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Business leaders talk on CBN unification of the Naira 

Business leaders have given their opinions on CBN’s plan to unify the exchange rate of the Naira.

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CBN Gov Godiwn Emefiele

Just recently, the CBN Governor, Godwin Emefiele revealed plans in unifying the naira’s currency exchange systems around the NAFEX rate. The Central Bank Governor said this at an Investors Conference organised by CitiBank.

Nairametrics spoke exclusively to business leaders in various fields of expertise on Nigeria’s central bank move to implement the naira’s unification, and they, in various opinions expressed their concerns. 

Elile Olutimayin, ACS, Managing Director at CardinalStone Securities Limited: 

The convergence of the multiple exchange rates towards the NAFEX rate is a much welcome development and long overdue. Firstly, this would eliminate FX arbitrage, ease the dire supply of the greenback, and ensure a more transparent FX market. 

The demand for FX in the last couple of years have been more speculative than real. The multiple exchange rates have caused a lot of distortion in price, affected businesses, made planning tougher, and encouraged corruption. 

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A unified exchange rate has been one of the persistent requests of Foreign Investors (both FDIs and FPIs). For FPIs, who are major investors in the Nigerian capital market, the perception of an expensive Naira, as well as investor’s outlook of a struggling economy has culminated in c. N200bn worth of net outflows from the equities market in the last 18 months. We expect a unified exchange rate to trigger interest in the capital market and could help stem capital flight. 

READ MORE: 3 Crypto exchanges control about 14.3% circulating BTC supply

Engr. Debo Adejana, REDAN South-West Chairman, MD/CEO, Realty Point Limited: 

I sincerely welcome the planned unified currency exchange rate system. In my own opinion the overall impact on businesses and to the economy as a whole will be positive. The multiple rate system we have operated for some time is not sustainable. CBN’s attempt at defending the Naira has not been successful and cannot be continued in the face of current pressing economic realities. 

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Yes, the immediate effect will be a further devaluation of Naira and inflation but the eventful effect will be increased inflow of FDIs, elimination of cheap money as a result of round-tripping by the privileged few, uniformity of production cost across the board, growth in our foreign exchange reserve among other things. 

For me as a developer, we expect property prices to go up because most finishing components are imported. This can also give rise to a situation where we start to look inward for finishing materials especially for low-income housing or continue the emerging trend of delivering carcasses (shell structures) so buyers can enjoy the prerogative of finishing to their taste. 

So, I welcome the idea. It is in fact a must-do for us at this crossroad if we want to successfully navigate this economic season.  

Tomie Balogun, The Millennial Investor and Founder of The Green Investment Club:

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The plan to unify the multiple exchange rates along the NAFEX rate is long overdue. It will eliminate the recurring round-tripping or arbitrage in the market and increase overall investor confidence in the country. However, will the plan to end multiple exchange rates eliminate the FX black market?  

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The restriction list that bans forex for 41 items needs to be eliminated to achieve this. As long as there are restrictions on certain items, the traders will have no choice but to seek forex from a black market. 

While I understand the urgent need to implement the exchange rate unification, we must also consider how it will affect the everyday man who will have to pay more to buy basic goods due to restrictions. In addition to unifying the exchange rate, we need a medium to long term phased-out economic plan to support increased local production.  

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That way, they can impose tariffs on certain imports to restrict Forex demand and make importation of certain goods uneconomical. 

Olasiji Omotayo, Chief Risk Officer, in a Leading Pension Fund Administrator:  

My view is that they are telling us informally that more devaluation is coming. The official rate may be moved to the I&E level and that should put more pressure on the I&E rate too as that then becomes the floor.  

But the bigger question is whether the CBN will be able to meet market demand at that level. If otherwise, there will be no convergence but rather a further depreciation in that market However, I expect a little moderation from the parallel market as supply should improve at the I&E rate. Nigerian financial securities should benefit as naira becomes cheaper. 

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Silas Ozoya, Managing Partner, SUBA Capital: 

When I saw that update on this, I didn’t know exactly how to feel because the BDC systems create employment for a lot of people and unification might put them out of work.  

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However, on the flip side, it stabilizes the market for business owners, contractors, and individuals who would now rather process naira to dollar exchange more in the bank than in the black market. This means increased revenue for banks via charges. 

