Nigeria’s inflation rate rose further in June 2020 to 12.56% (year-on-year), 0.16% points higher than the rate recorded in May 2020 (12.4%). This is according to the latest CPI report, released by the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics.
The report also showed that composite food index rose to 15.18% compared to 15.04% recorded in May 2020 while Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce that stood at 10.13% in June 2020 compared to 10.12% recorded in May 2020.
The composite food index stood at 15.18%, 0.14% points higher compared to 15.04% recorded in May 2020. Also, On month-on-month basis, the food sub-index increased by 1.48% in June 2020, up by 0.06% points from 1.42% recorded in May 2020.
This rise in the food index was caused by increases in prices of Bread and Cereals, Potatoes, Yam and other tubers, Fruits, Oils and Fats, Meat, Fish and Vegetables.
The ”All items less farm produce” or Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural
produce stood at 10.13% in June 2020, up by 0.01% when compared with 10.12% recorded in May 2020.
On month-on-month basis, the core sub-index increased by 0.86% in June 2020. This was down by 0.02% when compared with 0.88% increase recorded in May 2020.
Inflation drivers: The highest increases were recorded in prices of Medical services, Hospital services, Passenger transport by road, Pharmaceutical products, Motor cars, Paramedical services, Maintenance and repair of personal transport equipment, Bicycles, Motor cycles, Vehicle spare parts and Other services in respect of personal transport equipment.
Worst hit states
In June 2020, all items inflation on year on year basis was highest in Bauchi (15.02%) followed by Sokoto state (14.88% rate), Ebonyi (14.6%) others include Plateau (14.49%) and Taraba state (13.95%).
On the other hand, Kwara state (10.03%) recorded the least all items inflation rate (year-on-year) followed by Lagos (10.78%). Others on the list include; Cross River (10.95%), Abuja (11.02%) and Borno (11.11%).
In terms of food inflation on a year on year basis, Sokoto state (17.88%) recorded the highest followed by Plateau (17.04%) and Abuja (16.82%), while Bauchi (12.86%), Ogun (13.18%), and Lagos (13.46%) recorded the slowest rise.
What this latest inflation rate means is that the purchasing power of consumers has further worsened and their ability to afford the same quantity of goods or services has reduced significantly.
Transport fare watch: Motorcycle “Okada” commuters paid less in January 2021
Commuters on motorcycle per drop (Okada) paid less in January 2021 than they did in December 2020.
The average fare paid by commuters for journey by motorcycle per drop decreased by 11.60% month-on-month and increased by 95.22% year-on-year to N259.33 in January 2021 from N293.36 in December 2020, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) report for the month of January 2021.
According to the report, commuters in Taraba (N400.80), Yobe (N400.15) and Rivers (N400.00) paid the highest journey fare by motorcycle per drop while commuters in Adamawa (N84.22), Katsina (N134.90) and Kebbi (N152.05) paid the lowest journey fare by motorcycle per drop.
Other key highlights
- The average fare paid by commuters for bus journey intercity decreased by 0.25% month-on-month and increased by 39.55% year-on-year to N2,346.41 in January 2021 from N2,352.19 in December 2020.
- Commuters in Abuja FCT (N4,482.24), Lagos (N3,300.23) and Sokoto (N3,300.00) paid the highest bus journey fare intercity while commuters in Bayelsa (N1,600.45), Bauchi (N1,640.20) and Enugu (N1,687.45) paid the lowest bus journey fare within city.
- The average fare paid by commuters for bus journey within the city decreased by 0.66% month-on-month and increased by 74.75% year-on-year to N352.15 in January 2021 from N354.49 in December 2020.
- Commuters in Zamfara (N600.00), Bauchi (N522.75) and Ekiti (N458.77) paid the highest bus journey fare within city while commuters in Oyo (N189.46), Abia (N205.22) and Borno (N240.79) paid the lowest bus journey fare within city.
- The average fare paid by air passengers for specified routes single journey increased by 0.02% month-on-month and by 18.27% year-on-year to N36,463.65 in January 2021 from N36,454.59 in December 2020.
- Passengers in Anambra (N38,600.00), Cross River/Jigawa/Lagos (N38,500.00), Bauchi (N38,400.00) paid the highest airfare while States with lowest airfare were Akwa Ibom (N32,450.00), Sokoto (N33,700.00), and Gombe (N35,000.00).
- The average fare paid by passengers for water way passenger transport increased by 3.68% month-on-month and by 38.58% year-on-year to N786.19 in January 2021 from N758.27 in December 2020.
- Passengers in Rivers (N2,280.00), Delta (N2,250.45) and Bayelsa (N2,200.10) paid the highest fare by water while states with lowest fare by waterway passenger transport were Borno (N245.10), Gombe (N290.77) and Kebbi (N340.00).
Why this matters
Transportation cost takes a huge portion of budget for most lower/middle-class Nigerians and as well takes not less than 20% of their take-home pay packages.
The drop in fares paid by the commuters on motorcycle per drop (Okada) is a welcome development.
Transport by motorcycle (Okada) has been popularly adopted in most cities by businessmen, government workers, and students to overcome traffic congestion, and for the advantage that it can navigate roads that are inaccessible to automobiles and buses, particularly in villages and urban slums.
The moment Emefiele predicted Nigeria will be out of recession in Q4 2020
The CBN Governor had expressed optimism last year that the country was going to come out of recession in Q4 of 2020.
It is no longer news that Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, against all expectations exited recession as its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.11% in the last quarter of 2020 (year on year).
However, the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Godwin Emefiele, had expressed optimism last year that the country was going to come out of recession in the fourth quarter of 2020.
According to the report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), this is the first positive quarterly growth in the last 3 quarters following growth in telecommunications and agriculture which seem to make up for the sharp drop in oil prices and production.
The surprising rebound of the Nigerian economy is coming against the prediction of the country’s Minister for Finance, Budget and National Planning, Zainab Ahmed, who while speaking at the 26th Nigerian Economic Summit, said that Nigeria is expected to exit recession by the first quarter of 2021.
The CBN Governor had during the November 2020 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, predicted that the country was going to come out of recession by the fourth quarter of 2020.
This as he said that many analysts expressed doubts about that and were waiting to prove him wrong.
In a video during a press conference as seen by Nairametrics, Emefiele said, “You said that in November MPC, I was cautiously optimistic that fourth-quarter GDP will be positive thereby taking Nigeria out of a recession that I was aggressively optimistic that during the first quarter, we will exit recession. I am praying very seriously that my prayer should be heard because I know that people are waiting to put my neck on the chopping board to say that I do not know my work.’’
What you should know
- Despite Nigeria’s surprise exit from recession, experts have still expressed their reservations about the country’s weak economy which is faced with several challenges for businesses ranging from foreign exchange pressure, high unemployment level, increasing consumer prices, serious security challenges, weak investor confidence, etc.
- This is as the growth in GDP was primarily driven by the Information and Communication sector and the Agricultural sector.
- However, the surprise rebound of the economy means that Nigeria may recover faster than expected as crude oil prices and production increase this year.
- This also shows that the country needs to redouble its efforts in the growth of the non-oil sector which contributed 94.13% to Nigeria’s GDP.
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