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ABCON warns: Forex speculators risk losing money as they push for forceful depreciation

ABCON has strongly warned foreign exchange speculators pushing for the forceful depreciation of the naira through their illegal activities.

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ABCON warns FG on France’s involvement in ECO currency

The Association of Bureau De Change Operators of Nigeria (ABCON) has strongly warned foreign exchange speculators, who have been pushing for the forceful depreciation of the naira through their illegal activities, that they run the risk of losing their money.

According to a report from ThisDay, this is contained in a statement issued by ABCON on Sunday, November 22, 2020, and titled, “ABCON warns speculators will lose money as CBN has enough reserves to fund market, defend naira“.

The President of ABCON, Alhaji Aminu Gwadabe, said foreign exchange speculators run the risk of losing their funds, as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has enough in its reserve to defend the naira and close the widening gap between official and parallel market rates.

The demand pressure on the naira from importers and currency speculators has seen the local currency depreciate to N484 to a dollar in the parallel market, otherwise known as the black market as at last week Friday, whereas the official CBN rate still remained stable at N379 to a dollar.

Gwadabe, pointed out that with almost $36 billion in foreign reserves, the CBN has what it takes to punish the enemies of the economy, who are forcing the naira to depreciate through speculative activities.

Specta

He said the CBN Governor, Godwin Emefiele, has continued to take the right steps and measures to stabilize the exchange rate and ensure that foreign exchange is made available to manufacturers and end users, who need the funds for their medical trips, school fees payment, travel allowances, amongst others.

He also acknowledged that the allocation of dollars to Bureau De Change operators (BDCs) has also helped to deepen the forex market and reduce the level of forex scarcity that usually encouraged speculative activities.

He pointed out that the gap between the official rate and the black market will soon be narrowed down to the barest minimum, with the CBN having the needed financial strength to fund the forex market.

Gwadebe said, “I think that the CBN by pushing the official foreign exchange rate from N306 to N379 to the dollar is in line with market demand. It has also helped to narrow the official-parallel market rates gap that formed the basis of ridiculous speculations among unpatriotic forex dealers and spectators.’’

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Gwadabe advised the FG to enhance security surveillance at the nation’s borders to checkmate illegal foreign currency cash transactions.

He further called for BDC operators’ liquidity ratios to be raised to discourage dollar holdings. He said ABCON Executives will from this week begin enforcement of regulatory compliance of its members in BDC design market, saying it was helping to overheat that market.

Gwadabe disclosed that ABCON Executive Council under his leadership will continue to promote transparency and efficient market dealings, while commending the CBN Management for its progressive policies towards a stable exchange rate that aligns with its mandate of exchange rate stability.

What you should know

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It can be recalled that despite the intervention of the CBN with the allocation of forex to BDCs and formulation of policies to help conserve forex and increase the dollar inflow into the country, the exchange rate disparity appears to widen further.

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Chike Olisah is a graduate of accountancy with over 15 years working experience in the financial service sector. He has worked in research and marketing departments of three top commercial banks. Chike is a senior member of the Nairametrics Editorial Team. You may contact him via his email- [email protected]

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Currencies

Daily Parallel Market Exchange Rate – ₦470/$1

The US dollar closed at ₦470/US$1 in the parallel market

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on

Forex, NIGERIA: Daily Parallel Market, Exchange Rate

The exchange rate between the naira and the US dollar for today (Monday, January 18th 2021), closed at 470/US$1 in the parallel market. The rate had also closed at 470/US$1 on Friday, January 15th 2021.

  • Naira:470
  • Dollar: $1
  • Date: January 18th, 2021

The exchange rate between the naira and the British pound sterling closed at ₦630/₤1 on Monday, January 18th 2021. The rate had closed at ₦625/₤1 on Friday, January 15th 2021.

  • Naira: ₦630
  • Pounds Sterling: ₤1
  • Date: January 18th, 2021

Explore Economic Research Data From Nairametrics on Nairalytics

The exchange rate between the naira and the European euro closed at ₦575/€1 on Monday, January 18th 2021. The rate had closed at ₦570/€1 on Friday, January 18th 2021.