 

Olumide Adesina is a France-born Nigerian. He is a Certified Investment Trader, with more than 15 years of working expertise in Investment trading. Follow Olumide on Twitter @tokunboadesina or email [email protected] He is a Member of the Chartered Financial Analyst Society.

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Currencies

Daily Parallel Market Exchange Rate – ₦470/$1

The US dollar closed at ₦470/US$1 in the parallel market

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Forex, NIGERIA: Daily Parallel Market, Exchange Rate

The exchange rate between the naira and the US dollar for today (Tuesday, January 19th 2021), closed at 470/US$1 in the parallel market. The rate had also closed at 470/US$1 on Monday, January 18th 2021.

  • Naira:470
  • Dollar: $1
  • Date: January 19th, 2021

The exchange rate between the naira and the British pound sterling closed at ₦630/₤1 on Tuesday, January 19th 2021. The rate had closed at ₦630/₤1 on Monday, January 18th 2021.

  • Naira: ₦630
  • Pounds Sterling: ₤1
  • Date: January 19th, 2021

Explore Economic Research Data From Nairametrics on Nairalytics

The exchange rate between the naira and the European euro closed at ₦575/€1 on Tuesday, January 19th 2021. The rate had also closed at ₦575/€1 on Monday, January 18th 2021.

  • Naira: ₦575
  • Euro: €1
  • Date: January 19th, 2021

Activity: US Dollar closed at 470/US$1 in the parallel market

Specta

READ ALSO: The risk of buying Forex at black market rate of N460/$1 

DateCurrencyBuy(AM)Sell(AM)Buy(PM)Sell(PM)Volatility
1/19/2021Dollar465470465470Low
1/19/2021Pounds625630625630Low
1/19/2021Euro570575570575Low
1/18/2021Dollar465470465470Low
1/18/2021Pounds625630625630Low
1/18/2021Euro570575570575Low
1/15/2021Dollar465470465470Low
1/15/2021Pounds620625620625Low
1/15/2021Euro565570565570Low
1/14/2021Dollar465470465470Low
1/14/2021Pounds620625620625Low
1/14/2021Euro565570565570Low
1/13/2021Dollar465470465470Low
1/13/2021Pounds620625620625Low
1/13/2021Euro565570565570Low
1/12/2021Dollar460465460465Low
1/12/2021Pounds610615610615Low
1/12/2021Euro560565560565Low
1/11/2021Dollar460465460465Low
1/11/2021Pounds610615610615Low
1/11/2021Euro560565560565Low
1/8/2021Dollar460465460465Low
1/8/2021Pounds610615610615Low
1/8/2021Euro560565560565Low
1/7/2021Dollar460465460465Low
1/7/2021Pounds610615610615Low
1/7/2021Euro560565560565Low
1/6/2021Dollar460465460465Low
1/6/2021Pounds610615610615Low
1/6/2021Euro560565560565Low
1/5/2021Dollar460465460465Low
1/5/2021Pounds610615610615Low
1/5/2021Euro560565560565Low
1/4/2021Dollar460465460465Low
1/4/2021Pounds610615610615Low
1/4/2021Euro560565560565Low
1/1/2021Dollar455460455460Low
1/1/2021Pounds610615610615Low
1/1/2021Euro560565560565Low
12/31/2020Dollar455460455460Low
12/31/2020Pounds610615610615Low
12/31/2020Euro560565560565Low
12/30/2020Dollar455460455460Low
12/30/2020Pounds610615610615Low
12/30/2020Euro560565560565Low
12/29/2020Dollar455460455460Low
12/29/2020Pounds610615610615Low
12/29/2020Euro560565560565Low
12/28/2020Dollar455460455460Low
12/28/2020Pounds610615610615low
12/28/2020Euro560565560565Low
12/25/2020Dollar465470465470Low
12/25/2020Pounds610615610615Low
12/25/2020Euro560565560565Low
12/24/2020Dollar465470465470Low
12/24/2020Pounds610615610615Low
12/24/2020Euro560565560565Low
12/23/2020Dollar465470465470Low
12/23/2020Pounds610615610615Low
12/23/2020Euro560565560565Low
12/22/2020Dollar465470465470Low
12/22/2020Pounds610615610615Low
12/22/2020Euro560565560565Low
12/21/2020Dollar465470465470Low
12/21/2020Pounds610615610615Low
12/21/2020Euro560565560565Low
12/18/2020Dollar465470465470Low
12/18/2020Pounds610615610615Low
12/18/2020Euro560565560565Low
12/17/2020Dollar465470465470Low
12/17/2020Pounds610615610615Low
12/17/2020Euro560565560565Low
12/16/2020Dollar465470465470Low
12/16/2020Pounds610615610615Low
12/16/2020Euro560565560565Low
12/15/2020Dollar465470465470Low
12/15/2020Pounds610615610615Low
