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Home Markets Currencies

Naira falls across forex markets, demand pressure increases despite huge dollar supply

Chike Olisah by Chike Olisah
November 12, 2020
in Currencies, Spotlight
Naira strengthens at forex market despite significant drop in dollar supply, Exchange rate gains at the black market as FX Turnover rises over 1000%.
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Forex turnover rose by 45.5% as Nigeria’s exchange rate at the NAFEX window depreciated against the dollar to close at N385.83/$1 during intra-day trading on Wednesday, November 11.

Also, the naira depreciated against the dollar, closing at N466/$1 at the parallel market on Wednesday, November 11, 2020, as demand pressure increases in the forex market.

Parallel market: According to information from Abokifx – a prominent FX tracking website, at the black market where forex is traded unofficially, the Naira depreciated against the dollar to close at N466/$1 on Wednesday.

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This represents a N1 drop when compared to the N465/$1 that it exchanged for on Tuesday, November 10.

  • The local currency had strengthened by about 7.8% within one week in September at the black market, as the CBN introduced some measures targeted at exporters and importers.
  • This was so as to try to boost the supply of dollars in the foreign exchange market, and reduce the high demand for forex by traders.
  • The CBN has sold over $500 million to BDCs since they resumed forex sales on Monday, September 7, 2020.
  • This was expected to inject more liquidity to the retail end of the foreign exchange market and discourage hoarding and speculation.
  • However, the exchange rate against the dollar has remained volatile after the initial gains made, following the CBN’s resumption of sales of dollars to the BDCs.
  • The President of the Association of Bureau De Change Operators, Aminu Gwadebe, said he expects the impact of the extra liquidity in the market to be gradual.
  • Despite the drop in speculative buying of foreign exchange, the huge demand backlog by manufacturers and foreign investors still puts pressure and creates a volatile situation in the foreign exchange market.

NAFEX: The Naira depreciated against the dollar at the Investors and Exporters (I&E) window on Wednesday, closing at N385.83/$1.

  • This represents a 16 kobo drop when compared to the N385.67/$1 that it exchanged for on Tuesday, November 10.
  • The opening indicative rate was N385.99 to a dollar on Wednesday. This also represents a 16 kobo drop when compared to the N385.83 that was recorded on Tuesday.
  • The N393.43 to a dollar was the highest rate during intra-day trading before it closed at N385.83 to a dollar. It also sold for as low as N381/$1 during intraday trading.
  • Forex turnover: Forex turnover at the Investor and Exporters (I&E) window rose by 45.5% on Wednesday, November 11, 2020.
  • According to the data tracked by Nairametrics from FMDQ, forex turnover rose from $140.95 million on Tuesday, November 10, 2020, to $205.05 million on Wednesday, November 11, 2020.
  • The CBN is still struggling to clear the backlog of foreign exchange demand, especially by foreign investors wishing to repatriate their funds.
  • The increase in dollar supply after the previous trading day’s drop reinforces the volatility of the foreign exchange market. The supply of dollars has been on a decline for months due to low oil prices and the absence of foreign capital inflow into the country.
  • The average daily forex sale for last week was about $169.93 million, which represents a huge increase from the $34.5 million that was recorded the previous week.
  • Total forex trading at the NAFEX window in the month of September was about $1.98 billion, compared to $843.97 million in August.
  • The exchange rate is still being affected by low oil prices, dollar scarcity, a backlog of forex demand, and a shaky economy that has been hit by the coronavirus pandemic.
  • A financial expert and Managing Director of Financial Derivatives had stated that he expects the exchange rate at the parallel market to likely depreciate to N470-N475/$1 in November and December due to low oil prices that will further limit foreign exchange supply.

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Tags: CBNforexI&E windowNAFEX
Chike Olisah

Chike Olisah

Chike was a banker with over 11 years experience in retail and commercial banking, risk management, treasury portfolio management and relationship management. He also acquired some experience in financial management and do have some special interest in investment analysis and personal finance. He had stints with financial institutions like the former Intercontinental Bank and Fidelity Bank.

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Comments 1

  1. mario says:
    November 12, 2020 at 5:49 pm

    this it’s the worst government ever, why don’t Cbn devalue naira and provide dollars I have lose millions,

    Reply

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