  • Naira: ₦575
  • Euro: €1
  • Date: January 18th, 2021

Activity: US Dollar closed at 470/US$1 in the parallel market

Specta

READ ALSO: The risk of buying Forex at black market rate of N460/$1 

DateCurrencyBuy(AM)Sell(AM)Buy(PM)Sell(PM)Volatility
1/18/2021Dollar465470465470Low
1/18/2021Pounds625630625630Low
1/18/2021Euro570575570575Low
1/15/2021Dollar465470465470Low
1/15/2021Pounds620625620625Low
1/15/2021Euro565570565570Low
1/14/2021Dollar465470465470Low
1/14/2021Pounds620625620625Low
1/14/2021Euro565570565570Low
1/13/2021Dollar465470465470Low
1/13/2021Pounds620625620625Low
1/13/2021Euro565570565570Low
1/12/2021Dollar460465460465Low
1/12/2021Pounds610615610615Low
1/12/2021Euro560565560565Low
1/11/2021Dollar460465460465Low
1/11/2021Pounds610615610615Low
1/11/2021Euro560565560565Low
1/8/2021Dollar460465460465Low
1/8/2021Pounds610615610615Low
1/8/2021Euro560565560565Low
1/7/2021Dollar460465460465Low
1/7/2021Pounds610615610615Low
1/7/2021Euro560565560565Low
1/6/2021Dollar460465460465Low
1/6/2021Pounds610615610615Low
1/6/2021Euro560565560565Low
1/5/2021Dollar460465460465Low
1/5/2021Pounds610615610615Low
1/5/2021Euro560565560565Low
1/4/2021Dollar460465460465Low
1/4/2021Pounds610615610615Low
1/4/2021Euro560565560565Low
1/1/2021Dollar455460455460Low
1/1/2021Pounds610615610615Low
1/1/2021Euro560565560565Low
12/31/2020Dollar455460455460Low
12/31/2020Pounds610615610615Low
12/31/2020Euro560565560565Low
12/30/2020Dollar455460455460Low
12/30/2020Pounds610615610615Low
12/30/2020Euro560565560565Low
12/29/2020Dollar455460455460Low
12/29/2020Pounds610615610615Low
12/29/2020Euro560565560565Low
12/28/2020Dollar455460455460Low
12/28/2020Pounds610615610615low
12/28/2020Euro560565560565Low
12/25/2020Dollar465470465470Low
12/25/2020Pounds610615610615Low
12/25/2020Euro560565560565Low
12/24/2020Dollar465470465470Low
12/24/2020Pounds610615610615Low
12/24/2020Euro560565560565Low
12/23/2020Dollar465470465470Low
12/23/2020Pounds610615610615Low
12/23/2020Euro560565560565Low
12/22/2020Dollar465470465470Low
12/22/2020Pounds610615610615Low
12/22/2020Euro560565560565Low
12/21/2020Dollar465470465470Low
12/21/2020Pounds610615610615Low
12/21/2020Euro560565560565Low
12/18/2020Dollar465470465470Low
12/18/2020Pounds610615610615Low
12/18/2020Euro560565560565Low
12/17/2020Dollar465470465470Low
12/17/2020Pounds610615610615Low
12/17/2020Euro560565560565Low
12/16/2020Dollar465470465470Low
12/16/2020Pounds610615610615Low
12/16/2020Euro560565560565Low
12/15/2020Dollar465470465470Low
12/15/2020Pounds610615610615Low
12/15/2020Euro560565560565Low
12/14/2020Dollar465470465470Low
12/14/2020Pounds610615610615Low
12/14/2020Euro560565560565Low
12/11/2020 0:00Dollar465470465470Low
12/11/2020 0:00Pounds610615610615Low
12/11/2020 0:00Euro560565560565Low
12/10/2020 0:00Dollar465470465470Low
12/10/2020 0:00Pounds610615610615Low
12/10/2020 0:00Euro560565560565Low
12/9/2020 0:00Dollar470475470475Low
12/9/2020 0:00Pounds605610605610Low
12/9/2020 0:00Euro555560555560Low
12/8/2020 0:00Dollar470475470475Low
12/8/2020 0:00Pounds605610605610Low
12/8/2020 0:00Euro555560555560Low
12/7/2020 0:00Dollar465470465470Low
12/7/2020 0:00Pounds615620615620Low
12/7/2020 0:00Euro555560555560Low
12/4/2020 0:00Dollar465470465470Low
12/4/2020 0:00Pounds615620615620Low
12/4/2020 0:00Euro555560555560Low
12/3/2020 0:00Dollar465470465470Low
12/3/2020 0:00Pounds615620615620Low
12/3/2020 0:00Euro555560555560Low
12/2/2020 0:00Dollar485495485495Low
12/2/2020 0:00Pounds630635630635Low
12/2/2020 0:00Euro570575570575Low
12/1/2020 0:00Dollar485495485495Low
12/1/2020 0:00Pounds630635630635Low
12/1/2020 0:00Euro570575570575Low
11/30/2020Dollar485495485495Low
11/30/2020Pounds630635630635Low
11/30/2020Euro565570565570Low
11/27/2020Dollar485490485490Low
11/27/2020Pounds615620615620Low
11/27/2020Euro565570565570Low
11/26/2020Dollar475480475480Low