12/15/2020Euro560565560565Low
12/14/2020Dollar465470465470Low
12/14/2020Pounds610615610615Low
12/14/2020Euro560565560565Low
12/11/2020 0:00Dollar465470465470Low
12/11/2020 0:00Pounds610615610615Low
12/11/2020 0:00Euro560565560565Low
12/10/2020 0:00Dollar465470465470Low
12/10/2020 0:00Pounds610615610615Low
12/10/2020 0:00Euro560565560565Low
12/9/2020 0:00Dollar470475470475Low
12/9/2020 0:00Pounds605610605610Low
12/9/2020 0:00Euro555560555560Low
12/8/2020 0:00Dollar470475470475Low
12/8/2020 0:00Pounds605610605610Low
12/8/2020 0:00Euro555560555560Low
12/7/2020 0:00Dollar465470465470Low
12/7/2020 0:00Pounds615620615620Low
12/7/2020 0:00Euro555560555560Low
12/4/2020 0:00Dollar465470465470Low
12/4/2020 0:00Pounds615620615620Low
12/4/2020 0:00Euro555560555560Low
12/3/2020 0:00Dollar465470465470Low
12/3/2020 0:00Pounds615620615620Low
12/3/2020 0:00Euro555560555560Low
12/2/2020 0:00Dollar485495485495Low
12/2/2020 0:00Pounds630635630635Low
12/2/2020 0:00Euro570575570575Low
12/1/2020 0:00Dollar485495485495Low
12/1/2020 0:00Pounds630635630635Low
12/1/2020 0:00Euro570575570575Low
11/30/2020Dollar485495485495Low
11/30/2020Pounds630635630635Low
11/30/2020Euro565570565570Low
11/27/2020Dollar485490485490Low
11/27/2020Pounds615620615620Low
11/27/2020Euro565570565570Low
11/26/2020Dollar475480475480Low
11/26/2020Pounds600605600605Low
11/26/2020Euro555560555560Low
11/25/2020Dollar475480475480Low
11/25/2020Pounds600605600605Low
11/25/2020Euro555560555560Low
11/24/2020Dollar475480475480Low
11/24/2020Pounds600605600605Low
11/24/2020Euro555560555560Low
11/23/2020Dollar475480475480Low
11/23/2020Pounds600605600605Low
11/23/2020Euro555560555560Low
11/20/2020Dollar465470465470Low
11/20/2020Pounds600605600605Low
11/20/2020Euro555560555560Low
11/19/2020Dollar465470465470Low
11/19/2020Pounds600605600605Low
11/19/2020Euro555560555560Low
11/18/2020Dollar465470465470Low
11/18/2020Pounds600605600605Low
11/18/2020Euro555560555560Low
11/17/2020Dollar465470465470Low
11/17/2020Pounds600605600605Low
11/17/2020Euro555560555560Low
11/16/2020Dollar455460455460Low
11/16/2020Pounds585590585590Low
11/16/2020Euro535540535540Low
11/13/2020Dollar455460455460Low
11/13/2020Pounds585590585590Low
11/13/2020Euro535540535540Low
11/12/2020 0:00Dollar455460455460Low
11/12/2020 0:00Pounds585590585590Low
11/12/2020 0:00Euro535540535540Low
11/11/2020 0:00Dollar455460455460Low
11/11/2020 0:00Pounds585590585590Low
11/11/2020 0:00Euro535540535540Low
11/10/2020 0:00Dollar457462457462Low
11/10/2020 0:00Pounds583587583587Low
11/10/2020 0:00Euro535540535540Low
11/9/2020 0:00Dollar457462457462Low
11/9/2020 0:00Pounds585590585590Low
11/9/2020 0:00Euro535540535540Low
11/6/2020 0:00Dollar457462457462Low
11/6/2020 0:00Pounds585590585590Low
11/6/2020 0:00Euro535540535540Low
11/5/2020 0:00Dollar457462457462Low
11/5/2020 0:00Pounds585590585590Low
11/5/2020 0:00Euro535540535540Low
11/4/2020 0:00Dollar457462457462Low
11/4/2020 0:00Pounds585590585590Low
11/4/2020 0:00Euro535540535540Low
11/3/2020 0:00Dollar457462457462Low
11/3/2020 0:00Pounds585590585590Low
11/3/2020 0:00Euro535540535540Low
11/2/2020 0:00Dollar457460457460Low
11/2/2020 0:00Pounds585590585590Low
11/2/2020 0:00Euro530535530535Low
10/30/2020Dollar457460457460Low
10/30/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/30/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/29/2020Dollar457460457460Low
10/29/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/29/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/28/2020Dollar457460457460Low
10/28/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/28/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/27/2020Dollar457461457461Low
10/27/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/27/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/26/2020Dollar457461457461Low
10/26/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/26/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/23/2020Dollar457461457461Low
