Article summary
- Nigeria’s oil production dropped by 2% month-on-month to 1.517 million barrels per day (mbpd) in March 2023, from 1.547mbpd recorded in February 2023, based on data from the National Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
- Despite the March drop, Nigeria produced about 70% of its 1.8mbpd OPEC quota in Q1 2023, which is a significant improvement from last year’s all-time low.
- The low production has been mainly attributed to crude oil theft and pipeline vandalism in the Niger Delta, as well as years of underinvestment in the oil and gas sector. The government is working towards meeting its OPEC crude oil production quota of 1.8 million bpd by the end of May 2023.
Based on data from the National Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Nigeria’s oil production dropped month on month, down 2% to 1.517 million barrels per day (mbpd) in March 2023 from 1.547 mbpd recorded in February 2023. The nation’s output had risen by 3.5% in February 2023 to 1.54 mbpd from 1.494 mbpd recorded in January.
Nigeria produced about 70% of its 1.8mbpd OPEC quota in Q1 2023. Despite the March drop, the Q1 performance is a significant improvement in crude oil production from last year, when production was at an all-time low. When compared with the country’s budget benchmark, actual crude oil production in Q1 2023 was c. 75.6% of the 1.69 mbpd day in the 2023 budget.
Production from the Forcados terminal dropped to 5.7mbpd from 6.9mbpd recorded in February. However, the Excravos terminal had a relatively stable output during the period, churning out 4.3 mbpd from 4.0mbpd in February. Qua Iboe did not also do badly, producing 4.2 mbpd in March from 4.1 mbpd in February. Bonny also improved to 3.2 mbpd from 2.1 mbpd in February. There was no production at all at the Aje, Asaramatoru, Ajapa, terminals as well as the Anambra basin. Oyo, Ukpokiti and Ima also did not produce any oil in the first quarter of 2023. No reason was given for this development by the NUPRC. At the Brass terminal in Bayelsa, production fell from 933,061 to 666,826 between February and March, but rose at the Ọdụdụ terminal from 2.9 mbpd to 3.3 mbpd while Tulja-Okwuibome increased marginally from 1.0 million barrels to 1.1 million barrels between February and March.
What you need to know
Nigeria has been unable to meet its OPEC production quota for over two years, thereby hobbling the country’s main source of foreign exchange and putting immense pressure on the country’s foreign exchange. The low production has been mainly attributed to crude oil theft and massive pipeline vandalism in the Niger Delta, as well as years of underinvestment in the oil and gas sector. Erstwhile Minister of State and Petroleum Resources, Chief Timipre Sylva, recently said Nigeria was working towards meeting its OPEC crude oil production quota of 1.8 million bpd by the end of May 2023. We remain hopeful that the Federal Government will sustain its reinforced pipeline surveillance and clampdown on oil theft.
Crude Oil Production (mbpd)
Source: CSL Research, CBN
