The National Bureau of Statistics on Monday reported that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted by -6.1% in the second quarter of 2020.
Economic growth during the year was adversely affected by the crash in oil prices in the second quarter of the year as well as the Covid-19 pandemic. Oil GDP contracted by -6.63% while non-oil GDP contracted by -6.05%.
In terms of sub-sectors, the Services sector contracted by -6.78% while Industries performed worse with a contraction of -12.05%. The agriculture sector however reported a tepid growth of 1.58%. Several sub-sectors fell into recessions as other factors such as border closure, import substitutions, and weak purchasing power has also negatively impacted economic growth.
For example, the Trade sector has posted negative GDP growth rates since the second quarter of 2019. The sector has been the hardest hit by border closure policies and lack of forex to import items. In addition, accommodation and Food services, which include hotels and restaurants fell into recession after posting two consecutive quarters of GDP growth rate.
Despite the challenges that have resulted in negative GDP growth rates for key sectors, there are sectors in the economy that escaped avoided a contraction completely and instead recorded GDP growth rate in the second quarter of 2020.
Fastest Growing Sectors
Telecommunications which is a sub-sector under the Information and Communication sector reported an 18.1% GDP growth rate in the second quarter of the year was one of the fastest-growing sectors in the country. The sector nearly doubled the 9.71% GDP growth rate recorded in the first quarter of 2020. The Telecommunications sector includes GSM Giants like MTN and Airtel.
The Financial Institutions sub-sector reported a GDP growth rate of 28.41% one of the fastest in the economy. This sector includes banks and other non-banking financial institutions. The sector recorded a 24$ GDP Growth rate in the first quarter of 2020.
The health sector which many thought will benefit immensely from the Covid-19 Pandemic only reported a GDP growth rate of 1.89% up from 1.06% in the first quarter of the year.
Other sectors with impressive GDP growth rates
What the numbers mean: Businesses in Sectors with the fastest GDP Growth rate suggest areas of growth in a largely battered economy. These are sectors where money is currently being made at a faster rate than inflation. By reporting economic growth these sectors will be able to do the following;
- Attract significant investments
- They will also spend a lot more on capital expenditure which is in line with the growth figures
- The will also be highly considered by commercial banks for loans
- For shareholders and investors, they will be able to pay a dividend and produce a tangible economic growth rate
- Employees in this sector have less pressure for job losses and could in fact attract salary raises.
- These are sectors that will spend significantly on scaling their operations.
Nigeria’s inflation rate hits 15.75% in December 2020, highest in 3 years
This is 0.86% points higher than the rate of 14.89% recorded in November 2020.
Nigeria’s inflation rate increased by 15.75% (year-on-year) in December 2020, the highest rate recorded in 3 years.
According to the latest Consumer Price Index report, released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the latest figure is 0.86% points higher than the rate of 14.89% recorded in November 2020.
On a month-on-month basis, the index increased by 1.61% in December 2020. This is 0.01% point higher than the rate recorded in November 2020 (1.60%).
The closely watched index rose sharply by 19.56% in December compared to 18.3% recorded in the previous month.
- On a month-on-month basis, the food sub-index increased by 2.05% in December 2020, up by 0.01% point from 2.04% recorded in November 2020.
- The rise in the food index was caused by increases recorded in prices of bread and cereals, potatoes, yam and other tubers, meat, fruits, vegetable, fish and oils and fats.
The “All items less farm produce’‘ or Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce stood at 11.37% in December 2020, up by 0.32% when compared with 11.05% recorded in November 2020.
- Also, on a month-on-month basis, the core sub-index increased by 1.10% in December 2020. This was up by 0.39% when compared with 0.71% recorded in November 2020.
- The highest increases were recorded in prices of passenger transport by air, medical services, hospital services, shoes and other footwear, passenger transport by road, miscellaneous services relating to dwellings, hairdressing salons and personal grooming establishments, and repair of furniture.
- Others include vehicle spare parts, pharmaceutical products, motor cars, maintenance and repair of personal transport equipment, paramedical services, motorcycle, dental services, and bicycles.
Worst hit states
- In the month of December 2020, Bauchi State recorded the highest inflation rate at 19.85%, closely followed by Kogi State with an inflation rate of 18.4%
- Others include Edo (18.1%), Zamfara (17.9%), and Sokoto (17.6%)
- In terms of food inflation, Edo State also recorded the highest rise in inflation rate with 24.1%, followed by Kogi (23.16%), Sokoto (22.2%); while Kwara and Zamfara State recorded food inflation of 22.1% and 21.7% respectively.
Meanwhile, the urban inflation rate increased by 16.33% (year-on-year) in December 2020 from 15.47% recorded in November 2020, while the rural inflation rate increased by 15.20% compared to 14.33% recorded in November 2020.
What this means
The rise in the consumer price index indicates that consumers spent more in the month of December compared to the previous month.
- This implies that the purchasing power of Nigerians is continually eroding.
- Nigerians could be faced with new worries if the second wave of the covid-19 pandemic leads to a second round of lockdown in the country.
- The significant increase could, however, be attributed to the Christmas and New year festivities in the month of December.
Nigeria’s total public debt rises to N32.2 trillion ($84.57 billion) as at September 2020.
The total public debt (External and Domestic) incurred by Nigeria stood at N32.22 trillion ($84.57 billion) as of September 2020.
