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Debt Securities

Why interest rates on treasury bills, bonds crashed

The yoyo between debt and equity is likely to ensue as uncertainty remains in the forex market.

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Why interest rates on treasury bills, bonds crashed

The Nigerian debt market has been faced with a series of challenges, most of which were triggered by the worst pandemic recorded in human history Its prospects in attracting foreign portfolio investors were dampened as macros on Nigeria’s economy revealed a downtrend in the market, and this trend has only worsened in the past months. 

The fixed income market sustained its downward trajectory for the third consecutive month in June 2020 largely driven by excess liquidity as well as an overall scarcity of instruments in the market. Reports from several analysts indicate the demand for fixed income securities has increased considerably over the last 6 months driving down interest rates earned by investors. 

Victor Silas an Investment analyst told Nairametrics about the OMO bills liquidity for the month of June. He said“For June, fixed income rates were liquidity-driven following the ban of locals from OMO and limited investment outlets. OMO bills maturities are creating more liquidity for locals and it is finding its way to the bond market and Treasury bill.   

READ MORE: How to invest in uncertain times

“The 2050 trading below 11% yield and the 364-day Treasury bill closing at 3.4%. It just tells you there are a lot of liquidity concerns for locals.” 

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Most foreign portfolio investors based abroad are staying out of naira debt dominated securities; this shows that Nigeria’s debt markets are now controlled by local investors.  

Nigeria attracted just $67.9 million in Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) inflow for the month of April 2020, the lowest inflow recorded this year. A cursory look at the Central Bank data shows that FPI sharply reversed from $2.30 billion at the beginning of the year (January) to just $67.9 million inflow in April 2020. Nigeria like most emerging markets relies heavily on foreign portfolio investments to shore up its external reserves and manage its exchange rate position.   

Portfolio inflow into money market instruments fell from N1.6 billion and N1.4 billion in January and February respectively to just N229 billion and N49 million in April and May respectivelyOn the flip side, those that still have their investment stuck in Nigeria, have stayed away from any other type of investment except money market instruments such as bonds and treasury bills.  Most of the investors are waiting patiently for the central bank to fund their dollar purchase so they can exit. 

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READ MORE: Nigeria’s pension contributors add N100billion to pension asset

Issuers Market 

Emmanuel Orji Emerging Market/ Fixed Income Trader, COMERCIO PARTNERS spoke to Nairametrics on the performance of fixed income securities in June. He said;  

“Subsequently, the unexpected reduced sale at the June bond auction of NGN100 billion as against the NGN150 billion originally offered further strengthened the aggressive bullish run in the bond market.  

“The bond auction closed relatively strong as a result, with a bid to cover ratio of 3.6x and rates declining by 120bps, 70bps, and 45bps to print at 8.00%, 11.00%, and 12.15% across the 3-year, 5-year, and 30-year maturities respectively.  Note: BPS refers to basis points, a financial term for percentages. 100 basis point is equal to 1%. 

READ ALSO: Nigeria’s foreign debt has breached a 15-year trigger

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“As a result, yields for the benchmark securities monitored declined across all maturities on a month-on-month basis, with yields of the sovereign bonds with 3-year, 5-year, 10-year and 20-year maturities declining by 332 bps, 138 bps, 96 bps, and 138 bps to close at 5.64%, 7.13%, 9.76%, and 10.05% respectively.  

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“Given the amount of idle PFA cash sitting in bank placement (c. NGN1.5 trillion) and the sudden weakness in demand for equities, we expect the buying interest to persist in the near term, which should drive yields lower in the bonds market.”  

Nigerian fiscal stakeholders have resorted to borrowing domestically as opposed to seeking for funds abroad, another effect of the pandemic. This is expected to lead to an increase in the yields of FGN bonds in the short and mid-term horizon as the inward plan to seek funds locally intensifies. 

Where this leaves equities  

Concomitantly, the equities market benefitted from the apparent thirst for asset yielding investments in recent months. As yields for safer investment fell, investors shifted to the equities market taking advantage of the earning season often market by dividend payouts. Most stocks paid dividend yields in double digits following the stock market crash in March 2020.  

