expected to show moderate inflation last month.
A surprise drop in inflation would likely support the argument that the Fed has ended its tightening cycle, pushing US bond yields and the dollar lower.
On the other hand, a bullish surprise would likely encourage markets to adjust upward the odds that the Federal Open Market Committee will implement an expected 25 basis point increase.
Uncertainties surrounding prices in the financial market
According to the minutes released on Wednesday, Fed officials emphasized that uncertainties regarding the economy, oil prices, and financial markets supported;
- “the case for carefully determining how much additional policy tightening may be appropriate. Rising bond rates have been mentioned by Fed members as a factor that might allow them to stop the rate-hike cycle in recent remarks”
The CME FedWatch tool highlighted that the futures markets are pricing in a 26% chance of a 25-basis point hike at the December meeting and a 9% chance of a 25-basis point hike at the November meeting.
The dollar’s recent weakness has been driven by falling Treasury yields as bond prices rose following the Fed’s softer stance on future rate hikes.
Recovery of the US dollar
Bond yields move inversely to their prices. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell 2.4 basis points to 4.573%. Last week it hit its highest level since 2007 at 4,887%.
The US dollar recovered significantly despite Fitch’s downgrading of the US credit rating on August 1 as it became abundantly evident that the US economy was proving to be more resilient than other major economies.
In reality, interest rates were maintained at their highest level in 22 years during the Federal Reserve’s most recent meeting on monetary policy in September.
However, a slower rate of interest rate reduction is also anticipated between 2024 and 2025, according to the Federal Reserve.