11/26/2020Pounds600605600605Low
11/26/2020Euro555560555560Low
11/25/2020Dollar475480475480Low
11/25/2020Pounds600605600605Low
11/25/2020Euro555560555560Low
11/24/2020Dollar475480475480Low
11/24/2020Pounds600605600605Low
11/24/2020Euro555560555560Low
11/23/2020Dollar475480475480Low
11/23/2020Pounds600605600605Low
11/23/2020Euro555560555560Low
11/20/2020Dollar465470465470Low
11/20/2020Pounds600605600605Low
11/20/2020Euro555560555560Low
11/19/2020Dollar465470465470Low
11/19/2020Pounds600605600605Low
11/19/2020Euro555560555560Low
11/18/2020Dollar465470465470Low
11/18/2020Pounds600605600605Low
11/18/2020Euro555560555560Low
11/17/2020Dollar465470465470Low
11/17/2020Pounds600605600605Low
11/17/2020Euro555560555560Low
11/16/2020Dollar455460455460Low
11/16/2020Pounds585590585590Low
11/16/2020Euro535540535540Low
11/13/2020Dollar455460455460Low
11/13/2020Pounds585590585590Low
11/13/2020Euro535540535540Low
11/12/2020 0:00Dollar455460455460Low
11/12/2020 0:00Pounds585590585590Low
11/12/2020 0:00Euro535540535540Low
11/11/2020 0:00Dollar455460455460Low
11/11/2020 0:00Pounds585590585590Low
11/11/2020 0:00Euro535540535540Low
11/10/2020 0:00Dollar457462457462Low
11/10/2020 0:00Pounds583587583587Low
11/10/2020 0:00Euro535540535540Low
11/9/2020 0:00Dollar457462457462Low
11/9/2020 0:00Pounds585590585590Low
11/9/2020 0:00Euro535540535540Low
11/6/2020 0:00Dollar457462457462Low
11/6/2020 0:00Pounds585590585590Low
11/6/2020 0:00Euro535540535540Low
11/5/2020 0:00Dollar457462457462Low
11/5/2020 0:00Pounds585590585590Low
11/5/2020 0:00Euro535540535540Low
11/4/2020 0:00Dollar457462457462Low
11/4/2020 0:00Pounds585590585590Low
11/4/2020 0:00Euro535540535540Low
11/3/2020 0:00Dollar457462457462Low
11/3/2020 0:00Pounds585590585590Low
11/3/2020 0:00Euro535540535540Low
11/2/2020 0:00Dollar457460457460Low
11/2/2020 0:00Pounds585590585590Low
11/2/2020 0:00Euro530535530535Low
10/30/2020Dollar457460457460Low
10/30/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/30/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/29/2020Dollar457460457460Low
10/29/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/29/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/28/2020Dollar457460457460Low
10/28/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/28/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/27/2020Dollar457461457461Low
10/27/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/27/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/26/2020Dollar457461457461Low
10/26/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/26/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/23/2020Dollar457461457461Low
10/23/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/23/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/22/2020Dollar457461457461Low
10/22/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/22/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/21/2020Dollar456460456460Low
10/21/2020Pounds582593582593Low
10/21/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/20/2020Dollar456460456460Low
10/20/2020Pounds582593582593Low
10/20/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/19/2020Dollar455460455460Low
10/19/2020Pounds583592583592Low
10/19/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/16/2020Dollar455460455460Low
10/16/2020Pounds583592583592Low
10/16/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/15/2020Dollar455460455460Low
10/15/2020Pounds583592583592Low
10/15/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/14/2020Dollar455460455460Low
10/14/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/14/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/13/2020Dollar453458455460Low
10/13/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/13/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/12/2020 0:00Dollar452458452458Low