Nigeria’s total public debt stock as of September 2020, increased by over N6 trillion in just one year. This is according to the Nigerian Domestic and Foreign Debt report, recently released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The total public debt (External and Domestic) incurred by Nigeria stood at N32.22 trillion ($84.57 billion) as of September 2020, which represents an additional N6.01 trillion when compared to N26.21 trillion recorded as of the corresponding period of 2019.
The breakdown shows that external debts accounted for 37.82% (N12.19 trillion) of the total debt stock, while domestic debts at N20.04 trillion represented 62.18% of the total.
- Further disaggregation of Nigeria’s foreign debt showed that $16.74bn of the debt was multilateral.
- Also, $502.38m was bilateral (AFD) and another $3.26bn bilateral from the Exim Bank of China, JICA, India, and
KFW while $11.17bn was commercial which are Eurobonds and Diaspora Bonds.
- Total external debt grew by $5.04 billion (N3.9 trillion) within the period, indicating an increase of 18.72%.
- Total domestic debt on the other hand declined by $5.86 billion. However, it represents an increase in Naira value of N2.09 trillion, largely due to multiple devaluations of the currency during the period.
A cursory look at the breakdown of the domestic debts show that 73.53% (N11.65 trillion) were in form of Federal Government bonds, 17.17% (N2.72 trillion) in Treasury bills, followed by Promissory Notes accounting for 6.13% (N971.9 billion) of the total federal government domestic debts.
Others include; FGN Sukuk (N362.6 billion), Treasury Bonds (N100.9 billion), Green bond (N25.7 billion), and Savings bond (N12.6 billion).
More loans to be expected
On the 31st of December 2020, President Buhari signed the 2021 appropriation bill of N13.59 trillion into law, which 25.7% higher than the revised 2020 budget of N10.8 trillion. However, the budget comes with a deficit of N5.6 trillion, which is expected to be financed mainly through borrowings both externally and domestically.
According to the minister of Finance, Budget, and National Planning, Dr. Zainab Ahmed, in a budget presentation on Tuesday, N2.34 trillion will be sourced each from domestic and foreign sources respectively, N709.69 billion from Multilateral/bilateral loan drawdowns, and N205.15 billion from privatisation proceeds.
Recall that Nairametrics reported in December that, the World Bank finally approved a $1.5 billion loan request made by Nigeria as budget support in order to cushion the impact of the covid-19 pandemic on the country’s revenue.
It is also worth noting that the federal government will be tapping into funds in unclaimed funds and dormant accounts.
PMI: Nigeria’s manufacturing sector contracts in December
The manufacturing sector relapsed in December from 50.2 index points recorded in the month of November 2020.
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), for the month of December, witnessed a contraction, as it stood at 49.6 index points. This was disclosed in the PMI report, recently released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
According to the report, the manufacturing sector relapsed from 50.2 index points recorded in the month of November 2020. It however, gained marginally compared to 49.4 index points recorded in October 2020.
The report also disclosed that out of the 14 surveyed subsectors, 4 subsectors reported expansion (above 50% threshold) in the review month in the following order:
- Transportation equipment
- Nonmetallic mineral products
- Paper products
- Food, beverage & tobacco products.
However, textile, apparel, leather, and footwear subsector remained stationary while the remaining 9 subsectors reported contractions in the following order:
- Primary metal,
- Petroleum & coal products
- Electrical equipment
- Fabricated metal products
- Printing & related support activities
- Plastics & rubber products
- Chemical & pharmaceutical products and
- Furniture & related products
For context read: Nigeria’s manufacturing sector contracts for 4th consecutive month – CBN
PMI for the non-manufacturing sector stood at 45.7 points in the month of December 2020, indicating contraction in Non-manufacturing PMI for the ninth consecutive months.
Of the 17 surveyed sub-sectors, 5 subsectors reported growth in the following order:
- Arts, Entertainment & Recreation
- Water supply, sewage & waste management
- Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply
- Educational services and Professional
- Scientific & technical services
While twelve subsectors reported declines in the following order: Management of companies; Utilities; Transportation & warehousing; Real estate rental & leasing; Construction; Finance & insurance; Agriculture; Wholesale/Retail trade; Information & communication; Repair, Maintenance/Washing Of Motor Vehicles; Health care & social assistance and Accommodation & food services.
What you need to know
- In December 2020, suppliers’ delivery time was faster, new orders and production level increased while employment level and raw materials inventories contracted.
- The business activity index for the non-manufacturing sector contracted at 46.9 points from the expansionary level recorded in the month of November 2020.
- The employment level Index for the non-manufacturing sector in the month of December 2020 stood at 45.1 points, indicating contraction in employment level for the ninth consecutive months.
What this means
PMI is a survey that is conducted by the Statistics Department of the Central Bank of Nigeria and shows the changes in the level of business activities in the current month compared with the preceding month.
- For each of the indicators measured, this report shows the diffusion index of the responses, which is computed as the percentage of responses with positive change plus half of the percentage of those reporting no change, except for supplier delivery time, which is computed as the percentage of responses with negative change plus half of the percentage of those reporting no change.
- A composite PMI above 50 points indicates that the manufacturing/non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding. 50 points indicate that there is no change, while a PMI below 50 points indicates that it is generally contracting.
- A contraction in manufacturing activities means that the sector is yet to recover from the covid induced downturn which crippled the manufacturing activities for 6 consecutive months before recording slight expansion in the previous month.