10/23/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/23/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/22/2020Dollar457461457461Low
10/22/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/22/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/21/2020Dollar456460456460Low
10/21/2020Pounds582593582593Low
10/21/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/20/2020Dollar456460456460Low
10/20/2020Pounds582593582593Low
10/20/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/19/2020Dollar455460455460Low
10/19/2020Pounds583592583592Low
10/19/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/16/2020Dollar455460455460Low
10/16/2020Pounds583592583592Low
10/16/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/15/2020Dollar455460455460Low
10/15/2020Pounds583592583592Low
10/15/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/14/2020Dollar455460455460Low
10/14/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/14/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/13/2020Dollar453458455460Low
10/13/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/13/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/12/2020 0:00Dollar452458452458Low
10/12/2020 0:00Pounds580585580585Low
10/12/2020 0:00Euro530535530535Low
10/9/2020 0:00Dollar452457452457Low
10/9/2020 0:00Pounds585590585590Low
10/9/2020 0:00Euro535540535540Low
10/8/2020 0:00Dollar452457452457Low
10/8/2020 0:00Pounds585590585590Low
10/8/2020 0:00Euro535540535540Low
10/7/2020 0:00Dollar452457452457Low
10/7/2020 0:00Pounds585590585590Low
10/7/2020 0:00Euro535540535540Low
10/6/2020 0:00Dollar452457452457Low
10/6/2020 0:00Pounds580585580585Low
10/6/2020 0:00Euro535540535540Low
10/5/2020 0:00Dollar452455452455Low
10/5/2020 0:00Pounds570580570580Low
10/5/2020 0:00Euro540545540545Low
10/2/2020 0:00Dollar460465460465Low
10/2/2020 0:00Pounds575585575585Low
10/2/2020 0:00Euro530540530540Low
10/1/2020 0:00Dollar460465460465Low
10/1/2020 0:00Pounds575585575585Low
10/1/2020 0:00Euro530540530540Low
9/30/2020Dollar460465460465Low
9/30/2020Pounds570580570580Low
9/30/2020Euro530535530535Low
9/29/2020Dollar460465460465Low
9/29/2020Pounds565575570580Low
9/29/2020Euro530535530535Low
9/28/2020Dollar460465460465Low
9/28/2020Pounds565570565570Low
9/28/2020Euro530535530535Low
9/25/2020Dollar460465460465Low
9/25/2020Pounds565575565575Low
9/25/2020Euro535540535540Low
9/24/2020Dollar460465460465Low
9/24/2020Pounds565570565570Low
9/24/2020Euro535540535540Low
9/23/2020Dollar455460455460Low
9/23/2020Pounds580585580585Low
9/23/2020Euro535540535540Low
9/22/2020Dollar455460455460Low
9/22/2020Pounds575585575580Low
9/22/2020Euro530535530535Low
9/21/2020Dollar453455450455Low
9/21/2020Pounds565570565570Low
9/21/2020Euro525530525530Low
9/18/2020Dollar450460450460Low
9/18/2020Pounds575595575595Low
9/18/2020Euro535540535540Low
9/17/2020Dollar455460455460Low
9/17/2020Pounds570580570580Low
9/17/2020Euro530535530535Low
9/16/2020Dollar450460450460Low
9/16/2020Pounds565570565570Low
9/16/2020Euro525530525530Low
9/15/2020Dollar450460450460Low
9/15/2020Pounds565570565570Low
9/15/2020Euro525530525530Low
9/14/2020Dollar445455445455Low
9/14/2020Pounds560575560575Low
9/14/2020Euro515525515525Low
9/11/2020 0:00Dollar450455450455Low
9/11/2020 0:00Pounds555565555565Low
9/11/2020 0:00Euro525530525530Low
9/10/2020 0:00Dollar455460455460Low
9/10/2020 0:00Pounds545560545560Low
9/10/2020 0:00Euro525530525530Low
9/9/2020 0:00Dollar430440430440Low
9/9/2020 0:00Pounds540555540555Low
9/9/2020 0:00Euro500510500510Low
9/8/2020 0:00Dollar435440435440Low
9/8/2020 0:00Pounds540550540550Low
9/8/2020 0:00Euro505515505515Low
9/7/2020 0:00Dollar435440435440Low
9/7/2020 0:00Pounds525530525530Low
9/7/2020 0:00Euro505515505515Low
9/4/2020 0:00Dollar425440425440Low
9/4/2020 0:00Pounds560580560580Low
9/4/2020 0:00Euro505515505515Low
9/3/2020 0:00Dollar425440425440Low
9/3/2020 0:00Pounds560580560580Low