10/12/2020 0:00Pounds580585580585Low
10/12/2020 0:00Euro530535530535Low
10/9/2020 0:00Dollar452457452457Low
10/9/2020 0:00Pounds585590585590Low
10/9/2020 0:00Euro535540535540Low
10/8/2020 0:00Dollar452457452457Low
10/8/2020 0:00Pounds585590585590Low
10/8/2020 0:00Euro535540535540Low
10/7/2020 0:00Dollar452457452457Low
10/7/2020 0:00Pounds585590585590Low
10/7/2020 0:00Euro535540535540Low
10/6/2020 0:00Dollar452457452457Low
10/6/2020 0:00Pounds580585580585Low
10/6/2020 0:00Euro535540535540Low
10/5/2020 0:00Dollar452455452455Low
10/5/2020 0:00Pounds570580570580Low
10/5/2020 0:00Euro540545540545Low
10/2/2020 0:00Dollar460465460465Low
10/2/2020 0:00Pounds575585575585Low
10/2/2020 0:00Euro530540530540Low
10/1/2020 0:00Dollar460465460465Low
10/1/2020 0:00Pounds575585575585Low
10/1/2020 0:00Euro530540530540Low
9/30/2020Dollar460465460465Low
9/30/2020Pounds570580570580Low
9/30/2020Euro530535530535Low
9/29/2020Dollar460465460465Low
9/29/2020Pounds565575570580Low
9/29/2020Euro530535530535Low
9/28/2020Dollar460465460465Low
9/28/2020Pounds565570565570Low
9/28/2020Euro530535530535Low
9/25/2020Dollar460465460465Low
9/25/2020Pounds565575565575Low
9/25/2020Euro535540535540Low
9/24/2020Dollar460465460465Low
9/24/2020Pounds565570565570Low
9/24/2020Euro535540535540Low
9/23/2020Dollar455460455460Low
9/23/2020Pounds580585580585Low
9/23/2020Euro535540535540Low
9/22/2020Dollar455460455460Low
9/22/2020Pounds575585575580Low
9/22/2020Euro530535530535Low
9/21/2020Dollar453455450455Low
9/21/2020Pounds565570565570Low
9/21/2020Euro525530525530Low
9/18/2020Dollar450460450460Low
9/18/2020Pounds575595575595Low
9/18/2020Euro535540535540Low
9/17/2020Dollar455460455460Low
9/17/2020Pounds570580570580Low
9/17/2020Euro530535530535Low
9/16/2020Dollar450460450460Low
9/16/2020Pounds565570565570Low
9/16/2020Euro525530525530Low
9/15/2020Dollar450460450460Low
9/15/2020Pounds565570565570Low
9/15/2020Euro525530525530Low
9/14/2020Dollar445455445455Low
9/14/2020Pounds560575560575Low
9/14/2020Euro515525515525Low
9/11/2020 0:00Dollar450455450455Low
9/11/2020 0:00Pounds555565555565Low
9/11/2020 0:00Euro525530525530Low
9/10/2020 0:00Dollar455460455460Low
9/10/2020 0:00Pounds545560545560Low
9/10/2020 0:00Euro525530525530Low
9/9/2020 0:00Dollar430440430440Low
9/9/2020 0:00Pounds540555540555Low
9/9/2020 0:00Euro500510500510Low
9/8/2020 0:00Dollar435440435440Low
9/8/2020 0:00Pounds540550540550Low
9/8/2020 0:00Euro505515505515Low
9/7/2020 0:00Dollar435440435440Low
9/7/2020 0:00Pounds525530525530Low
9/7/2020 0:00Euro505515505515Low
9/4/2020 0:00Dollar425440425440Low
9/4/2020 0:00Pounds560580560580Low
9/4/2020 0:00Euro505515505515Low
9/3/2020 0:00Dollar425440425440Low
9/3/2020 0:00Pounds560580560580Low
9/3/2020 0:00Euro520535505515High
9/2/2020 0:00Dollar425440425440Low
9/2/2020 0:00Pounds570580560580Low
9/2/2020 0:00Euro535540520535Low
9/1/2020 0:00Dollar462465435440High
9/1/2020 0:00Pounds565575570580Low
9/1/2020 0:00Euro535540535540Low
8/31/2020Dollar463470460465High
8/31/2020Pounds585595580590Low
8/31/2020Euro540545540545Low
8/28/2020Dollar472477472477Low
8/28/2020Pounds580595580595Low
8/28/2020Euro545552545552Low
8/27/2020Dollar472477472477Low
8/27/2020Pounds580590580590Low
8/27/2020Euro542552542552Low
8/26/2020Dollar472477472477Low
8/26/2020Pounds580590580590Low
8/26/2020Euro542552542552Low
8/25/2020Dollar472477472477Low
8/25/2020Pounds575585575585Low
8/25/2020Euro542552542552Low
8/24/2020Dollar473477473477Low
8/24/2020Pounds580590580590Low
8/24/2020Euro542550542550Low
8/21/2020Dollar474477474477Low
8/21/2020Pounds575585575585Low
8/21/2020Euro545550545550Low
8/20/2020Dollar475478473477Low
8/20/2020Pounds575585575585Low
8/20/2020Euro540550540550Low
8/19/2020Dollar475480475480Low
8/19/2020Pounds575585575585Low
8/19/2020Euro540550540550Low
8/18/2020Dollar477480477480Low