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But by June the market sell-offs ensued with investors moving funds out to secure stakes in corporate debt securities. The yoyo between debt and equity is likely to ensue as uncertainty remains in the forex market and the country’s stimulus plans.  

Some retail investors who spoke to Nairametrics insist they have abandoned the Nigerian Stock Market preferring to trade in cryptocurrencies or US stocks. The proliferation of intech supported investing apps has made cross border investing easier providing access to market far beyond the shores of Nigeria. 

 

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Olumide Adesina is a France-born Nigerian. He is a Certified Investment Trader, with more than 15 years of working expertise in Investment Trading and Financial Market Analysis. Member of the Chartered Financial Analyst Society. You can follow Olumide on Twitter @tokunboadesina or email [email protected]

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Companies

NB Plc to raise additional N20 billion from its N100 billion Commercial Paper

Nigerian Breweries has announced the continuation of its N100 billion Commercial Paper (CP) Issuance Programme.

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dividend, Nigerian Breweries reports reduced profits for first three quarters of 2019 , Analysis: Nigeria Breweries, the glory days are gone, Nigerian Breweries to raise additional N20 billion from its N100 billion CP programme

Nigerian Breweries has announced the continuation of its N100 billion Commercial Paper (CP) Issuance Programme in a bid to raise up to N20 billion to support its short term funding needs. The company has launched Series 9 and 10 of the programme for this purpose.

This information was disclosed in a notification signed by the Company’s Secretary, Uaboi G. Agbebaku, and sent to the Nigerian Stock Exchange.

The notification reads;

“[Nigerian Breweries Plc] is pleased to inform the Nigerian Stock Exchange and the investing public of the continuation of its “CP” (Commercial Paper) programme with the launch of Series 9 and 10 of the programme.

“Series 9 of the Commercial Paper programme would be for a tenor of 180 days, while Series 10 would be for 270 days. However, the launch of the CP opens today 23rd October 2020.”

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(READ MORE:Nigerian Breweries stock up by 58% since August )

What you should know

According to data obtained from Financial Market Dealers Quote (FMDQ), Nigerian Breweries has raised up to N90.12 billion since the start of the year.

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  • N52.76 billion was raised from Series 6 between February 12 to November 6, 2020.
  • N13.03 billion was raised from Series 7 from April 15 to October 14, 2020.
  • N24.33 billion was raised from Series 8 from April 15 to January 8, 2021.
  • The recent issuance of the Series 9 and 10 CP will bring the total funds raised to N110.12 billion.

Why it matters

  • The CP will help the company navigate through the recent impact of COVID-19 and other trade disruptions.
  • The programme will strengthen the balance sheet of the company, and enable the brewer to execute its plans while delivering value to customers and creating wealth for shareholders,
  • In like manner, the CP programme is expected to provide opportunities for non-equity investors to invest in the company and support its cost management initiatives.

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Debt Securities

Commercial Paper value appreciates by N243 billion YOY, hits N539.8 billion in H1, 2020

Commercial Paper value appreciated by 81.9% to N539.8 billion in 45 issuances as of H1, 2020.

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Commercial Paper value appreciates by N243 billion YOY, hits N539.8 billion in H1, 2020, Financial literacy campaign in Nigeria, Securities and Exchange Commission, National Insurance Commission, Dantata Success & Profitable Company

Commercial Paper value hits N539.8 billion as of June 2020, as the value appreciated by 81.9% from N296.8 billion in 44 issuances as of H1, 2019 to N539.8 billion in 45 issuances as of H1, 2020. This is according to a recent report by PWC titled, “Nigeria Capital Market Update.”

READ: CBN invests over N120 billion on 320,000 farmers across CTG within four years

As regards industry spread, the financial services sector accounted for 32% of the proceeds raised as of H1 2020, followed by the consumer goods sector representing 26% of total proceeds. ICT raised 19% and Industrial goods contributed 18%.

