Will Nigerians relocate if their preferred candidate loses the upcoming Presidential election in 2023? This question is on the minds of many Nigerians, especially the youth and working-class population, as the outcome of the election will have a significant impact on their future.
The trend of Nigerians relocating to foreign countries, including Canada, the United Kingdom, and other European countries, has been on the rise in recent times. In 2022, the ‘Japa’ trend, which involves the youth and working-class population fleeing the country in search of greener pastures, swept the nation like wildfire.
According to reports, the Nigeria Immigration Service (NIS) granted 1,899,683 passports in 2022, the highest in a single year and the last seven years. The increased demand for passports is due to the myriad of negative situations in the country, which is not suitable for a wide range of professionals and even artisans. As a result, many Nigerians are seeking opportunities in other countries to ensure their survival.
Poor infrastructure and welfare packages in the health sector, academic institutions, gaps in Nigeria’s labour market, insecurity, high unemployment rates, and other issues drive mass migration to these countries.
The Nigerian Medical Association estimates that the current doctor-to-patient ratio is one doctor to 4,000 to 5,000 people, and over half of the 72,000 doctors registered with the Medical and Dental Council of Nigeria (MDCN) practice outside the nation.
The departure of this generation of Nigerians is having a substantial impact on the country’s labour and talent basis, which will have an impact on national development in terms of social, economic, and political issues.
In a recent poll conducted by Nairametrics, Nigerians were asked which Presidential candidate would make them consider relocating to another country if their preferred candidate lost the election. Some professionals were also asked for their opinions.
While the poll results indicated that the majority of Nigerians would not consider relocating if their preferred candidate lost the election, some expressed their willingness to move if their chosen candidate did not win.
What the poll results indicate
The results of the Nairametrics poll on Twitter and LinkedIn showed that the majority of Nigerians would not consider relocating if their preferred Presidential candidate lost the election.
Out of 3,349 individuals who responded to the poll on Twitter, only 3% indicated they would relocate if Rabiu Musa Kwakwanso lost the election. He also had the lowest, with 2% on LinkedIn.
Alhaji Atiku Abubakar had 7% of the respondents indicate they would relocate if he lost the election. On LinkedIn, only 5% of respondents picked Atiku.
Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu had 24% of the respondents indicate that they would relocate if he lost the election. On LinkedIn, 15% indicated they would relocate if he lost the election.
The highest number of votes came for Mr Peter Obi, who had 66% of respondents voting that they would relocate if he lost the election. On LinkedIn, it was another win for Peter Obi, as 78% indicated they would relocate if he lost the election.
While these poll results show that the majority of Nigerians would not consider relocating, it is important to note that these figures may not accurately reflect the sentiment of the entire Nigerian population.
Furthermore, many factors can influence a person’s decision to relocate, including economic opportunities, social and political stability, and personal circumstances.
The Nigerian government needs to address the underlying issues that are driving mass migration, such as poor infrastructure, insecurity, and high unemployment rates.
The government must also develop policies that will create an enabling environment for individuals and businesses to thrive, thereby reducing the need for people to seek greener pastures elsewhere.
Find below the poll from LinkedIn:
Responses from experts
- Abiola Rasaq, the Head of Corporate Strategy at a securities firm, said: “I don’t think the result of election would significantly change the trend of migration in the near term, except perhaps for a few opportunists, who hoped to seek or secure political appointments if their candidates of choice wins the election. I think it’s important to note that irrespective of the winner, there is no magic wand to fix the structural problems of Nigeria overnight”.
- He spoke further saying: “I do believe there are a few low hanging fruits, which a committed leadership can explore to alleviate some of the current sufferings in the near term, but I do not think such would near term changes would make such big impacts to change the migration narratives. Notably, most migrants are keen about seeking greener pastures in developed countries like UK, Canada and US, and I do not expect the result of the elections to make much changes to the decision of aspirating migrants in the near term”.
- Olumide, who works as a banker, said: “My biggest fear regarding Nigeria is that with every new government, we begin to appreciate/prefer the past one, and I am not sure this time will be any different. By far, this has to be the worst set of candidates we have ever had to pick from (I don’t know so much about Kwakwanso). Unless you’re making millions in your current job/business, japa should be on your agenda”.
- Tosin Ogunade, an advertising executive, said: “Should people think of or not japaing because of another person? In context… because of a leader of their country. Just thinking out loud.”
- Omolola Onifade, a tech executive said: “Frankly, the outcome of this election cannot cause me to change the trajectory of my life without God’s approval.”
- HR executive, Ade, said: “I pray japa, cool as much as it sounds, will not become another big issue for us (home and abroad). I pray the majority on the train are able to behave like Romans when they get to Rome.…. Is it not Nigerians who are demanding an arm and a leg to get a Tier 2 certificate in the UK when the actual cost is barely £200? Such is the rip-off system at home, and such will be the order of the day abroad. They, too are Nigerians!”
Overall, the responses are consistent across both social media platforms. Most respondents indicated they would be disappointed if Peter Obi loses and may proceed to relocate.
Some direct responses indicate a neutral stance on the matter. Others stated that corruption should be stopped at all levels to make the country better for everyone. Many more believe that earning higher wages can potentially make your life better regardless of who is in power and the decision to relocate is a personal choice.
Is “japa” free? Those who can afford to “japa” will do so, regardless of who wins.