8/18/2020Pounds575580575580Low
8/18/2020Euro545550545550Low
8/17/2020Dollar470475470475Low
8/17/2020Pounds580590580590Low
8/17/2020Euro525535525535Low
8/14/2020Dollar470475470475Low
8/14/2020Pounds570580570580Low
8/14/2020Euro525535520535Low
8/13/2020Dollar470475470475Low
8/13/2020Pounds570575565575Low
8/13/2020Euro525530520530Low
8/12/2020 0:00Dollar470475470475Low
8/12/2020 0:00Pounds570575570575Low
8/12/2020 0:00Euro520530520530Low
8/11/2020 0:00Dollar477485477485Low
8/11/2020 0:00Pounds572584572584Low
8/11/2020 0:00Euro510523520535Low
8/10/2020 0:00Dollar477485477485Low
8/10/2020 0:00Pounds572584572584Low
8/10/2020 0:00Euro510523520535High
8/7/2020 0:00Dollar475486475486Low
8/7/2020 0:00Pounds578585578585Low
8/7/2020 0:00Euro536550536550Low
8/6/2020 0:00Dollar470480475486Low
8/6/2020 0:00Pounds575587578585Low
8/6/2020 0:00Euro534545536550Low
8/5/2020 0:00Dollar465475473483Low
8/5/2020 0:00Pounds570580575587Low
8/5/2020 0:00Euro525540532545Low
8/4/2020 0:00Dollar470480470480Low
8/4/2020 0:00Pounds560570560570Low
8/4/2020 0:00Euro520530520530Low
8/3/2020 0:00Dollar470480470480Low
8/3/2020 0:00Pounds560570560570Low
8/3/2020 0:00Euro520530520530Low
7/31/2020Dollar470480470485High
7/31/2020Pounds570582575585Low
7/31/2020Euro500520505520Low
7/30/2020Dollar470490470485High
7/30/2020Pounds550570550580High
7/30/2020Euro495520500525High
7/29/2020Dollar468475467475Low
7/29/2020Pounds575585580590Low
7/29/2020Euro530540530545Low
7/28/2020Dollar469475467475Low
7/28/2020Pounds575593580595Low
7/28/2020Euro550560540550Low
7/27/2020Dollar465473466473Low
7/27/2020Pounds570580575583Low
7/27/2020Euro510520515530Low
7/24/2020Dollar465472464472Low
7/24/2020Pounds570580572582Low
7/24/2020Euro510520505520Low
7/23/2020Dollar460472465472Low
7/23/2020Pounds565575565580Low
7/23/2020Euro510520505520Low
7/22/2020Dollar465472465472Low
7/22/2020Pounds565575560578Low
7/22/2020Euro510525510528Low
7/21/2020Dollar461472462472Low
7/21/2020Pounds560573560575Low
7/21/2020Euro498515500520Low
7/20/2020Dollar460473462473Low
7/20/2020Pounds550570555575Low
7/20/2020Euro495505500510Low
7/17/2020Dollar462470460470Low
7/17/2020Pounds560570558570Low
7/17/2020Euro490500490500Low
7/16/2020Dollar460470460470Low
7/16/2020Pounds558565560570Low
7/16/2020Euro485495485499Low
7/15/2020Dollar455465455470Low
7/15/2020Pounds560565558570Low
7/15/2020Euro485495488498Low
7/14/2020Dollar448462455470Low
7/14/2020Pounds540550557570Low
7/14/2020Euro485495489498Low
7/13/2020Dollar450460448462Low
7/13/2020Pounds540550540550Low
7/13/2020Euro485495485495Low
7/10/2020 0:00Dollar453460458465Low
7/10/2020 0:00Pounds520525550555High
7/10/2020 0:00Euro465467510520High
7/9/2020 0:00Dollar455461455463Low
7/9/2020 0:00Pounds550558550562Low
7/9/2020 0:00Euro495504498505Low
7/8/2020 0:00Dollar455461455461Low
7/8/2020 0:00Pounds550558550558Low
7/8/2020 0:00Euro495504495504Low
7/7/2020 0:00Dollar455461455461Low
7/7/2020 0:00Pounds550558550558Low
7/7/2020 0:00Euro495502495502Low
7/6/2020 0:00Dollar455462455461Low
7/6/2020 0:00Pounds550562547555Low
7/6/2020 0:00Euro495502496502Low
7/3/2020 0:00Dollar455462454461Low
7/3/2020 0:00Pounds548560550560Low
7/3/2020 0:00Euro495505495502Low
7/2/2020 0:00Dollar455462454461Low
7/2/2020 0:00Pounds548560550560Low
7/2/2020 0:00Euro495505495502Low
7/1/2020 0:00Dollar455462455462Low
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Data is collated from various black market dealers on the mainland and island parts of Lagos State where forex is sold. The price quoted daily on this page represents the average price obtained by our Research Team. Our prices are a guide and could be slightly different from the price you get when you eventually decide to buy or sell. This is a daily tracker and updated close of business. See table below for parallel market exchange rate dating to 2019.

