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Commodities

Nigeria’s crude oil earnings under threat as India oil imports hit 10 year low

Nigeria relies on India for over 15% of export earnings

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Nigeria's crude oil earnings under threat as India oil imports hit 10 year low

Nigeria’s crude oil earnings faces a major threat after India, the world’s third-largest importer of crude, recorded its lowest oil imports in 10 years in the month of June.

Reports from Reuters indicate India oil imports dropped in the month of June as its refineries reduced demand due to maintenance and turnarounds. India reportedly imported 3.2 million barrels per day in June, the lowest since October 2011 and a 0.4% decline from May and 28.5% lower than the same period in 2019.

The report also indicates July has not been any better due to weak demand due to the effect of the coronavirus pandemic.

READ MORE: Nigeria’s cocoa exports to fall by $100m as prices rise in futures market.

It’s in the data

Nigeria is India’s 13th largest country of import behind other crude oil exporters such as the US, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and UAE. In contrast, India is Nigeria’s largest export destination. However, Iraq, Saudi and UAE are ahead of Nigeria as India’s top oil import countries.

Specta
  • In the quarter ending March 2020, Nigeria’s export to India was N637.5 billion or 15.6% of total exports. Crude oil represented N526.8 billion of the total export amount.
  • India replaced the US as Nigeria’s largest export destination for crude as demand for crude increased in the second-most populous country in the world.
  • India has been one of the fastest growing economies in the world with industrialization widening its appetite for crude. However, the impact of COVID-19 has halted economic growth in India.
  • The country is now next to the US and Brazil in countries with the most cases of COVID-19. India has over 1.4 million confirmed cases and 34k in reported deaths.

READ MORE: Govt. rakes in N653 billion in June as exchange rate gain, taxes and oil sales boost revenues

What it means for Nigeria

As Nigeria’s largest export destination, the country relies heavily on India’s patronage to meet its crude oil sales targets as the government braces for a negative GDP growth rate and an ensuing recession. Nigeria’s minister of Finance, Zainab Ahmed revealed Nigeria collected over 56% less retained revenues in the first 5 months of the year as oil prices crashed and demand waned.

READ ALSO: Crude oil prices rally higher following US $1 trillion stimulus plan 

Nigeria was able to mitigate lower oil revenues after it devalued its official exchange rate from N307/$1 to N360/$ in March. The government reported it shared N681 billion with states as FAAC in June 2020 higher than N547 billion shared in May 2020. FAAC revenues are mostly funded from oil revenues while non-oil revenue boost from the increase in VAT has also helped increase the amount available to share.

Nairametrics is Nigeria's top business news and financial analysis website. We focus on providing resources that help small businesses and retail investors make better investing decisions. Nairametrics is updated daily by a team of professionals. Post updated as "Nairametrics" are published by our Editorial Board.

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Commodities

Oil prices stay resilient amid pressure from COVID-19

Oil prices rallied after industry data showed U.S. crude inventories dropped unexpectedly last week amid fears that the COVID-19 infection,

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Oil workers will be paid N75 billion worth of salaries in 2020 , Oil production drops, as Nigeria complies with OPEC+ output cuts  , Global oil demand set to plunge by 29 mb/d Global oil demand set to plunge by 29 mb/d

Oil prices rallied at the mid-week trading session after industry data showed that U.S. crude inventories dropped unexpectedly last week amid fears that the COVID-19 infection rates were getting out of control.

  • U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 0.2%, to trade at $52.71 a barrel, reversing some of yesterday’s loss.
  • Brent crude oil futures rallied by 0.2% to $56.02 a barrel.

What this means: Recent data retrieved from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed crude oil inventories in the world’s biggest oil consumer, dropped by 5.3 million barrels in the week to Jan. 22 compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a build of 430,000 barrels.

READ: First cargo of Nigeria’s newest crude grade, Ayala, to arrive Europe

China’s National Health Commission revealed that the world’s largest importer of oil recorded 124 cases on Jan. 24, up from 80 earlier, which is the worst wave of new COVID-19 infections seen since March 2020.

Stephen Innes, Chief Global Market Strategist at Axi, in a note to Nairametrics, spoke on the prevailing macros helping oil prices though other reports reveal that oil would remain under pressure amid energy demand/supply rebalancing;

Specta

“Oil received a timely fillip after the API reported that US crude supplies declined 5.3 million barrels bullishly against consensuses.

