Connect with us
Switch

Macro-Economic News

World Bank predicts Nigeria’s impending recession will be worst in 40 years

New World Bank report paints a grim picture of Nigeria

Published

on

World Bank predicts Nigeria's impending recession will be worst in 40 years

A new world bank report seen by Nairametrics has painted a very grim picture of the economy today and in the future. According to the World Bank, Nigeria is facing “potentially the most severe downturn in four decades…even if the outbreak is contained”. 

The report was included in a webinar presentation “ALIPA Webinar” dated August 27, 2020.

According to the World Bank, the double whammy of the oil price fall, and the COVID-19 pandemic has put Nigeria on the path to economic ruin and may not get out of it quickly if significant policy changes are not made. The report pointed out that the Oil Price Collapse is Destabilizing the economy and affecting fiscal and external balances, and growth.

Get corporate data from Nairametrics on Nairaytics

It also lamented that the Covid-19 Pandemic is reducing foreign remittances and adding to the households’ loss of income and consumption. It also exclaimed that foreign capital inflows are also expected to decline adding to external payment pressures.

Specta

With all these grim predictions it projects a GDP contraction of -3% for 2020 “possibly triggering the worst recession in four decades.” The National Bureau of Statistics on Monday reported the Nigerian economy contracted by 6.1% in the second quarter of the year due to the Covid-19 pandemic and the crash in oil prices.

READ: Why Nigerians should consider investing in Commodities

The fallout of an Economic Contraction

  • Jobs, already scarce from the 2016 recession, will be that much harder to find
  • Many Nigerians are expected to fall into poverty as incomes fall while the population continues to rise
  • Women and workers in the informal sector are likely to be more affected

The presentation also suggested what Nigeria must do to get out of the woods.

Coronation ads
  1. Containing the COVID-19 outbreak and preparing for a more severe outbreak.
  2. Enhancing macroeconomic management to boost investor confidence
  3. Safeguarding and mobilizing revenues
  4. Reprioritizing public spending to protect critical development expenditures
  5. Supporting economic activity and providing relief for poor and vulnerable communities

READ ALSO: 2020 Q2 Analysis: Conoil Plc, hanging by the thread

Key Policy changes for Nigeria proposed

The World Bank also outlined suggestions for Nigeria’s foreign exchange management as well as some of its economic policies

  • Unify exchange rates into a single window, and increase exchange rate flexibility now, before foreign exchange reserves are further depleted and pressures mount for a much larger and disruptive devaluation that would hurt the poor
  • Ease foreign exchange restrictions to limit inflationary pressures and increase supply of food and key staples (e.g., health-related products).
  • Refocus management of monetary policy toward the primary objective of price stability
  • Phase-out land border closures to limit inflation and direct private sector development to more competitive ends
  • Continue making management of public debt more transparent
  • Review prudential requirements related to bank sales of non-performing loans to AMCON and similar companies to transparently streamline the process for efficient resolution of nonperforming loans

Go deeper==> download the report below;

Download (PDF, 1.63MB)

Coronation ads

Stanbic IBTC
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Macro-Economic News

Price Watch: Nigerians paid less for Kerosene in December 2020

NBS Report shows that consumers paid less for Kerosene in December than they did in November 2020.

Published

on

Average prices of Kerosene, Diesel and Cooking Gas in Nigeria

The latest National Bureau for Statistics (NBS) Price Watch report for the month of December 2020 indicates that the average price per litre paid by consumers for National Household Kerosene reduced by 0.17% from N353.38 in November 2020 to N352.79 in December 2020.

Also according to the report, the average price per gallon paid by consumers for National Household Kerosene reduced by 3.52% from N1,218.50 in November 2020 to N1,175.59 in December 2020.