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Currencies

Nigeria: Pressure on FX to continue in 2021 – Report

Pressure on FX will continue in 2021 as a result of thin reserve buffers and recovering domestic demands.

Published

on

Foreign Exchange: FX demand backlog, Naira gains against the dollar at I&E window, forex liquidity up by 66% 

EFG Hermes has revealed that pressure on FX will continue in 2021 as a result of thin reserve buffers and recovering domestic demands.

This is contained in its recently released report, 2021 The Year Ahead – Is The Recovery In The Price?

The company envisages that adjustment in the country’s current setting is driven primarily by its view that the country’s FX conditions are likely to remain tight in 2021.

READ: EFG Hermes concludes advisory on Al Habib Group’s $700 million IPO

Further noting that higher oil prices – with a USD55/bbl forecast for 2021 – would still fall short of providing the adequate liquidity needed to ease FX shortages.

Specta

According to the company, despite Nigeria’s economy facing a twin-problem of the pandemic shock and lower oil prices, it believes the country is attempting recovery with very few buffers, leaving the economy vulnerable to further shocks.

With rates depressed as they are, the country stands no chance in attracting foreign portfolio investments, which were key in easing liquidity shortages back in 2017.

READ: Central Bank says monetary policy not to blame for rising food cost

What they are saying

The report notes that:

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  • Inflexible currency policy leaves the system plagued with backlogs and a parallel market that is trading at a +20% premium, with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) adopting a policy of reserve conservation (vehemently defending the $35 billion level).
  • “Chronic fiscal problems, mostly in the form of weak revenue collection, has rendered the fiscal channel broken, with a debt service burden ratio of 80%.
  • “The country’s macro position has been further complicated by the absence of major reform initiatives by the government, as a result, depriving it of much-needed financial support. Out of a $6.9 billion package, the country only received $3.4 billion from the IMF, with USD3.5bn from the World Bank and African Development Bank.”