READ: Zenith Bank’s Profit After Tax in H1,2020 rises by 16.8% to N103.8 billion

In terms of yearly appreciation, Commercial Paper value has maintained an upward trend, recording N114 billion as of the end of 2016, N221 billion in 2017, N402 billion in 2018, and N540 billion in H1, 2020.

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What this means

Activities in the Commercial Paper market maintained its upward trajectory as more blue-chip companies continue to access short term funding from a diversified investor base, through the capital market and on favorable terms.

READ: TradeDepot raises $10 million in pre-Series B equity round

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What you should know

Commercial Paper is a commonly used type of unsecured, short-term debt instrument issued by corporations, typically for the financing of payroll, accounts payable and inventories, and meeting other short-term liabilities. Maturities typically last several days and rarely range longer than 270 days.

It is usually issued at a discount from face value and reflects prevailing market interest rates.

Explore Data on the Nairametrics Research Website

Use Advanced Financial Calculators on Nairametrics

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Debt Securities

Nigerian Treasury Bills drop to 2% per annum

The latest data from Nigeria’s Treasury bill auction shows that Nigeria’s 364-day reduced by 2%.

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The latest data from Nigeria’s Treasury bill auction shows that Nigeria’s 364-day reduced by 2%. On the other hand, Stop rates moderated slightly for the 91-day tenors and 182-day tenors. The 91-day bills had stop rates of 1 % and 182-day bills also went by 1%.

READ: Real estate: Experts lament over challenges in the industry

At the auction, the Debt Management Office (DMO) sold N12.76 billion on the 91-day paper, N4.5 billion on the 182-day, and N107.6 billion on the 364-day bill despite huge demand from Investors.

READ: PIB; Will the jinx be broken this time around?

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READ: Safest, regulated Cryptocurrency, Arcoin backed by U.S. Treasury securities

What you need to know

Basically, when the government goes to the financial markets to raise money, it can do it by issuing two types of debt instruments – Treasury Bills and Government Bonds. Treasury bills are issued when the government needs money for a short period, while Bonds are issued when it needs debt for more than say five years.

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  • The issuance of treasury bills is also used as a mechanism to control the circulation of funds in the economy.
  • Treasury bills have a face value of a certain amount, which is what they are actually worth.
  • However, they are sold for less. For example, a bill may be worth N10,000, but you would buy it for N9,600.
  • Every bill has a specified maturity date, which is when you receive the money back.
  • The government then pays you the full price of the bill (in this case N10,000), giving you the opportunity to earn N400 from your investment. The amount that you earn is considered as the interest, or your payment for lending money to the government.
  • The difference between the value of the bill and the amount you pay for it is called the discount rate and it is set as a percentage.

READ: Where to invest your N5m to N500m safely and securely

READ: National Assembly approves Federal Government’s plan to borrow $11 billion in 2021

What they are saying

Peter Omoregie, CFA, Head Proprietary Trading at CardinalStone Partners Limited, in a phone interview with Nairametrics, explained why investors oversubscribed Nigeria’s Treasury bills in spite of low rates.

“The CBN continues with de-leveraging its balance sheet and favoring its growth policies over the attraction of FPI money, which is good for businesses and the country at large. Surprisingly, we had a huge subscription on the long end at these low rates. The local institutional investors are addicted to Tbills like a junkie on cocaine, they don’t know how or when to stop.”

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READ: Real Estate Developers express fear over selection process of CBN’s N200 billion Housing Fund

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READ: COVID-19: How CBN policies helped prevent the collapse of the Nigerian economy – Oscar Onyema

Why this matters

The massive disparity between the subscriptions and the offers recorded suggests investors are willing to earn a negative real return, compared to the higher risk in other assets such as stocks and real estate. Basically, the CBN sells T-bills on a bi-weekly basis to investors and it is one of the safest investments available. Interests are paid upfront and the principal paid in full upon maturity.

Explore Data on the Nairametrics Research Website

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