Price variations across states

  • In the month of December 2020, States with the highest average price per litre of kerosene include; Benue (N436.81), Ebonyi (N425.83) and Taraba (N423.33).
  • However, consumers in Bayelsa (N235.95), Rivers (N302.04) and Delta (N307.69) enjoyed the lowest average price per litre of kerosene.
  • Consumers in Kebbi (N1,534.21), Nasarawa (N1,488.00) and Benue (N1,450.00) paid the highest average price per gallon of kerosene.
  • While consumers in Sokoto (N733.33), Bayelsa (N773.75) and Adamawa (N822.00) on the other hand, paid the lowest average price per gallon of kerosene.

Prices across zones

  • Consumers in South-East zone paid the highest average price for a litre of Kerosene (N377.53), followed by North East (N370.13), North West (N354.66), North Central (N354.44) while consumers in South West(N337.57) and South South (N325.96) paid the lowest average price for a litre of Kerosene.
  • In respect of the average price paid for a gallon of Kerosene, consumers in North West zone paid the highest (N1,197.54), followed by North Central (N1,305.68), South East (N1,220.66), while consumers in South West (N1,161.00), North East (N1,113.25) and South-South(N1,037.60) paid the lowest average price of a gallon of kerosene.

Why this matters

Kerosene has remained an important source of energy for cooking for most families, both in the rural areas and cities. Kerosene is mostly used in rural areas as a source of lighting.

Considering that food and lighting are very essential to life, it is therefore important that the price paid for Kerosene is quite reasonable and as well as affordable for most Nigerians.

Specta
Continue Reading

Macro-Economic News

Nigeria’s inflation rate hits 15.75% in December 2020, highest in 3 years

This is 0.86% points higher than the rate of 14.89% recorded in November 2020.

Published

on

Despite billions on agriculture, food inflation up by 108% since 2015.

Nigeria’s inflation rate increased by 15.75% (year-on-year) in December 2020, the highest rate recorded in 3 years.

According to the latest Consumer Price Index report, released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the latest figure is 0.86% points higher than the rate of 14.89% recorded in November 2020.

On a month-on-month basis, the index increased by 1.61% in December 2020. This is 0.01% point higher than the rate recorded in November 2020 (1.60%).

READ: Inflation rate up 207% since 2009 as bad economic policies ravages naira.

Food inflation

Specta

The closely watched index rose sharply by 19.56% in December compared to 18.3% recorded in the previous month.

  • On a month-on-month basis, the food sub-index increased by 2.05% in December 2020, up by 0.01% point from 2.04% recorded in November 2020.
  • The rise in the food index was caused by increases recorded in prices of bread and cereals, potatoes, yam and other tubers, meat, fruits, vegetable, fish and oils and fats.

READ: Hope rises for employment in December 2020 and January 2021 – CBN survey Report 

Core inflation

The “All items less farm produce’‘ or Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce stood at 11.37% in December 2020, up by 0.32% when compared with 11.05% recorded in November 2020.

Coronation ads
  • Also, on a month-on-month basis, the core sub-index increased by 1.10% in December 2020. This was up by 0.39% when compared with 0.71% recorded in November 2020.
  • The highest increases were recorded in prices of passenger transport by air, medical services, hospital services, shoes and other footwear, passenger transport by road, miscellaneous services relating to dwellings, hairdressing salons and personal grooming establishments, and repair of furniture.
  • Others include vehicle spare parts, pharmaceutical products, motor cars, maintenance and repair of personal transport equipment, paramedical services, motorcycle, dental services, and bicycles.

READ: Cost of data subscription reduces by over 50% in 2020

Worst hit states

  • In the month of December 2020, Bauchi State recorded the highest inflation rate at 19.85%, closely followed by Kogi State with an inflation rate of 18.4%
  • Others include Edo (18.1%), Zamfara (17.9%), and Sokoto (17.6%)
  • In terms of food inflation, Edo State also recorded the highest rise in inflation rate with 24.1%, followed by Kogi (23.16%), Sokoto (22.2%); while Kwara and Zamfara State recorded food inflation of 22.1% and 21.7% respectively.

