Unlike in more advanced climes, Nigerian politics is not based on competing ideologies but is usually marred with ethnic and religious sentiments. On July 20, 2022, the All Progressives Congress (APC) officially unveiled former Governor of Borno State, Kashim Shettima, as the running mate of the presidential candidate of the party, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu.
This, being a Muslim-Muslim ticket, expectedly sparked several criticisms, particularly from the Christian electorates across the various political parties. Babachir Lawal, former secretary to the government of the federation (SGF) and a chieftain of the APC, labelled the Muslim-Muslim ticket as a disastrous error. Also, senator Ishaku Abbo who is also a member of the APC described the Muslim-Muslim ticket as irresponsible, insensitive, and ignorant of the nation’s political system. Having selected their running mates, the stage is now set for the various political parties to unveil their manifestos and canvass for electoral support from the electorate.
Taking a cue from the recently concluded gubernatorial election in Osun State, we are inclined to the belief that the electioneering process appears to be assuming a new dimension. Firstly, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the presidential candidate of the APC, who is widely believed to be the principal political gladiator and kingmaker in the Southwest, lost his bid to retain the incumbent APC governor. Governor Gboyega Oyetola of the APC lost his reelection bid to Senator Ademola Adeleke (PDP).
We believe this was a strong statement from the electorate even within the Southwest that the era of godfatherism is gradually being phased out. Also, the power of incumbency offered little help in the Osun state election. The new Electoral Act allows for efficiency, speed, and transparency of the electoral process. However, there were reported incidents of vote buying by the two main political parties in the Osun state elections.
That said, we believe that the presidential race will be keenly contested with votes split among the three frontliners, Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the APC, Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and Peter Obi of the Labour Party. While we reckon with the massive support that Peter Obi is currently enjoying from youths, particularly from the south and middle belt, our prognosis tilts in favour of Bola Ahmed Tinubu. The South-West– which is controlled by the APC will most likely go to Tinubu. Tinubu also appears to have reasonable grassroots support in the North. However, we believe his Muslim-Muslim ticket will work against him in the North Central region which has been severely divided along religious and ethnic lines.
However, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar has remained relatively quiet after choosing Governor Ifeanyi Okowa of Delta State as his running mate. We opine that beyond some existing party loyalists, the duo of Atiku and Okowa have very slim chance of pulling additional followership.
Atiku, who is Hausa Fulani from Adamawa state in North-East Nigeria, should get some support there. Being the PDP flagbearer, he will enjoy some support in the SouthEast and South-South regions, but we expect the votes of these regions to be split between Atiku and Peter Obi of the Labour Party.
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Hope this analysis is not sponsored. Also wondering what business a stockbroking firm has in presenting such.
I really wonder 🤔.
This prognosis is flawed. It didn’t take into consideration the dissatisfaction of Nigerians with the present APC government. Many Nigerians don’t want to hear anything APC, because it cannotate suffering, poverty, insecurity and banditry. Every Nigerians desire a real change( not the one promised by APC). If the writer has taken these into consideration, it would have arrived at a conclusion that most Nigerians are inclined towards the ObiDatti ticket, as it offers more ray of hope than the old order.