9/3/2020 0:00Euro520535505515High
9/2/2020 0:00Dollar425440425440Low
9/2/2020 0:00Pounds570580560580Low
9/2/2020 0:00Euro535540520535Low
9/1/2020 0:00Dollar462465435440High
9/1/2020 0:00Pounds565575570580Low
9/1/2020 0:00Euro535540535540Low
8/31/2020Dollar463470460465High
8/31/2020Pounds585595580590Low
8/31/2020Euro540545540545Low
8/28/2020Dollar472477472477Low
8/28/2020Pounds580595580595Low
8/28/2020Euro545552545552Low
8/27/2020Dollar472477472477Low
8/27/2020Pounds580590580590Low
8/27/2020Euro542552542552Low
8/26/2020Dollar472477472477Low
8/26/2020Pounds580590580590Low
8/26/2020Euro542552542552Low
8/25/2020Dollar472477472477Low
8/25/2020Pounds575585575585Low
8/25/2020Euro542552542552Low
8/24/2020Dollar473477473477Low
8/24/2020Pounds580590580590Low
8/24/2020Euro542550542550Low
8/21/2020Dollar474477474477Low
8/21/2020Pounds575585575585Low
8/21/2020Euro545550545550Low
8/20/2020Dollar475478473477Low
8/20/2020Pounds575585575585Low
8/20/2020Euro540550540550Low
8/19/2020Dollar475480475480Low
8/19/2020Pounds575585575585Low
8/19/2020Euro540550540550Low
8/18/2020Dollar477480477480Low
8/18/2020Pounds575580575580Low
8/18/2020Euro545550545550Low
8/17/2020Dollar470475470475Low
8/17/2020Pounds580590580590Low
8/17/2020Euro525535525535Low
8/14/2020Dollar470475470475Low
8/14/2020Pounds570580570580Low
8/14/2020Euro525535520535Low
8/13/2020Dollar470475470475Low
8/13/2020Pounds570575565575Low
8/13/2020Euro525530520530Low
8/12/2020 0:00Dollar470475470475Low
8/12/2020 0:00Pounds570575570575Low
8/12/2020 0:00Euro520530520530Low
8/11/2020 0:00Dollar477485477485Low
8/11/2020 0:00Pounds572584572584Low
8/11/2020 0:00Euro510523520535Low
8/10/2020 0:00Dollar477485477485Low
8/10/2020 0:00Pounds572584572584Low
8/10/2020 0:00Euro510523520535High
8/7/2020 0:00Dollar475486475486Low
8/7/2020 0:00Pounds578585578585Low
8/7/2020 0:00Euro536550536550Low
8/6/2020 0:00Dollar470480475486Low
8/6/2020 0:00Pounds575587578585Low
8/6/2020 0:00Euro534545536550Low
8/5/2020 0:00Dollar465475473483Low
8/5/2020 0:00Pounds570580575587Low
8/5/2020 0:00Euro525540532545Low
8/4/2020 0:00Dollar470480470480Low
8/4/2020 0:00Pounds560570560570Low
8/4/2020 0:00Euro520530520530Low
8/3/2020 0:00Dollar470480470480Low
8/3/2020 0:00Pounds560570560570Low
8/3/2020 0:00Euro520530520530Low
7/31/2020Dollar470480470485High
7/31/2020Pounds570582575585Low
7/31/2020Euro500520505520Low
7/30/2020Dollar470490470485High
7/30/2020Pounds550570550580High
7/30/2020Euro495520500525High
7/29/2020Dollar468475467475Low
7/29/2020Pounds575585580590Low
7/29/2020Euro530540530545Low
7/28/2020Dollar469475467475Low
7/28/2020Pounds575593580595Low
7/28/2020Euro550560540550Low
7/27/2020Dollar465473466473Low
7/27/2020Pounds570580575583Low
7/27/2020Euro510520515530Low
7/24/2020Dollar465472464472Low
7/24/2020Pounds570580572582Low
7/24/2020Euro510520505520Low
7/23/2020Dollar460472465472Low
7/23/2020Pounds565575565580Low
7/23/2020Euro510520505520Low
7/22/2020Dollar465472465472Low
7/22/2020Pounds565575560578Low
7/22/2020Euro510525510528Low
7/21/2020Dollar461472462472Low
7/21/2020Pounds560573560575Low
7/21/2020Euro498515500520Low
7/20/2020Dollar460473462473Low
7/20/2020Pounds550570555575Low
7/20/2020Euro495505500510Low
7/17/2020Dollar462470460470Low
7/17/2020Pounds560570558570Low
7/17/2020Euro490500490500Low
7/16/2020Dollar460470460470Low
7/16/2020Pounds558565560570Low
7/16/2020Euro485495485499Low
7/15/2020Dollar455465455470Low
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Data is collated from various black market dealers on the mainland and island parts of Lagos State where forex is sold. The price quoted daily on this page represents the average price obtained by our Research Team. Our prices are a guide and could be slightly different from the price you get when you eventually decide to buy or sell. This is a daily tracker and updated close of business. See table below for parallel market exchange rate dating to 2019.

