The Federal Government has projected that Nigeria’s real GDP growth will rise to 3.75% in 2023, from a revised projection of 3.55% for 2022, adding that the growth rate will slow to 3.30% by 2024.
This was disclosed by the Ministry of Finance at the Public Consultative Forum on the 2023-2025 Medium-Term Fiscal Framework, in a document viewed by Nairametrics.
It also added that the medium-term nominal consumption is projected at N121.93 trillion, N123.69 trillion and N125.45 trillion for 2023, 2024 and 2025 respectively.
What the Finance ministry is saying
The Finance Ministry stated under its 2023 – 2025 Key Assumptions and Macroeconomic Framework that “real GDP growth is projected at 3.75% in 2023, from a revised projection of 3.55% for 2022. Growth is expected to moderate to 3.30% in 2024 before picking up to 3.46% in 2025.
It added that upward pressure on prices is expected to be driven by the current lag effect of the global price surge due to the Russian-Ukraine war, domestic insecurity, rising costs of imports, exchange rate depreciation, as well as other supply-side constraints.
“The medium-term nominal consumption is projected at N121.93 trillion, N123.69 trillion and N125.45 trillion for 2023, 2024 and 2025, respectively,” it added.
What you should know
- Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.11% (year-on-year) in real terms in the first quarter of 2022, indicating the sixth consecutive quarter of positive growth by the Nigerian economy.
- The oil sector of the Nigerian economy contracted by 26.04% (year-on-year) in Q1 2022, indicating a decrease of 23.83% points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2021.
- Nigeria recorded an average daily oil production of 1.49 million barrels per day (mbpd) in Q1 2022, lower than the daily average production of 1.72mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2021 by 0.23mbpd and lower than the fourth quarter 2021 production volume of 1.50mbpd by 0.01mbpd.
- On the other hand, the non-oil sector grew by 6.08% in real terms during the reference quarter (Q1 2022). This rate was higher by 5.28% points compared to the rate recorded same quarter of 2021 and 1.34% points higher than the fourth quarter of 2021.
If these figures are converted to dollar rate, are we going to experience same GDP growth and if yes, then it’s surprising GDP is not a good indicator to know our prosperity as a nation.