READ: Nigeria’s inflation expected to maintain double digit in the next one year

Coronation ads

Meanwhile, the urban inflation rate increased by 16.33% (year-on-year) in December 2020 from 15.47% recorded in November 2020, while the rural inflation rate increased by 15.20% compared to 14.33% recorded in November 2020.

Stanbic IBTC

What this means

The rise in the consumer price index indicates that consumers spent more in the month of December compared to the previous month.

Jaiz bank ads
  • This implies that the purchasing power of Nigerians is continually eroding.
  • Nigerians could be faced with new worries if the second wave of the covid-19 pandemic leads to a second round of lockdown in the country.
  • The significant increase could, however, be attributed to the Christmas and New year festivities in the month of December.

Continue Reading

Macro-Economic News

Nigeria’s total public debt rises to N32.2 trillion ($84.57 billion) as at September 2020.

The total public debt (External and Domestic) incurred by Nigeria stood at N32.22 trillion ($84.57 billion) as of September 2020.

Published

on

How to avoid debt despite economic challenges

Nigeria’s total public debt stock as of September 2020, increased by over N6 trillion in just one year. This is according to the Nigerian Domestic and Foreign Debt report, recently released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The total public debt (External and Domestic) incurred by Nigeria stood at N32.22 trillion ($84.57 billion) as of September 2020, which represents an additional N6.01 trillion when compared to N26.21 trillion recorded as of the corresponding period of 2019.

READ: Nigeria total public debt hits N31 trillion as debt service gulp over N1.2 trillion in H1 2020 

The breakdown shows that external debts accounted for 37.82% (N12.19 trillion) of the total debt stock, while domestic debts at N20.04 trillion represented 62.18% of the total.

Breakdown

  • Further disaggregation of Nigeria’s foreign debt showed that $16.74bn of the debt was multilateral.
  • Also, $502.38m was bilateral (AFD) and another $3.26bn bilateral from the Exim Bank of China, JICA, India, and
    KFW while $11.17bn was commercial which are Eurobonds and Diaspora Bonds.
  • Total external debt grew by $5.04 billion (N3.9 trillion) within the period, indicating an increase of 18.72%.
  • Total domestic debt on the other hand declined by $5.86 billion. However, it represents an increase in Naira value of N2.09 trillion, largely due to multiple devaluations of the currency during the period.

READ: Growing concern for Nigeria’s ballooning debt profile

Specta

A cursory look at the breakdown of the domestic debts show that 73.53% (N11.65 trillion) were in form of Federal Government bonds, 17.17% (N2.72 trillion) in Treasury bills, followed by Promissory Notes accounting for 6.13% (N971.9 billion) of the total federal government domestic debts.

Others include; FGN Sukuk (N362.6 billion), Treasury Bonds (N100.9 billion), Green bond (N25.7 billion), and Savings bond (N12.6 billion).

READ: Debt burden of the least developed nations rises to $744 billion – World Bank

More loans to be expected

Coronation ads

On the 31st of December 2020, President Buhari signed the 2021 appropriation bill of N13.59 trillion into law, which 25.7% higher than the revised 2020 budget of  N10.8 trillion. However, the budget comes with a deficit of N5.6 trillion, which is expected to be financed mainly through borrowings both externally and domestically.

READ: Global Economy to grow by 4% in 2021 – World Bank

According to the minister of Finance, Budget, and National Planning, Dr. Zainab Ahmed, in a budget presentation on Tuesday, N2.34 trillion will be sourced each from domestic and foreign sources respectively, N709.69 billion from Multilateral/bilateral loan drawdowns, and N205.15 billion from privatisation proceeds.

READ: Analysis: Nigeria needs an austerity diet

Coronation ads

Recall that Nairametrics reported in December that, the World Bank finally approved a $1.5 billion loan request made by Nigeria as budget support in order to cushion the impact of the covid-19 pandemic on the country’s revenue.

Stanbic IBTC

It is also worth noting that the federal government will be tapping into funds in unclaimed funds and dormant accounts.

Jaiz bank ads
Continue Reading
Advertisement




Advertisement