READ: Investors channel funds to forex, equity after OMO ban- Report

What EFG Hermes is advising

  • The report acknowledges that the government has taken certain steps to reform the economy, including de-regulation of fuel prices, and the devaluation of currency by the CBN a couple of times. However, outcomes differ from forecasts, further exposing the economy to highly vulnerable external shocks.
  • The company sees the current policy mix of high inflation, highly depressed rates, overvalued official exchange rate and various monetary policy regulations (mostly on banks’ liquidity) as highly unsustainable, contending that something must be done this year.
  • The company, therefore, asserts that interest rates has to be the target and should jack up from their current near-zero level.
  • The recently approved $1.5 billion loan from the World Bank, as well as a potential Eurobond issuance, are likely to ease short-term FX pressures. Nevertheless, these funds are unlikely to be a game changer and FX pressure would fundamentally require authorities to continue with import controls and an overall tight monetary policy.

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Currencies

Naira remains stable across forex markets as external reserve continues to rise

The Naira remained stable against the dollar at the Investors and Exporters (I&E) window on Friday, closing at N394.67/$1.

Published

on

Naira, Exchange rate falls across forex markets as dollar liquidity remains low

On January 17, 2021, the exchange rate between the naira and the dollar remained stable to close at N394.67/$1 at the NAFEX (I&E Window) where forex is traded officially.

This is exactly the same rate that was recorded the previous trading day, 14 January 2021.

Also, the exchange rate at the black market where forex traded unofficially maintained stability at N475/$1. The exchange rate at the parallel market closed at N475/$1 on the previous trading day of January 14, 2021.

This is as Nigeria’s external reserve continues to experience a steady rise.

The exchange rate disparity between the parallel market and the official market is about N80.33, representing a 16.9% devaluation differential.

Specta

READ: Naira strengthens at NAFEX window despite 38% drop in dollar supply

NAFEX

The Naira remained stable against the dollar at the Investors and Exporters (I&E) window on Friday, closing at N394.67/$1, the same rate that it closed on the previous trading day.

  • The opening indicative rate was N393.12 to a dollar on Friday, representing a 44 kobo drop when compared to the N392.68 that was recorded on Thursday, January 14, 2021.
  • The N414.76 to a dollar was the highest rate during intra-day trading before it closed at N394.67 to a dollar. It also sold for as low as N389/$1 during intra-day trading.
  • Forex turnover at the Investor and Exporters (I&E) window declined by 81.3% on Friday, January 15, 2021.
  • According to the data tracked by Nairametrics from FMDQ, forex turnover dropped from $215.63 million on Thursday, January 14, 2021, to $40.31 million on Friday, January 15, 2021.
  • The average daily forex sale for last week was about $169.93 million, which represents a huge increase from the $34.5 million that was recorded the previous week.
  • The exchange rate is still being affected by low oil prices, dollar scarcity, a backlog of forex demand and a shaky economy that has been hit by the coronavirus pandemic.

READ: FG posts 27% revenue shortfall in 2020 as budget deficit hit N6.1 trillion

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Oil price steady rise

Brent crude oil price is currently at $54.88 per barrel on Monday, as it moves towards the $60 mark, a strong sign that global demand could sustain price increases in 2021.

  • Nigeria’s crude oil price benchmark for 2020 was $40 while it projected an oil production output of 1.8 million barrels per day.
  • Nigeria has a production capacity of 2.5 million barrels per day but is subject to OPEC’s crude oil production cuts, which are expected to help sustain higher oil prices.
  • The higher oil prices and steady production output have positively impacted Nigeria’s external reserves, rising sharply to $36.304 million according to central bank data dated January 14, 2020.
  • This is the highest level since July 2020 and a sign that higher oil prices and steady output levels may be contributing significantly to Nigeria’s foreign exchange position.

READ: Nigerian economy since 1980: Are we under a resource curse?

Nigeria rising external reserves

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  • The external reserve is about 5% off the $38.2 billion held as at this time last year.
  • Nigeria needs the external reserves to hit $40 billion if it is to adequately meet some of the pent up demand that has piled up since 2020 when oil prices crashed and the pandemic caused major economic lockdowns.
  • Nigeria is also close to obtaining a World Bank $1.5 billion facility which will boost external reserves when it is disbursed.
  • Nairametrics understands that the central bank might be required to devalue further and relax some of its capital controls if it is to receive the funds from the world bank.

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