READ: Gold prices stay firm, investors await Janet Yellen’s speech

“But problems may continue to linger under the hood as the data also reportedly indicated gasoline stock rose by near 3.1 million barrels. At the same time, the draws at Cushing make sense in backwardation markets.

“Even when mired in the pandemic’s darkest days, oil prices remain incredibly resilient in no small part due to OPEC’s dogged determination to stay in damage control mode adjusting supply constraints to alleviate the currently projected level of attrition to global demand.”

READ: Crude oil prices drop, COVID-19 cases hit 38 million

What to expect: While the general upward direction of travel in the market makes sense, it’s difficult for oil traders to make a definitive near-term shift to the next price level higher, given the very uncertain near-term demand outlook.

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Commodities

Gold traders remain cautious despite urgency in $1.9 trillion stimulus plan

Gold traders are of the bias that the precious market is heading from neutral to bearish…

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gold, Gold fast losing the battle to Bitcoin

Gold prices at Tuesday’s trading session moved slightly higher, despite the White House’s recent statement that there’s an “urgency” to passing the $1.9 trillion stimulus plan.

What you should know: At press time, gold futures were trading at around $1860/ounce.

Gold bug’s upside this week seems to be curbed in spite of its surge last week when it rose more than $26, or 1.4%, after losing almost 3.5% in two previous weeks combined.

READ: Gold prices drop on U.S. Senate run-off elections

  • Gold traders are of the bias that the precious metal’s market is heading from neutral to bearish as recent price action reveal the potential head and shoulders chart pattern continues to form on the daily charts, and energy is building during consolidation.

Stephen Innes, Chief Global Market Strategist at Axi, in a note to Nairametrics, spoke in detail on macros that could put gold prices upside limited at least for the near term:

Specta

“Gold conceded ground to stronger dollar overnight but remains bid against escalating US-China tensions over Taiwan. Gold is struggling to break out. Most short-term fundamentals suggest upside from here, but extended speculative positioning is acting as a drag.

READ: Present day cryptos won’t last long – Bank of England

“We will see what progress is made on the US USD1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus package during the remainder of the week. Presumably, the smoother it passes, the more favorable for gold.”

What to expect: On the central bank front, the highlight is the FOMC decision. The FOMC meeting should be gold supportive, but not new news. Robust GDP data could weigh on gold if yields react higher.

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Commodities

Oil prices fall under pressure over rising number of COVID-19 cases in China

Brent crude was down by 0.24% to trade at $55.12 barrel, and WTI futures inched down by 0.10% to $52.22 a barrel.

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Crude Oil worker, OPEC, oil prices, Bulls hit back to support US crude oil amid panic sell- offs in global equity markets, Nigeria’s local oil players smashed by low crude oil prices

Oil prices drifted lower at the first trading session in London, recording a second consecutive trading session of losses, as the ever-rising number of COVID-19 cases, particularly in China, raise energy demand fears.

What you should know: At the time of writing this report, Brent crude was down by 0.24% to trade at $55.12 barrel, and West Texas Intermediate futures inched down by 0.10% to $52.22 a barrel.

China’s National Health Commission revealed that the world’s largest importer of oil recorded 124 cases on Jan. 24, up from 80 earlier, which is the worst wave of new COVID-19 infections seen since March 2020.

READ: COVID-19 mutant strain causes chaos at Oil markets

Stephen Innes, Chief Global Market Strategist at Axi, in a note to Nairametrics, spoke on current fundamentals weighing on oil prices, at least for the near term. In addition, he spoke on how the COVID-19 pandemic seemed to distort the bullish rally.

Specta

“The Lunar New Year headline heebie-jeebies did a number on oil prices into weeks end. Yet after hitting an intraday low US$54.48 per barrel, Brent crude managed to close above US$55 despite the clear demand impacts of lockdowns in Europe and additional measures in China.

READ: Oil traders weigh if COVID-19 support programs will buoy economic growth

The enormous question mark remains around demand and supply.

  • The street uniformly downgraded Q1 21 market in the world ex-China due to clear demand impacts of lockdowns in Europe to start the year. But last week it was back to the downward demand revision drawing board.
  • More worryingly, however, since Asia has been the backbone of physical crude oil demand, this time it was to down-ballot China consumption as lockdowns spread in the country just weeks ahead of the Lunar New Year travel surge.”

READ: Young Nigerians share their experiences on the cost of working from home

What to expect: Still, the one million barrels per day of additional Saudi curbs over February and March should alleviate the currently projected level of attrition in global demand recovery without much impact on the path of OECD inventory draws.

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