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Currencies

Naira gains at NAFEX window as external reserves increase by $1 billion

The exchange rate appreciated on Monday as external reserves cross $36.3 billion

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Dollar, Exchange rate, FOREX, NAFEX market turnover drop by 59%, Naira crashes to N470/$1 as currency uncertainty worsens 

On January 18, 2021, the exchange rate between the naira and the dollar appreciated closing at N393.83/$1 at the NAFEX (I&E Window) where forex is traded officially.

This is as Nigeria’s external reserves added $1 billion in 15 days to rise to $36.3 billion.

Also, the exchange rate at the black market where forex traded unofficially maintained stability at N475/$1. The exchange rate at the parallel market closed at N475/$1 on the previous trading day of January 14, 2021.

READ: CBN Governor says Nigeria’s external reserves sufficient to cover 7-months import

This is as the Central Bank of Nigeria sustains its intervention across the foreign exchange markets to meet the needs of manufacturers and end-users who need dollars for their medical trips, school fees payments, travel allowances, and others.

Specta

The apex bank has also resumed its dollar sales to Bureau De Change operators.

The exchange rate disparity between the parallel market and the official market is about N81.17, representing a 16.9% devaluation differential.

READ: CBN considers interest rate cut as trade, economy decline over Coronavirus

The Naira appreciated against the dollar at the Investors and Exporters (I&E) window on Monday, closing at N393.83/$1. This represents an 84 kobo gain when compared to the N394.67/$1 that it closed on the previous trading day.

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  • The opening indicative rate was N394.07 to a dollar on Monday, representing a 95 kobo drop when compared to the N393.12 that was recorded on Friday, January 15, 2021.
  • The N415.76 to a dollar was the highest rate during intra-day trading before it closed at N393.83 to a dollar. It also sold for as low as N388/$1 during intra-day trading.
  • Forex turnover at the Investor and Exporters (I&E) window increased by 71.2% on Monday, January 18, 2021.
  • According to the data tracked by Nairametrics from FMDQ, forex turnover rose from $40.31 million on Friday, January 15, 2021, to $69 million on Monday, January 18, 2021.
  • The average daily forex sale for last week was about $169.93 million, which represents a huge increase from the $34.5 million that was recorded the previous week.
  • The exchange rate is still being affected by low oil prices, dollar scarcity, a backlog of forex demand, and a shaky economy that has been hit by the coronavirus pandemic.
  • There are fears that the exchange rate at the black market might be under pressure in the coming weeks as importers scramble for dollars to meet their demands.

READ: Nigeria’s External Reserves drop by $2.9 billion, hit 10-month low 

Oil price steady rise

Brent crude oil price is currently at $54.88 per barrel on Monday, as it moves towards the $60 mark, a strong sign that global demand could sustain price increases in 2021.

  • Nigeria’s crude oil price benchmark for 2020 was $40 while it projected an oil production output of 1.8 million barrels per day.
  • Nigeria has a production capacity of 2.5 million barrels per day but is subject to OPEC’s crude oil production cuts, which are expected to help sustain higher oil prices.
  • The higher oil prices and steady production output have positively impacted Nigeria’s external reserves, rising sharply to $36.304 million according to central bank data dated January 14, 2020.
  • This is the highest level since July 2020 and a sign that higher oil prices and steady output levels may be contributing significantly to Nigeria’s foreign exchange position.

READ: Nigeria’s external reserve drop by $261 million in 15 days, oil firms to sell forex to CBN 

Nigeria rising external reserves

  • The external reserve has risen to $36.3 billion as of January 15, 2021, suggesting that the government may have taken receipt of the $1-1.5 billion World Bank Loan.
  • The external reserves have increased by  $1 billion since December 31, 2020, when it closed the year at $35.3 billion.
  • The unification of the exchange rate was previously cited as a major requirement for receiving the world bank facility.
  • Nigeria needs the external reserves to hit $40 billion if it is to adequately meet some of the pent up demand that has piled up since 2020 when oil prices crashed and the pandemic caused major economic lockdowns.

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Currencies

Nigeria: Pressure on FX to continue in 2021 – Report

Pressure on FX will continue in 2021 as a result of thin reserve buffers and recovering domestic demands.

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Foreign Exchange: FX demand backlog, Naira gains against the dollar at I&E window, forex liquidity up by 66% 

EFG Hermes has revealed that pressure on FX will continue in 2021 as a result of thin reserve buffers and recovering domestic demands.

This is contained in its recently released report, 2021 The Year Ahead – Is The Recovery In The Price?

The company envisages that adjustment in the country’s current setting is driven primarily by its view that the country’s FX conditions are likely to remain tight in 2021.

READ: EFG Hermes concludes advisory on Al Habib Group’s $700 million IPO

Further noting that higher oil prices – with a USD55/bbl forecast for 2021 – would still fall short of providing the adequate liquidity needed to ease FX shortages.

Specta

According to the company, despite Nigeria’s economy facing a twin-problem of the pandemic shock and lower oil prices, it believes the country is attempting recovery with very few buffers, leaving the economy vulnerable to further shocks.

With rates depressed as they are, the country stands no chance in attracting foreign portfolio investments, which were key in easing liquidity shortages back in 2017.

READ: Central Bank says monetary policy not to blame for rising food cost

What they are saying

The report notes that:

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  • Inflexible currency policy leaves the system plagued with backlogs and a parallel market that is trading at a +20% premium, with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) adopting a policy of reserve conservation (vehemently defending the $35 billion level).
  • “Chronic fiscal problems, mostly in the form of weak revenue collection, has rendered the fiscal channel broken, with a debt service burden ratio of 80%.
  • “The country’s macro position has been further complicated by the absence of major reform initiatives by the government, as a result, depriving it of much-needed financial support. Out of a $6.9 billion package, the country only received $3.4 billion from the IMF, with USD3.5bn from the World Bank and African Development Bank.”

READ: Investors channel funds to forex, equity after OMO ban- Report

What EFG Hermes is advising

  • The report acknowledges that the government has taken certain steps to reform the economy, including de-regulation of fuel prices, and the devaluation of currency by the CBN a couple of times. However, outcomes differ from forecasts, further exposing the economy to highly vulnerable external shocks.
  • The company sees the current policy mix of high inflation, highly depressed rates, overvalued official exchange rate and various monetary policy regulations (mostly on banks’ liquidity) as highly unsustainable, contending that something must be done this year.
  • The company, therefore, asserts that interest rates has to be the target and should jack up from their current near-zero level.
  • The recently approved $1.5 billion loan from the World Bank, as well as a potential Eurobond issuance, are likely to ease short-term FX pressures. Nevertheless, these funds are unlikely to be a game changer and FX pressure would fundamentally require authorities to continue with import controls and an overall tight monetary policy.

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